Anatomy of a Keeper Draft - Part 2, the End
Game
November 10, 2010
After the first 8 rounds, this is what the rosters looked like.
As you can see, Todd Zola and Jeff Erickson pretty much
control the board with the money they have remaining, but both need 6
more guys. The rest of the league pretty much has $10-20 left to
fill their remaining spots. It should be noted that unlike
single-season leagues, it's not necessarily a bad thing to leave money
on the table coming
away from the draft. Given the in-season salary cap that
restricts the amount of
player movement and acquisitions a team can make, having money left
over could mean more players who might be at keeper salaries the
following year. Of course, having money left over might also mean
one missed out on some better opportunities. Caveat emptor.
One has to balance bidding efficiency, value for this year as well as
potential keeper value down the line... all in a draft that takes less
than two and a half hours to complete for 15 teams. It's fast
paced to say the least. OK, so off we go...
9th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
Y. Escobar $16
Dennis
Erickson J.
Walden
$3 Drooker
Kreutzer
McLouth
$1 Kreutzer
McCaffery J.
Jay
$3 Wiseguys
Michaels Ad.
Laroche $13 Zola
Dennis
B. Morel
$3 Dennis
Ambrosius A.
Soriano $5
Ambrosius
Zola
Polanco
$3 Moyer
Moyer
O. Hudson
$3 Erickson
VanHook
Milledge $2
VanHook
Drooker
Ja. MacDonald $3 Drooker
Walton
Scutaro
$11 Walton
Shandler
Bartlett
$7 Shandler
Wood
Burrell
$1 Wood
And with that round, Greg Ambrosius and Ron Shandler join
Brian Feldman with completed drafts. This was also the first
round where it looked like there was some scrambling to make sure
roster spots were filled, some with more speculative picks. We're
also starting to see many more names being tossed out by the guy who
wants that player most.
10th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
E. Aybar $8 Winick
Erickson C. Richard
$4 Erickson
Kreutzer J.
Gutierrez $3 Kreutzer
McCaffery Jo.
Baker $2
Drooker
Michaels
Kilahue
$3 Michaels
Dennis
Hanrahan
$3 Drooker
Zola D.
Bard
$3 Zola
Moyer F.
Sanchez $1 Moyer
VanHook A.
Torres $5
Michaels
Drooker
B. Arroyo $1 Drooker
Walton
D. McGowan $1
Walton
Wood
C. Jones
$1 Wood
One more team (Brian Walton) completed. I'll admit
it: I brain-cramped here. There were plenty of decent cornermen
available who will likely have a full-season's worth of playing time
and I just went with the first name off the top of my head.
Hopefully I'll be able to snag a few of the others in the supplemental
draft. But the mistake I made at the draft will cost me a draft
pick to correct. That pick could end up being a potential closer
or a surprise source of stolen bases or a top prospect who can either
bring a great deal in trade or become a fixture on my team for the next
decade. The point is that there are always costs. Anyone
who tells you differently is likely a libertarian. Zola and
Erickson still control the board but that is an advantage that is
increasingly losing it's meaning at this draft. With fewer impact
players left, even if they outbid everyone they will have a
considerable amount of money left over.
11th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
D. Braden $2 Winick
Erickson D.
Lowe
$2 Erickson
Kreutzer
M. Aviles $1
Kreutzer
McCaffery
Pierzinsky $4 Wiseguys
Michaels
R. Sweeney $6 Michaels
Dennis
B. Cecil
$6 Erickson
Zola
Madson
$1 Zola
Moyer D.
Espinosa $1 Moyer
VanHook
Kuo
$2 VanHook
Drooker
C. Snyder $1
Drooker
Wood
Stauffer
$4 Wood
One more team in the books (Michaels). I liked Stauffer because
he pitches in Petco and is old enough that a dramatic increase in
innings isn't such an injury red flag. Plus he pitched extremely
well down the stretch and looks like a strong candidate for the Padre
rotation with Jon Garland and Chris Young potentially leaving. I
like the Danny Espinosa pick as well. He has tremendous physical
tools but one of the front office guys for the Nationals that I know
(and it has been my observation as well) says that he has trouble
making consistent contact. He compared him to the Toronto/Atlanta
Alex Gonzales: flashy glove, great power, low average and swings at
most anything. I agree but my fingers are crossed, for the
Nationals' sake, that he learns some plate discipline.
12th Round
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
Tr. Wood $5 Winick
Erickson
Uehara
$1 Erickson
Kreutzer B.
Lyon
$1 Kreutzer
McCaffery K.
Blanks $1 Wiseguys
Dennis
J. Chacin
$4 VanHook
Zola
R. Ludwick
$1 Zola
Moyer
J. Peralta $2 Zola
VanHook
A. Pagan $4
Zola
Drooker
Wigginton $1
Drooker
Wood
B. Webb
$1 Wood
At this point I am down
to my last pick: a pitcher. I have about 5 names tumbling around
in my head, each of them speculative, but I still keep coming back to
the fact that I chose Pat Burrell over Kyle Blanks. I really
wanted Blanks but for some reason I didn't say anything when it was my
toss in the 9th round. Oh well. But this round demonstrates
why leaving money on the table isn't a big deal. It wasn't Todd
Zola's fault that Ryan Ludwick went for $1, or that he was the only one
with roster spots and money left to nab Jhonny Peralta and Angel Pagan
for a combined $6. The only question is whether or not the rest
of his roster will produce enough to make those uber-bargains pay
off. Still, he has $15 extra under the salary cap to make
whatever trades he needs to as the season progresses. And I don't
have any doubt that at least one of those guys will be worth keeping
next year as well.
Anyway, the guy I eventually decided on was Brandon Webb. I have
the third pick overall in next year's supplemental draft and if I
didn't take Webb here and he proves to be fully healthy and back to
where he was in 2008, I would have no chance to get him. Brandon
Webb all the way back to peak form is a no-brainer first overall
pick. So now we wait to see if he regains his old velocity.
It wasn't looking good from his last showcase when he topped out at
around 82 mph. His may be more a case like that of Mark
Prior. Regardless, I thought it was worth the risk. And
with that, Todd Zola, Jeff Erickson, Peter Kreutzer and I were done
with our teams.
13th Round and the residual
final picks
Toss
Player $$$ Bidder
Winick
R. Ibanez $1
Winick
Dennis
K. Gregg
$1 Dennis
Moyer
JJ Hardy $1
Moyer
VanHook
F. Gutierrez $1 VanHook
Drooker
C. Johnson $1 Drooker
Winick B.
Norris $1 Winick
Dennis J.
Jurrjens $1 Dennis
Moyer C.
Maybin $1 Moyer
Winick
Thornton $1
Winick
Moyer B.
Allen $1
Moyer
Moyer W.
LeBlanc $1 Moyer
One of the cornermen I was considering before the draft as a
complement to Derrek Lee was Brandon Allen. Unfortunately, he
wasn't eligible under our league eligibility rules to be placed at
corner in this draft, so I was hoping that somehow he would make it
through to the spring supplmental. No such luck; too many smart
owners in this league to let him pass through. Still, I think
there are some pretty good options left to pick from depending on how
the offseason plays out.
So there you have it. On the face of it, it's hard to say if
anyone really pulled away from the pack with their draft. As with
most years in this league it will come down to who has the best
supplemental draft and that usually is a combination of getting some
lucky hits with regular players as well as a good number of tradable
prospects for crunch time. We won't know for sure the value of
either event until probably this time next year when it is time for
another XFL November draft.