The AL Finish (08/22/00)
I ran through the NL races the other day. It's only fair I do the AL as well. I used the same Runs Created formula that I used for the NL. Here are the results:
R=runs, OR=Opponent runs, RC=runs created, ORC=opponent runs created, PW= projected wins, PL= projected losses
AL East
Team Gms RC R ORC OR W L PW PL +/-
Yankees 120 675 674 579 578 67 53 69 51 -2
Red Sox 120 614 599 545 541 64 56 67 53 -3
Blue Jays 125 710 693 717 724 64 61 62 63 +2
Orioles 123 639 623 708 739 54 69 55 68 -1
Devil Rays 122 593 593 664 659 53 69 54 68 -1
The Yanks moves in July certainly helped their cause. Overachieving early in the season, this team has not only caught up to their wins but are now playing better than their record indicates. That's bad news for the rest of the Al East. Boston is also underachieving in the wins column and still has a shot at catching the Yanks. If they can get some consistent starts from someone other than Pedro Martinez, they might be able to pull even on their 4 game home stand against the Bombers September 8-11. The Jays stellar young pitching hasn't materialized as expected. In fact, if not for the terrific year by journeyman Frank Castillo, the Jays probably wouldn't be in contention for the wild card. It took the Padre's pitchers a little while to get used to Dave Stewart's direct, matter-of-fact style when he took over as the San Diego pitching coach in 1998. However, it's clear he got positive results: many of the Padre pitchers had their best year under Stewart. Whether he can foment a similar renaissance without the benefit of a spring training acclamation period should be interesting to see. Regardless, if he remains the Blue Jays pitching coach next year, they will get better. The O's are still floundering and will probably end the season in last place. Everyone moans that GM Chuck Lamarr doesn't know what he's doing, but the D-Rays have some very good young players on the way (Josh Hamilton, newly acquired Brent Abernathy, newly promoted Aubrey Huff) and they aren't too far from making South Florida baseball competitive.
AL Central
Team Gms RC R ORC OR W L PW PL +/-
White Sox 124 741 768 645 645 74 50 71 53 +3
Indians 120 703 674 633 620 64 56 66 54 -2
Tigers 122 639 609 639 627 60 62 61 61 -1
Royals 123 635 667 729 723 58 65 53 70 +5
Twins 126 607 590 707 678 56 70 53 73 +3
The White Sox have surprised a lot of people with how good they are. Everyone knew they had some hitters but their pitching has been much better than anticipated. However, the staff is young and probably not as good as their record indicates due to the tremendous run support they received early on. The White Sox have overachieved by 3 games may find themselves in a race for the division because the perennial pick in the Central is getting healthy and playing good baseball. Cleveland, even with all it's injuries, has underachieved by a couple of games. When healthy they are a very tough club with a lot of playoff experience. If they can close to within 5 or 6 games by the beginning of September, the race for the division crown will definitely be on. The Tigers have made an incredible run since May. Is it for real? Apparently, yes. Will they get to the playoffs anytime soon? No. Everyone was talking about what a genius Tony Muser was at the beginning of the season. Not too many are on that bandwagon now, although it does appear that the Royals are overachieving. Maybe the talent simply wasn't as good as advertised. The Twins have defied the spring training omen and have remained the Twins for yet another year. However, with Radke, Milton, Mays and Redman, they have the makings of a very nice pitching staff. Now if they could only get some hitters.
AL West
Team Gms RC R ORC OR W L PW PL +/-
Mariners 124 688 711 616 617 69 55 69 55 0
Athletics 122 686 698 669 661 66 56 63 59 +3
Angels 124 699 654 681 651 64 60 64 60 0
Rangers 122 666 655 709 694 56 66 57 65 -1
It's looking very much like the Mariner's year in the West. Although with the way they've been pitching over the past 2 weeks, one has to wonder whether Lou Pinella has burned out yet another pitching staff. If not, this is a team that can go deep in the playoffs. The A's offense hasn't been as good as everyone thought they'd be. Still, they're on pace to score over 900 runs which is still impressive, even in these run-crazy times. Questions about their defense have been answered with the promotion of Terrence Long in center and the emergence of Miguel Tejada as one the best shortstops in the majors. Speaking of Tejada, no discussion of the best shortstops in the AL is complete by just mentioning the "Holy Trio" - Rodriguez, Garciaparra and Jeter. Tejada, on pace for nearly 30 homers and over 100 RBI along with terrific defense, has to be mentioned. The Angels have really taken to Mike Scioscia's steady influence and could contend next year if their young pitching continues to improve. The Rangers will probably drag the bottom again next year without any quality arms to accompany Helling and Rogers in the rotation. However, they will have a very good offense with rapidly improving Gabe Kapler and Frank Catalanotto to bat behind Palmeiro, Rodriguez, Mateo and Greer.