Anatomy of a Keeper Draft
November 8, 2010
Whenever I have been involved in an expert league draft, I have always
found it interesting to hear/read the critiques of the bidding, as well
as the analysis/rating of the resulting teams. With a keeper
draft, it's even more interesting because salary inflation is such a
critical aspect of the pricing, yet is completely ignored in most of
the ad hoc evaluations.
In all the drafts in which I have participated, I wrote down the picks
as
they happened so I could use them as both reference points for mistakes
I
may have made, but also as data points for tendencies from my fellow
competitors. Normally I don't share this information widely but I
found the most recent XFL draft so intriguing that I thought it would
be fun to give an insider's perspective on how these things play out
and offer possible explanations for the results.
First, we must begin with the keeper lists. All players have
their salaries increase from the previous year except for players who
have accumulated less than 50 at bats or 10 innings pitched in the
major leagues. Players who were drafted under those circumstances
see their salaries increase yearly by $3. All others increase by
$5. Here are the
pre-draft rosters.
As you can see, there are a lot of empty spaces under the catching
position. Nineteen, all totaled. Given the sparse number
of impact catchers, bidding for catchers would be very aggressive,
driving up prices for the best of them into the stratosphere where
5-tool outfielders live. There would also be heavy demand on
middle infielders and closers. Given the relative scarcity of
quality in that regard, the best would go for a premium, at least in
theory. Lastly, I saw only two premium outfielders - Matt
Holliday and Carl Crawford - available so those two guys would draw a
lot of money off the table. Sure, there are plenty of other
talented outfielders, like Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran but they
had questions about their future performance, either coming off a
down year or an injury-diminished season.
There were four premium first baseman - Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder,
Mark Teixeira and Adam Dunn - who should command big money ($40+) and
one premium starting pitcher, CC Sabathia. Third base really only
had one premium name available - Alex Rodriguez - but there were a
number of decent options after him. So with that in mind, I
thought demand would be pretty light as many of the pitching and corner
spots were already filled.
So my strategy was to toss out as many big money names as possible in
order to drain the coffers and then sneak in to grab Derrek Lee coming
off an injury-plagued year, but who should be completely healthy in
2011, My hope was to get him for $25-30. I also wanted to
come away with one top closer, either Joe Nathan or Brian Wilson, both
of whom I would pay up to $20 for. I also needed to find some
cheap outfield speed. And lastly, I wanted to grab one second
tier starter with first tier potential, someone like Ricky Nolasco,
Javier Vazquez, etc., for about $15 and then fill in the
rest of the roster in the end game with $1-3 upside plays.
One last note before I get into the draft itself. Last year I had
Miguel Montero on my squad and I seriously considered protecting him at
$11. I looked at his second half performance the last two year
and saw that his command of the strikezone deteriorated each year so I
wasn't completely sold on the notion that next year was going to be his
breakout year. It might well be, but I thought I could find a
comparable catcher capable of hitting 10-15 homers with an on base of
.340 for less than $11, like Chris Iannetta or Alex Avila. Both
guys were coming off disappointing seasons and I felt like bidding
would be muted on them. And I already had Derek Norris as a farm
player, who probably will be moved from catching when he eventually
makes the majors but not before, so he'll still qualify as a catcher
for at least a year.
OK, so here's what went down:
1st Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
Sabathia $27
Kreutzer
Erickson
Iannetta $10
Erickson
Feldman
Crawford
$46 Van Hook
Kreutzer
Teixeira $39 Wiseguys
McCaffery
Pujols $64
Moyer
Michaels AJ
Burnett $4 Michaels
Dennis M.
Rivera $18 Wiseguys
Ambrosius C.
Figgins $19 Feldman
Zola
Papelbon $12 Drooker
Moyer A
Rod $43
Shandler
Van Hook
Garza $20
Wiseguys
Drooker
Rollins $27 Erickson
Walton
Jeter
$22 Feldman
Shandler
Holliday $49 Feldman
Wood
McCann $31
Erickson
Just to confirm your suspicions, the "Toss" is the person who threw out
the player for bidding, and the "Bidder" is the person who won the
bidding. Anyway, I was a bit alarmed when Sabathia went for $27
(last year he went for $32) and then my primary target for catcher was
thrown out as the second player in the draft. There was simply
too much money in the coffers for me to get into a bidding war this
early so I had to let him go for $10. When Crawford and Teixeira
went for incredibly reasonable prices - I was expecting Tex to surge
into the mid-40s - I started to get really worried that there would be
too much money on the table by the time it got to my guys and I would
have to pick between having a good first baseman or having a rest of
the team. The Pujols bid was not at all surprising given that he
was protected the previous year for $68. Through the first ten
names thrown out, there was really no sign that money was going to come
out or that inflation was having an impact. Other than the Pujols
bid, these looked like bids one would find at a regular single-season
mixed league draft. It wasn't until the bidding for Holliday that
I felt that maybe the early rounds were going to correct some of the
pre-draft inflation.
2nd Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
Dunn $39
Shandler
Erickson
Montero $19
Wiseguys
Feldman Doumit
$13 VanHook
Kreutzer N. Walker
$17 Walton
McCaffery G.
Sizemore $30 Winick
Michaels
Cervelli $5
Walton
Dennis B.
Wilson $19 Wood
Ambrosius Broxton
$12 Shandler
Zola
Napoli $23
Dennis
Moyer R.
Martin $11 Michaels
VanHook
Fielder
$40 Kreutzer
Drooker
Kendrick $16 Ambrosius
Walton Y.
Molina $12 Ambrosius
Shandler
Swisher
$27 Dennis
Wood
Granderson $27 Ambrosius
When Dunn went for $39, I thought I was going to let out a Charlie
Brown-esque "Argh!" because yet another top cornerman was rostered for
a very
reasonable price. And when Montero went for $19, I went
scrambling for more names of catchers whom I could live with on my
roster because Avila was likely going to be out of my price
range. I'm
not really sure what the catching situation will be in Pittsburgh, but
as I saw it, with Ryan Doumit sharing time with Chris Snyder and still
going for $13, I was sure that the guy that the Tigers want to be their
everyday
catcher was going to go for more. It was at this point where we
saw the first real signs of inflation. Brian Walton needed his
whole middle infield and with two of the top names already gone, he had
to start spending some money. I like Grady Sizemore quite a bit
and in any normal year where he's completely healthy he's worth $30
easy. But coming off microfracture surgery, $30 is closer to the
high end of what I would have paid in a single season league and close
to value as a $35 keeper in 2012. I had gone into the draft
allotting $20 to get Brian Wilson, and as much as I like him and as
good as he was this year, spending $19 on him was grossly overpaying
for saves as it turns out. But more on that later. What I
found most interesting about this draft was that every time it looked
like a guy had bid himself out of the draft with an overbid, he would
come back just a few players with a brilliant undervalue pick-up.
This happened over and over and with every owner. For example,
when Steve Moyer
spent $64 on Albert Pujols, I thought to myself that there was no way
he'd have enough money left over to get a good closer, much less the
two it usually takes to stay in the race without dumping the
category. In a few rounds, I found out how wrong I was.
3rd Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
Oswalt $21
Kreutzer
Erickson
Jaso
$11 Kreutzer
Feldman D.
Lee $16
Wood
Kreutzer A.
Ramirez $23 Kreutzer
McCaffery B. Phillips
$24 Van Hook
Michaels
Ichiro $20
Walton
Dennis
Quentin $21
Michaels
Ambrosius R
Franklin $10 Michaels
Zola
Beckett
$10 Michaels
Moyer
Posada $12
Van Hook
VanHook J.
Sanchez $16 Michaels
Drooker
Loney $14
Walton
Walton F.
Rodriguez $10 Drooker
Shandler C.
Lee
$19 Walton
Wood
B. Roberts $18
Michaels
I had Oswalt last year for $15 and seriously considered keeping him for
$20 but
his numbers were ridiculously good last year... perhaps too good....
career bests in many respects. My philosophy is generally to let
a player go if he can't do any better than what he just did and that's
how I felt about Oswalt. I did expect him to go for more than $21
though. Perhaps his price was an indication that everyone else
felt the same way. With the third toss came my
moment of truth: Derrek Lee. Sure, he's mid-30s and coming off a
down year. But thumb injuries are notoriously tough on power
numbers and he plays defense well enough that he'll get a full-time job
on pretty much whichever team he wants given the number of teams that
are looking for first basemen this winter. As long as he's
healthy, I feel strongly his numbers will rebound next year. When
I got him for $16 (expecting to pay $25) my outside expression was that
of "yes, I'd like thousand island dressing with my salad" but
inside I was doing a Mark Gastineau sack dance. That lasted about
a minute because 1) I had to figure out where I was going to have to
spend the extra money and 2) you can see that the prices of closers was
dropping fast - Ryan Franklin for $10, Francisco Rodriguez for $10 -
making my Brian Wilson pick start to look really bad and meaning
everyone
else would have a lot of extra money as well. It would get worse.
4th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick W
Rodriguez $14 Kreutzer
Erickson
Lilly $14
Ambrosius
Feldman J.
Motte $1 Feldman
Kreutzer B.
Abreu $20 Dennis
McCaffery Adam
Jones $15 Erickson
Michaels C.
Breslow $1 Michaels
Dennis A.
Avila $7 Wood
Ambrosius
Dempster $11
Wiseguys
Zola
Nolasco $15
Wood
Moyer Jo
Santana $13 Wood
VanHook A.
Gonzalez $10 Shandler
Drooker
Furcal $14
Zola
Walton
Niemann
$5 Wiseguys
Shandler
Shields
$10 Shandler
Wood
J. Vazquez $6 Michaels
Remember when I was talking about overbids being followed up by
brilliant gets? I'm not sure Jonathan Sanchez is going to be a
true ace. He certainly has the stuff for it but he's still a work
in progress so one has to really be a believer to spend $16 on him in
this bidding environment. However, one doesn't have to be much of
a believer to spend $6 on Javier Vazquez. That kind of
turn-around happened so many times in this draft, it was actually
thrilling to watch. As soon as someone would appear to have
overbid himself into the end-game wasteland, he would come back with a
fantastic win to get right back into the thick of things. If only
someone had written a book and made a movie about this league, this
year. Oh well. I did get my catcher in this round and for
less than I was expecting, as well as the starter I was targeting,
Ricky Nolasco. I was price enforcing on Johan Santana when the
bidding suddenly stopped as if there was a breaking news bulletin that
he had decided to switch arms for pitching. So that answered the
question I had earlier as to where I was going to spend my extra Derrek
Lee money.
5th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
Zambrano
$8 Feldman
Erickson M.
Young $25 Feldman
Feldman C.
Kimbrell $7 Dennis
Kreutzer
Takahashi $1
Kreutzer
McCaffery C. Beltran
$19 Walton
Michaels B.
Molina $2
Michaels
Dennis M.
Olivo $7 Feldman
Ambrosius A. Bailey
$13 Wiseguys
Zola
T. Hudson $17 Wiseguys
Moyer G.
Floyd $7 Shandler
VanHook
Hanigan $6
Winick
Drooker C.
Pena $9
Wiseguys
Walton R.
Hernandez $2 Dennis
Shandler A.
Hill $15
Erickson
Wood
M. Ramirez $7 Ambrosius
Again: bidding $12 for Yadier Molina in the second round... I don't
know about that. Getting Manny Ramirez for $7? All day,
every day. Greg Ambrosius would also later land Alfonso Soriano
for $5. That's kind of a big deal.
6th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick J.
Bay $15
Walton
Erickson
Pelfrey $3
Ambrosius
Feldman
Nathan
$7 Feldman
Kreutzer JD
Drew $12
Dennis
McCaffery Jo.
Lopez $3 Wiseguys
Michaels
Lackey
$6 Winick
Dennis T.
Hunter $25 Dennis
Ambrosius V. Guerrero
$8 VanHook
Zola
Peavy
$8 Michaels
Moyer C.
Sale
$7 Dennis
VanHook
Uribe $10
VanHook
Drooker Jo.
Valverde $12 Dennis
Walton
Aardsma
$7 Moyer
Shandler
Willingham $14 Winick
Wood
Jenks
$7 Moyer
This was the round where I felt like I had just eaten humble pie made
from crows. Three closers - Joe Nathan, David Aardsma and Bobby
Jenks - all went for $7. I could nearly have had all three for
the price I paid for Brian Wilson. I really hope Wilson strikes
out 120 guys and saves 60 games next year with an ERA under 1.00.
7th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick J.
Zimmermann $7 Kreutzer
Erickson
Kuroda
$9 VanHook
Feldman
Thole
$2 Shandler
Kreutzer E.
Santana $8 Feldman
McCaffery D.
Ortiz $11 Walton
Michaels K.
Slowey $6
Michaels
Dennis D.
Span $20
Kreutzer
Ambrosius Ra.
Davis $6 Feldman
Zola
T. Snider $5
Erickson
Moyer
Sandoval
$11 Walton
VanHook F.
Cordero $5 Walton
Drooker H.
Street $9
Feldman
Walton S.
Baker $5
Erickson
Shandler
Raburn
$10 Dennis
Wood
E. Jackson $4 Wood
I sat next to Ron Shandler at the table and he was in on every catcher
that was brought up for bidding. And each time he would sigh
wistfully as he came up one dollar short. And then Josh Thole
fell into his lap for $2. Patience (or as it is literally
translated from the Bible "long-suffering") is indeed a virtue.
I've always liked Edwin Jackson and based on his performance in Chicago
last year I think he might have finally put everything together to be
the ace he was projected as when he first came up as a 20-year old
Dodger fireballer. Don Cooper is a very good and hugely
under-appreciated pitching coach so I do believe last year's results
were real.
8th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
Coghlan $2
Drooker
Erickson H.
Bailey $6 Ambrosius
Feldman
Infante $7
Feldman
Kreutzer
Lowrie $12 Kreutzer
McCaffery
Crisp $13
Wiseguys
Michaels M.
Ordonez $6 Kreutzer
Dennis
C. Headley $10 Zola
Ambrosius A.
Gordon $7 Erickson
Zola
Lind $14
Feldman
Moyer
M. Tejada $4
Ambrosius
VanHook F.
Rodney $6 Walton
Drooker
Niese $12
Wiseguys
Walton
F. Lewis $3 Walton
Shandler B.
Hawpe $1 Shandler
Wood
M. Joyce $1
Wood
I was hoping I could get Coco Crisp for around $10 if things broke
right, but after the draft when I spoke with the Wiseguys duo of Gene
McCaffery and John Menna, it was clear I never had a chance of
rostering him. They told me they would have been willing to go as
high as $20 on the 5-tool speedster. And if he manages to stay
healthy for a full-season I have no doubt he'll be worth much more than
that. The 8th round was the last one in which everyone was
eligible to bid. The remaining rounds comprised the endgame in
which teams jockeyed for the last remaining name players and filled out
their rosters. Here are the final results:
Completed rosters
What I want to emphasize is that you can't judge a draft by one
pick-up; a successful draft must be judged by what the team needed and
what the team got. I came into this draft needing some power, a
lot of
speed and some decent pitching. I feel pretty good that I got
power, although that hinges on whether Pat Burrell hit enough in San
Francisco over the second half of 2010 to get a full-time job in the
National League and whether Chipper Jones can stay healthy and
effective for at least a half a season. I am pretty confident
with the pitching I bought. Sure, there are some concerns about
Nolasco's knee and Santana's shoulder but preliminary reports are that
their surgeries went well and both guys have the kind of character and
determination to make rehab a priority this winter. But my effort
to acquire speed would have to be termed an epic failure. If
anything, my team got slower; I acquired negative speed if that's even
possible.
Fortunately, there's five months of off-season for trading and a spring
supplemental draft to fill out the 17-man reserve roster. So
hopefully between now and next April I'll have acquired what I need to
compete.
Here's the
follow-up on the final rounds.