The
2014 Fantasy Prospect List
March 26, 2014
Marvel’s latest release of another
in a progression of Avenger movies inspired a conversation that, among other
things, induced me to explain that Marvel and DC Comics weren’t the only
publishers of comic books (now called graphic novels in some circles). During
the course of that conversation, I did some on the fly research and ran across
a website that I
highly recommend even if you are not a fan of the genre. It lists some of
the lamest superheroes ever put into newsprint. For example, the Red Bee, even
from a concept, has to be one of the weakest ideas for a “superhero” ever
because he didn’t actually posses a super power. That’s not a deal breaker per
se, as there are a number of super-power-less superheroes who possessed some
sort of massive equalizer – super smart, super rich, etc. - that gave them
equal footing with the genetic freaks who populate this universe. But this
fellow’s only weapon (a trained bumble bee in his belt buckle) could be completely
neutralized by a single dose of Benadryl. That… is lame. Others, like the
Cypher, Dogwelder and Matter Eater Lad (yes, really… read the page) showed some
promise conceptually, but had a major character flaw that prevented them from
reaching the big time.
Why am I talking about lame
superheroes? Well, because this is the time of year when baseball enthusiasts
produce the lion’s share of their lists, and most prominent among them are the
prospect lists. And just like with the superheroes, even though their creators
have the best of intentions, there are always some very big misses. Sometimes,
as with the Red Bee, it should be clear that the prospect won’t fly (pardon the
pun). But others, like the Cypher, their lameness is only fully realized in retrospect.
Bearing that in mind, I
must apologize for being so late with my own prospect list. Before putting
ranks to names, I wanted to see as many of these players this spring in order
to weed out those that had a Dogwelder-sized flaw. So
while you had to wait a little longer, I hope you’ll accept that this has the
benefit of having the latest information as I have watched more than 100 games
over the last month to compile it. If you’re doing the math, yes, that means
I’ve watched roughly five games every day for the last month. It’s hard work
but someone has to do it.
My process is similar to
what Baseball America’s used to be a decade ago: my first input is the scouting
info (in this case what I have seen either in person or in game video) and then
I flavor it with what the prospect has produced statistically, both in the
minors and in the post-season showcases like the AFL and the Caribbean Leagues.
I also incorporate the opinions of people I trust who I know have seen some of
these players every day. I grade players more for tools than for stats and give
an edge to players who are closer to the majors. Age is a factor but only if a
player is especially young for the level or if the player is significantly
older than the competition he faced. Basically this is how it works: I value
upside over everything but that is mitigated by how close a player is to the
majors and further subdued by any lingering questions about mechanics,
maturity, etc. that might slow or prevent the player from reaching their full
potential.
So without further guilding the lily, here’s my list of the top 50 fantasy prospects in baseball:
1 Buxton, Byron
Buxton is the consensus #1 for his amazing performance and for all his tools that grade from above average to plus-plus. Power, however, is probably his weakest tool, which for an outfielder can limit how much value he will eventually have. He’s still probably a year away from the majors but the expectation should be more the next Cesar Cedeno rather than the next Barry Bonds or Eric Davis. That’s still plenty great.
2 Bogaerts, Xander
The highest ranking shortstop on the prospect lists in large part because there are no questions about what he will do at the next level in the minors. He’s been there, done that. His brief exposure in September and October proved he’s ready for the show this year. That said, I don’t think he will stick at shortstop long term. He doesn’t have a quick move laterally and his range is only average. But as long as Middlebrooks hits enough to stay at third, Bogaerts will be the Red Sox’ shortstop.
3 Tavares, Oscar
Like Buxton, he’s an impressive collection of talent but power is only above average. Think a smaller version of Vladimir Guerrero but with 25-homer power at his peak rather than 40. I didn’t get to see him this spring because he was injured (again). His health history is beginning to look a little bit like Jason Heyward’s. I don’t want to call him injury-prone because, like Heyward, none of his injuries have been recurrent, but they do seem to find him with some frequency.
4 Walker, Taijuan
5 Bundy, Dylan
I have no idea why Bundy is so far down in so many prospect lists. He’s only coming back from Tommy John surgery. I’d understand the trepidation if it was a shoulder problem he was coming back from, but this procedure is closing in on 100% success rate with no downside. He was top 3 on everyone else’s list last year. Still deserves top 5.
6 Baez, Javier
Of the shortstop prospects who’ve yet to reach the majors, he might be the most intriguing. I placed him here because his power is hard to ignore and despite the less than ideal command of the strike zone there’s still a decent chance he makes enough contact to make that power play. He could become JJ Hardy but with 40-homer power. He loves to swing at the first pitch and if it’s over the plate he’ll likely put the bat on the ball. That can be a good thing if it’s a good pitch to hit; perhaps not so good if it’s a good pitcher’s pitch. An intriguing storyline henceforth will be whether or not the Cubs try to teach him to be a more patient hitter like they did with Starling Castro, or they accept him for the hitter he is.
7 Russell, Addison
Probably the best all-around package of any of the shortstop prospects. He doesn’t have the upper end power of Baez or the speed of Francisco Lindor but he should develop into a 20-homer/20-steal hitter with an on base around .370. He and Lindor are the most likely of this year’s crop to remain at shortstop for the better part of their careers. The A’s gave him a long look this spring and he didn’t look overmatched.
8 Bradley, Archie
Bradley is the first of three straight pitching prospects on this list who routinely touch 100 mph with their fastballs. I have him ranked the highest because he’s closest to the majors but if I’m ranking them in terms of upside I put him third of the three. As impressive as he’s been, walks are still a significant issue and that won’t play very well in the majors. Just ask Trevor Bauer. On the plus side, when he does miss the strike zone, he tends to miss low or to the arm side so it’s less likely that his mistakes will get tomahawked into the seats.
9 Giolito, Lucas
By
this time next year he’ll challenge Buxton as the best prospect in baseball. He
has the best control of the #8-10 on this list and two of his pitches (his
fastball and 12-6 curve) grade as 80s on the scouting scale and a third (his
change) that has potential to be a 60+. If competitiveness, composure on the
mound and work ethic were graded by scouts, by all accounts he’d rate at least
a 60+ on those, too. He was regarded by some scouts as the best high-school
right-hander in draft history and before his elbow required surgery was rumored
to become the first high school right-hander ever chosen #1 overall. As
baseball man extraordinaire John Hart might say, “This is what they look like.”
10 Gray, Jonathan
Gray
is a hulking presence and his repertoire fits his size. His fastball has hit as
high as 102 mph and his slider has fantastic break, a la K Rod’s. His motion is
almost non-chalant and he pours pitches into the
strike zone without fear, as if he were facing little leaguers. I’m tempted to
rank him higher but his final destination will be Coors Field, which has a
tendency to diminish even great pitching talents. Also of concern, Tulowitzki aside, the
11 Correa, Carlos
I
know he’s a favorite of the Clubhouse Confidential crowd but he’s still pretty
far away from the majors, he doesn’t run particularly well and much of his statistical
performance last year was driven by a Balls in Play
Average near .400. Let’s see him do it at a higher level before we anoint him
as the next ARod. And before this hype gets any
crazier, at Correa’s current age Alex Rodriguez was already in AAA and posting
an OPS nearly 80 points higher than Correa did in low A
last year. So let’s end that comparison permanently right now.
I know it’s blasphemy to undervalue the Astros’ prospects because the Astros are so smart for depending on advanced metrics to divine their prospect choices, but if I recall correctly the same people who are currently crowing about how great Houston will be in two or three years are the same ones who said ten years ago that the Oakland A’s would dominate baseball for the foreseeable future, and five years ago that the Seattle Mariners would be winning World Series routinely by now, and for the very same reasons. How’s that working out? Hey, guess what… baseball is hard. Don’t get me wrong – I admire what the Astros are trying because they are fielding a historically terrible team and they are courageous enough to try something new. My umbrage is with those who think that it’s 100% certain to succeed and that what everyone else is doing – and has been doing for more than a century - is quaint.
12 Sano, Miguel
When it comes to raw power, Sano and Joey Gallo are about the only ones on this year’s list who I’d grade as having 80 or near 80 power. Sano predicted a 45-homer season this year but that will be put on hold for a while after he suffered an elbow injury that required ligament surgery. It’s not far-fetched to suggest that he’ll be in the top 5 on next year’s prospect lists.
13 Polanco, Gregory
Polanco had not posted overly impressive stats in his career until the Caribbean Series this winter, where he posted a .922 OPS (10 doubles and 5 homers) and stole 7 bases in just 166 at bats. His power numbers should improve when he fills out a large frame (6’4”, 220 lbs) as he matures. The Pirates outfield in a year or two will be the most athletic in baseball, with Andrew McCutcheon, Starling Marte and this guy.
14 Bryant, Kris
Bryant is another hitter with top of the scale power - just a tick below Sano and Gallo. He is still capable of a 40-homer season once he gets acclimated to the majors and will probably end up becoming a better overall hitter than the other two. I had some questions about how much contact he would make against upper echelon pitching but he answered them resolutely with his performance in the Arizona Fall League. He won’t win any batting titles but I assume he’ll be manning third base on the North Side of Chicago sometime during the 2015 season if not before.
15 Meyer, Alex
I
have Meyer higher on my list than anyone, but the combination of a 6’ 9”
pitcher throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s on a downhill plane is just too much
to pass on. Yes, there are concerns about consistency with his mechanics due to
his height, but I saw enough in
16 Tanaka, Masahiro
There’s
no question he posted some very impressive numbers last year in Japan, but I
think people get caught up in the 24-0 won/loss record and tend to glaze over
the other numbers. They were good, but not as good as some of the things he had
done previously. In fact, his strikeout rate is on a three-year decline. I
don’t think I’m being controversial by suggesting he does not have the same
upside as Yu Darvish. I imagine he’ll be successful
in
Stuff-wise, he’s got a fairly straight 94-mph fastball with a great split-finger variation, which he compliments with 3-5 average breaking pitches. On the mound his biggest obstacles will likely be the different ball used by the majors and pitching on shorter rest than he’s used to. The latter won’t be a factor early on but by later in the season it could be significant.
17 Castellanos, Nick
So this is the guy who is supposed to replace Miguel Cabrera at third. Well, not exactly because Cabrera is just moving to his more natural position at first base. But there are some similarities. Like Cabrera, Castellanos has a knack for making solid contact with the pitches he swings at and he feels comfortable going with the pitch and using all fields. He doesn’t possess nearly the power Cabrera does (and never will) but should develop into a solid major league hitter with above average power.
18 Syndergaard, Noah
The third of the Mets next trio of young guns, Syndergaard, at least stuff-wise, has the lowest ceiling between he, Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. But command-wise, he has the edge and he features four pitches that grade average or above. What I saw this spring suggested he is close but not quite ready for primetime.
19 Gausman, Kevin
Right off the bat I’ll concede that I am favorably biased toward Gausman because he went to LSU. The facts of the matter, however, are that he has a very good fastball, a plus change-up and a good feel for pitching. His troubles have been tied to the lack of a consistent breaking pitch and getting too much of the plate with his offerings. His slider shows promise but he’ll need to command it to realize his full potential as a top of the rotation workhorse.
20 Sanchez, Aaron
There’s a lot of elbow movement in Sanchez’ delivery
but it’s quick and compact and he delivers a mid-90s fastball with little
effort. He’s young for the level of competition he’s been facing but control
issues will determine how quickly he continues his ascent. Minor injuries have
prevented him from getting a lot of innings under his belt so maybe the control
will come quickly with a full season of repetitions. If there’s any plus to his
current wildness is that he tends to miss low so he
doesn’t give up many homers on mistakes.
21 Taillon, James
Like many of this year’s top pitching prospects, Taillon is armed with a mid-90s fastball. He also throws a
big breaking curve but there is a slight difference in arm speed when he throws
it. That will play in the minors but major league hitters will pick up on such
visual cues very quickly. Still, he has good control and the kind of frame
scouts like in hard-throwing starters.
22 Glasnow, Tyler
I’ll have to admit that it is hard for me to get past his ridiculous strikeout rate: 13.26 Ks/9 last year in A-ball. For a 19-year old, that’s quite noteworthy. His walk rate was also high (4.93 per 9) but I’m not as alarmed by this as many evaluators. It’s something to keep an eye on but nothing to dismiss him as a top prospect. Tall guys (6’7”) who throw hard (consistently in the mid-high 90s) often have trouble finding the zone early in their careers. If he’s still walking five guys an outing when he’s in Triple-A then there’s reason to be concerned. His curve has all the makings of a plus pitch and if he can find consistency with his change, the Pirates will have their own trio of young starters that compare with any in baseball.
23 Crick, Kyle
Although he’s drawn comparisons to Matt Cain and
Kurt Ainsworth, I think a more appropriate comparison is to another
hard-throwing righty who also had crazy movement on his fastball: Darren Dreifort. Crick is an incredibly compelling arm not only
because of the movement and velocity of his fastball, but because he can
maintain his plus velocity deep into games. Like Glasnow,
his breaking pitches and control need refinement but if he finds a way to put
them all in the strike zone he could produce Nintendo-like strikeout numbers.
24 Lindor, Fransisco
Lots of prospect lists have Lindor higher in their rankings largely due to his on base and defense. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt by putting him here because he has decent speed albeit not blazing. But I have serious reservations about his almost complete lack of power. His lifetime slugging percentage in the minors is .377. It’s hard to stay in the majors with that kind of liability at the plate. Many of the notables who have done it – Omar Vizquel, Ozzie Smith, Tony Fernandez, Dave Concepcion, Bert Campaneris – like Lindor featured spectacular glovework. He’ll need to keep the speed if he’s going to be a net positive on a fantasy roster.
25
Let me start with the obvious: “Ace”
26 Appel, Mark
Another Astros guy. Two years ago he was being hailed as the next Verlander, with a fastball that touched 100. Last year, he was becoming more of a pitcher than a thrower with a fastball that touched 96. I imagine those numbers were tinged with a bit of scout enthusiasm and by the time Appel reaches the majors he’ll be a solid #2 with a fastball that is consistently 92-93 that touches 94. He’ll have to show improved velocity to regain that #1 upside.
27 Zimmer, Kyle
Zimmer is usually listed higher on most prospect
lists and for good reason: he’s got three above average pitches that he
commands well and he has good pitching instincts, knowing when to add or
subtract to throw off the hitter’s timing. The only reason I have him this low
is that he’s already gone through a bout of tight shoulder and had bone chips
removed within the last year and a half. The talent is there for an ace but I
have some doubts about his durability. The name that sprang to my mind as a
comp was Bret Saberhagen, who was brilliant when he
was healthy but over a 17-year major league career only had four such seasons.
28
The ‘Robin’ to Jonathan Gray’s ‘Batman’, this half
of the dynamic duo has plenty of weapons in his utility belt: three plus
pitches and a fourth that grades above average.
29 Heaney, Andrew
With his easy delivery, Heaney looks like he’s
playing catch when he’s on the mound. It’s surprising to both hitters and
observers that he’s hitting 93-96 mph when the fastball crosses the plate. Generally
he has better control when he pitches in the low 90s but he’s been known to run
it up as high as 97. He doesn’t have any real weaknesses – solid change with a
plus slider - so he could very well be delivering the goods in the majors this
season, perhaps even as soon as the season opener depending on how he looks
this spring. He doesn’t have as much upside as some of the higher names on this
list but his floor is relatively high.
30 d'Arnaud, Travis
The next in what has become a fairly long line of
“great-hitting” catchers who are frequently compared to Mike Piazza and Joe Mauer. Let’s start with the obvious: he’s not one of those
guys. That said, he could easily become the next
Buster Posey or Matt Wieters. That’s still very good.
Just not Hall of Fame good. For fantasy purposes his
defense is ahead of his offense so the next couple of years will probably be
underwhelming. But when he finally gets it, he’ll be an All-Star in both real
and fantasy baseball.
31 Hamilton, Billy
He has Hall of Fame speed and base-running instincts
but will he hit enough to show it? He didn’t last year in Triple-A; he has this
spring. Perhaps the most important recent development has been his ability to
draw walks. He won’t have to hit better than .260 to be an effective lead-off
man if he can draw walks in 7-8% of his plate appearances. That might seem low
from an on base percentage perspective but he is so good at stealing bases that
he’ll score more runs with an on base of .320 than most players would if they
had an on base of .370. How good is he? The truly great basestealers
like Rickey Henderson have everything measured perfectly from their jump to
their slide.
32 Franco, Maikel
Franco posted some impressive stats last year but
I’m not confident he’ll produce those at the next level without some
significant adjustments. He has a bit of a loop in his swing which major league
pitchers will eventually exploit. They’ll bust him inside with fastballs until he smoothes out that bit of flair. That said, his physical tools – bat speed, raw power, ability to
barrel the ball – make him a very intriguing talent. His defense is better than
advertised so he could make his debut very quickly if Cody Asche
doesn’t get out to a hot start.
33 Urias, Julio
In the Little League World Series, foreign teams
have often been accused of using players who are older than the 13-year old age
limit. That trend stopped when Danny Almonte, a kid
from
34 Pederson, Joc
Pederson has good all-around tools and has
surprising power for someone with his build. Comparisons to Curtis Granderson are probably optimistic but I can see his peak
similar to what Granderson did when he was in
35 Abreu, Jose
I’m not sure what to make out of Abreu since I’ve only seen him for a few at bats during the World Baseball Classic. His swing looked a lot like that of Yoenis Cespedes and his bat speed wasn’t very impressive. I imagine his plate discipline will be similar as well, which adds up to an everyday player for a few years but not the perennial All-Star he’s being made out to be. It’s a great show when he makes solid contact because the ball travels a long way so it’ll be interesting to see how well he handles pitches that challenge his bat speed.
36 Springer, George
The next Chris Heisey? Yes, his tools are exciting but he strikes out once
every three at bats now. How many .300 hitters in history have struck out 200
times in a season? The answer might surprise you unless you thought the answer
was zero. Bobby Bonds came close once but he was two years younger than
Springer when he made his major league debut and finished his career as a .268
hitter. Expecting Springer to achieve that level or surpass it is overly
optimistic. Also optimistic is any expectation that his BABIP will remain in
the neighborhood of .380. So what happens when his
strikeout rate goes up, his walk rate goes down – which they most certainly
will against major league pitching – and his BABIP drops fifty points? Well…
Chris Heisey. That’s still not bad; it’s still a
borderline major league regular. But visions of perennial 40/40/.300 seasons
are just wishful thinking. His advocates will point to the walks he’s drawn
this spring as a sign he’s improving quickly, but four of his eight walks came in
a single game at the beginning of March and we have no way of knowing if the
other walks he drew were due to his knowledge of the strike zone or from the
usual rust the pitchers were shaking off during spring training. What he hasn’t
addressed is his tendency to hit under the ball and the somewhat large holes in
his swing. Still not sold on the superstar hype.
37 Mondesi, Raul
Son of former toolsy
Dodger outfielder Raul Mondesi, the younger plays a
similar game as the elder, displaying both power and speed albeit less power
and more speed. Likewise on defense, he lacks his father’s cannon arm but has
the edge in range and instincts. He’s been one of the youngest players at each
level and projects to be pushing for a major league job by 2016.
38 Seager, Corey
Brother of Mariner’s third baseman Kyle Seager, Corey is a shortstop now but a move to third is
probably in the offing due to his size and range. He has a little better feel
and approach at the plate so he’ll likely hit for better average but the power
will be similar.
39 Stephenson, Robert
There’s no question that Stephenson features plus
velocity on his fastball. But I question how well it will play at the major
league level. From what I’ve seen, everything he throws is up in the zone.
That’s a two edged-sword. On the plus side, a fastball chest-high will more
often than not yield a swinging strike if the batter offers. On the minus side,
pitches up in the zone are the easiest to see and if a fastball is only
belt-high and not chest-high, it tends to travel a long distance in the
opposite direction. Major league hitters learn pitchers very quickly so
Stephenson will need to get comfortable pitching down in the zone more so that
they can’t look for belt-high offerings.
40 Odor, Roughned
Many evaluators rank Odor as the best
prospect in the Rangers system but I think much of that is because he is the
most likely to become a major league regular. Other prospects in the
41 Owens, Henry
Owens is a tall lefty who has posted crazy strikeout
numbers so far, but his stuff really doesn’t project to be so dominant in the
majors. Despite his 6’7” height, he’s much more Tom Glavine than Randy Johnson.
He hides the ball well and supplements that with an excellent change-up but
still struggles with command. The result is career rates of 11.35 Ks per 9
innings, accompanied by a walk rate of 4.37 per 9. Command will key how quickly
he becomes a regular in a major league rotation but his ceiling is probably
limited to something along the lines of Chris Capuano.
42 Stewart, Kohl
The fourth of the Twins upper level prospects,
Stewart has all the tools to become a front of the rotation starter. While his
fastball lacks the velocity of most of the pitchers on this list, he features
four pitches that already grade as average or better and the only thing they
lack is consistency to all become above average offerings. Health is his
biggest obstacle: he has type 1 diabetes and more immediately, was shut down at
the end of the 2013 season with shoulder soreness. He’s still only 19 so there
is no urgency to rush him.
43 Edwards, CJ
In a Cub’s system that is rife with excellent hitting
prospects , Edwards is pretty much the
only ray of light on the pitching side. Edwards stuff is not eye-popping but both his fastball, curve and slider all grade above average.
He has a change-up in his repertoire as well but has used it only sparingly.
What makes him intriguing is his make-up and instincts. He has a knack for
making good pitches when he needs to. The proof is that he has allowed only one
home run over two full seasons of professional ball covering 183 innings and
his career minor league ERA is 1.72.
44 Cole, AJ
I used to think that he had an upside similar to Jarrod Parker. After watching him this spring I probably should revise that downward a little. He doesn’t pitch in the upper-to-mid-90s anymore, instead changing speeds on his fastball from 88-94. His breaking ball has looked good this spring and his change-up is occasionally very good. His upside is probably closer to a solid #2 starter. I don’t see any of the National’s current 5th starter options providing much of an obstacle once he’s ready.
45
With all the hype about the Pirates farm system
focused on superb young talents like Gerrit Cole,
Jameson Taillon, Gregory Polanco
and Tyler Glasnow, Meadows often gets lost in the
shuffle because his tools aren’t quite as loud. However, they are still plenty
good, with good plate discipline, an easy swing with emerging power and
surprising speed. As an 18-year old in Rookie ball and low-A he compiled a
.316/.424/.554 slashline. It’s very easy to project
him either among the top 10 next year or closely approaching it.
46 Frazier, Clint
When
Frazier was a shortstop, he rivaled Javier Baez for most power for the
position. However, with Francisco Lindor in their
system, the Indians decided he could progress faster with a move to center
field. He’s still fairly aggressive at the plate and is susceptible to swing
and miss at breaking pitches already, despite their lack of quality in the low
minors. How fast he makes the necessary adjustments will determine how quickly
he climbs the ladder.
47 Ervin, Philip
Injuries have been Ervin’s biggest issue since high
school but when healthy his tools grade 60s across the board. There are no real
weaknesses in his game on offense or defense, or from a tools perspective or a sabermetric one. To wit, he has yet to produce lower than a
.916 OPS or an on base lower than .406 at any level, but likewise hasn’t topped
260 at bats in any season either. He possesses enough speed and instincts to
play any outfield position and his arm would rate as one of the better ones if
he ends up in right field.
48 Bauer, Trevor
Although
this ranking might not indicate it, I still believe in Bauer although not quite
as much as before. Back problems can be partially blamed for his disastrous
2013, but his biggest obstacle to becoming a top-of-the-rotation starter is
still a lack of maturity. I’m not talking about him throwing tantrums if he
doesn’t get a call (although there are still some instances of him huffing
around the mound when that happens). No, I’m more concerned with him
over-thinking each situation. Sometimes it is what it is and he just needs to
let it go and make a good pitch rather than a perfect one. He still defaults to
strikeout mode like he did at UCLA whenever he gets in trouble, pitching up in
the zone instead of making good pitches down in the zone that might net him
either a strikeout or a double play grounder. There is nothing wrong with his
stuff: he was hitting 98 mph this spring with his fastball and his breaking
stuff is very good. And he seems to be immune to fatigue so there’s potential
here to be a 220+ inning workhorse. His success and upside in the majors are
entirely dependent on him gaining control of the mental aspects of the game.
He’s certainly smart enough to make that adjustment and realize his enormous
potential but until he does he’ll be unrosterable for
fantasy purposes.
49 Almora, Albert
Almora has a nice easy swing and
a good sense of the strikezone. He doesn’t panic when
he gets down in the count and can get around on good inside pitches. He would
be higher on this list if any of his tools graded higher than above average.
His upside is a solid major league regular and he’ll become a much better real
baseball player than a fantasy one.
50 Gallo, Joey
It might seem odd to find Joey Gallo as the 50th
best prospect in baseball, at least in terms of actually becoming a major
leaguer. I would rate his chances of making the majors as fairly low given
current inability to make consistent contact… so far. Currently he struggles to
identify pitches on the outer half and his swing doesn’t spend much time in the
strike zone. However, he’s young enough to tinker with his mechanics and to
learn how to lay off pitches he can’t handle. If he gets this, watch out; his
power is off the scale. In his first professional season, his walk rate
improved in August and September and his strikeout rate decreased without any
drop in home run rate. Oh, and he hit
.321 with an on base of .415 over that span. He finished the season with 40
homers (in only 411 at bats) despite missing much of July with a groin injury.
Defensively he has the arm to stick at third but his slow feet point to his
ultimate position becoming either first base or, more likely, DH.
That’s all I have. If you didn’t see a player you
liked, it’s not because I don’t like him. Well, not necessarily anyway. It’s
just that he didn’t make my top 50. But he was definitely in my top 100. Good
luck in 2014 and beyond!