Minnesota TwinsThe Twins were one of two teams (the other being Montreal) that finished 5 games below .500 in one run games last year and posted a spring training winning percentage this year that was .100+ better than last year's winning percentage. Why is this significant? Because every team that's done so since 1980, and there have been more than 30 of them, has won at least 13 more games that following year.
The Twins are one of the youngest teams in the majors. Of their regular players, only Ron Coomer and Matt Lawton are older than 26 and Lawton is just 28. The Twins don't have anyone who's a threat to hit 40 homers and might not have anyone hit 30. But just about every guy in the line-up is capable of popping 15-20 and all but Coomer do a fairly decent job of getting on base. While they might not be a big offensive threat this year, as they mature they could get very good. Outfielders Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones and Matt Lawton are all similar players and remind me of a couple of other Twins outfielders from the 80's: Shane Mack and Kirby Puckett. They each have some power, a little speed and a decent eye at the plate, although Jones' still needs work. The Twins infield has 3 very good young hitters in Corey Koskie, Todd Walker and David Ortiz. Koskie and Ortiz have good power and excellent plate discipline, Walker is a potential batting champion. Switch-hitting shortstop Cristian Guzman is the youngest guy on the infield and it shows. He still swings at a lot of bad pitches and frankly, might not ever hit for a decent average or power. However, if he can learn to draw more walks, his speed will make him a valuable offensive asset. Javier Valentin is probably better suited for back-up catcher, but he might develop into an average hitter. Matt LeCroy is a potentially very good hitter behind the plate, with good power and plate discipline, but questions still remain as to whether he can handle everyday defensive duties. Coomer was the Twins lone representative last year, which was a nice story for a guy who had kicked around in the minors for so long. He's a good contact hitter with occasional pop but that's about the extent of his game. GRADE: 50
Defensively, the Twins are gaining ground on the rest of the AL Central. Guzman is the anchor of the infield. As one scout put it, "he could play defense on a rock pile". I'm not sure what that means, but I think he's saying that Guzman has very good hands and instincts. Walker is a little stiff at second and doesn't have much range, but he's not terrible. Koskie is about average at third and Ortiz is a little rough around the edges at first. The outfield does a good job of running most everything down. Torri Hunter, who showed well above average range in center last year, has been moved to left to accommodate Jones. Lawton is about average in right. Valentin is a very good receiver, showing good mobility and blocking skills, and throws very well. GRADE: 55
The Twins rotation is quietly sneaking up on the rest of the AL. Brad Radke won 20 games a couple of years ago and had he had decent run support, might have won a lot more since. His best pitch is the change-up, which is very good. He has a good idea of how to set hitters up and mix the speeds on his pitches, keeping hitters timing off. There have been a lot of rumors about him being traded this season, but if the Twins can manage to stay around .500 for a good part of the year, it would not be at all surprising if they signed him long term. Lefty Eric Milton came over in the deal that sent Chuck Knoblauch to the Yanks. At the time, everyone was gnashing their teeth that the big guys had once again put it to the little guy, taking their best player for nothing. Not too many people are saying that these days. In fact some are whispering that the little guy took the big guy to the cleaners. Milton is the best pitcher no one's ever heard of. He has 4 solid pitches and is quickly learning how to keep hitters off balance. Proof: he no-hit the Angels last September while striking out 13. Joe Mays is another youngster who shows a lot of promise. His fastball has a heavy sink to it, but his best pitch is a bowel-locking hard slider. If he can master a change up, something he can definitely learn from Radke, he will be a big winner. Sean Bergman has made the rounds for a number of teams but has never really clicked. People are always amazed that a pitcher with his stuff - good fastball, nasty slider, decent curve - can't stick with any club, much less win. Manager Tom Kelly has good luck with pitchers so maybe he can straighten Bergman out. GRADE: 60-
The bullpen lost two closers last year: Rick Aguilera was traded to the Cubs in mid-season and Mike Trombley was lost to the Orioles via free agency this winter. Kelly will probably use a committee to close out games, giving opportunities to journeyman Bob Wells, hard throwing but wild Hector Carrasco, lefty Eddie Guardado and perhaps rookie Mark Redman. Kelly has a pretty good feel for the hot hand so the Twins should have a passable relief corps. LaTroy Hawkins will act as the swingman, occasionally starting when there's a need and long relieving the rest of the time. GRADE: 55
GM Terry Ryan, like many small market GMs doesn't get a lot of credit for the work he does with limited resources. Mainly because his teams don't win. However, he has built a decent club from the farm system and has made some pretty astute trades to shore up as many weaknesses in the farm that he can. He's also done a pretty good job scouting for the draft. Michael Cuddyer, a Scott Rolen-type third baseman, and Michael Restovich, another Shane Mack/Kirby Puckett clone in the outfield, are probably only a year away from contributing. If Ryan does trade Radke, it's fairly certain he'll get very good value. Tom Kelly is a great teacher. He's a good game tactician and a decent handler of pitches, but his greatest strength is teaching youngsters how to play. He was successful doing that in the late 80's early 90's with Puckett, Mack, Gary Gaetti and Kent Hrbek. These Twins teams won two World Championships. Now, a decade later, he's not too far away from doing it again. GRADE: 65