Once More Into the Breach...
November 15, 2011
After last year's complete flop in the XFL, I was a little reluctant to
follow the same path by publicly analyzing the November draft.
However, the exercise seemed useful as it provided some insight into
how these scenarios play out. Almost everyone thinks they can do
a better job of drafting than the people actually participating in the
draft, but just about everything looks easy in hindsight. This is
one of the reasons not everyone can be a closer. Sure, it's easy
on paper but once you're in the game and the outcome is solely on your
shoulders it's a different story. That said, let the kibbutzing
begin.
Coming into this draft I don't think anyone would argue I had a pretty
solid list of keepers.
Buster Posey - $7
Joe Mauer - $22
Brandon Belt - $4
Gordon Beckham - $10
Zack Cozart - $4
Justin Upton - $16
Jay Bruce - $13
Mike Stanton - $7
Stephen Strasburg - $7
Drew Pomeranz - $4
Minor Leaguers:
Yu Darvish
Trevor Bauer
Derek Norris
Anthony Rendon
Jonathan Singleton
XM Radio broadcast the draft live and beforehand the host of the
broadcast asked me why I had not held onto Colby Lewis at $11.
I'm not sure if he was baiting me, or just trying to lay some
groundwork as to how the league works or whether he was just high on
Lewis, but I told him that mid-range pitchers like Lewis are typically
acquired between the $8-15 range and that if I was indeed interested in
re-aquiring Lewis I could probably get him at that price. As it
turns out, I could have had him for much less. I hope to
provide a link to the interviews and to a rebroadcast of the draft
sometime in the near future.
Anyway, with those keepers, I decided what I needed most from this
draft was some stable production, namely in the form of established
players. I already had the upside plays with all the young
talent.
All I needed to do is grab some established veterans who would provide
guaranteed production. So I focused on grabbing one of the top
available aces (Halladay, Sabathia, Greinke) plus one of the top
available first basemen (Pujols, Teixeira or Konerko) and one of the
top available third basemen (Zimmerman or ARod) and I would fill in the
rest with whatever was available, hopefully with cheap speed in the
outfield as a bonus.
A wise man once said that everyone has a plan until they get punched in
the face, so I also made sure I had a back-up plan or two just in case
that didn't work out. My fall back play was to grab one of the
second tier firstbasemen who have some upside but big questions
(Napoli, Goldschmidt, Dunn or Morneau), a couple power hitters from the
outfield and fill in with speed where I could find it.
Regardless, I had to come away with an ace pitcher and I had set aside
as much as $40 to do it. I was willing to spend as much as $40 on
a first baseman and as much as $30 on Zimmerman, $25 on ARod. In
retrospect, I should have raised those limits but unlike last year I
don't think it was a critical mistake.
So here's how the first round played out:
Toss |
Player |
Salary |
Roster |
Drooker |
CC Sabathia |
$27 |
Moyer |
Shandler |
Albert Pujols |
$66 |
Michaels |
Wood |
Chase Utley |
$26 |
Dennis |
Ambrosius |
Mariano Rivera |
$17 |
Moyer |
Feldman |
Mike Napoli |
$29 |
Erickson |
Moyer |
Ryan Lavarnway |
$8 |
Wood |
Kreutzer |
Adam Jones |
$21 |
Van Hook |
Winick |
Roy Halladay |
$42 |
Michaels |
Zola |
Jose Reyes |
$38 |
Erickson |
McCaffrey |
Alex Rodriguez |
$29 |
Van Hook |
Dennis |
Adam Dunn |
$12 |
Moyer |
Michaels |
Asdrubal Cabrera |
2$4 |
Van Hook |
Erickson |
Brian McCann |
$25 |
Dennis |
Walton |
Zack Greinke |
$21 |
Wood |
Van Hook |
Jose Valverde |
$15 |
Moyer |
This year's champion, Don Drooker, opened the bidding on CC Sabathia
who went for a very reasonable $27. Want to know something
weird? Sabathia was the first player thrown out last year... and
he went for $27 then, too. Maybe he should change his uniform
number. My primary target was
Halladay so I let that one go even though it was well below my
threshhold.
Good news,
I thought to myself...
aces are
going
cheap this year. This meant I would have more money to
spend on
first basemen. Lesson One: never count your players before
they're rostered. I had figured that Pujols would go above $60 so
I wasn't counting on him, and sure enough he broke the bid
record. But Teixeira looked very gettable at this point.
Get Teixeira and Halladay and call it a day. Yeah, well...
Lawr Michaels, who had entered the draft with the most money to spend,
rostered Pujols, and as it turned out, Halladay as well... for $42, a
point that would prove very interesting once the draft concluded.
Despite having the most money to spend and rostering the most expensive
hitter and the most expensive pitcher, Lawr left the draft with $48 on
the table. I do not know his reasons but that fact had a profound
impact on the pricing in later rounds. But I digress... I
considered Napoli because he was eligible at first base and catcher and
could
provide a great safety net at a position noted for frequent injuries, a
reality that was made abundantly clear to me last year. However,
paying $29 for last year's career year didn't seem like a good use of
funds regardless of how flexible he is. And Teixiera was still
available and I only had one spot for a first baseman.
Subsequently, I got caught up in a bidding war with Jeff Winick over
Ryan Lavarnway and ended up paying $8 for my catcher insurance
policy. That said...
Lavarnway was appealing for several reasons, the first of which is the
guy can really hit. He has a career .284/.376/.521 slash line in
the minors with a good yet aggressive eye at the plate. Last year
he popped 34 homers across three levels. By comparison, last
year's catching sensation Alex Avila had a .280/.372/.424 career slash
line in the minors along the same age parameters. Finding
catchers with 25 homer power is
pretty hard, and hitting in a line-up as loaded as the Red Sox means
he won't have a great deal of pressure to produce right out of
gate. The fact that he was one of Boston's few productive hitters
in the final week last year will also buy him some leeway with Red
Sox Nation if he gets off to a slow start. Also working in his
favor, at least in XFL terms, is that he didn't surpass the 50 at bat
threshhold to lose his farm status so his salary, should he prove to be
keeper-worthy, will only increase by +3 per year. So even though
I overpaid for Lavarnway on the surface, he's actually a pretty good
risk, especially at catcher. Also appealing was the fact that his
removal from the free agent pool meant that the other teams had one
fewer quality bat to bid for at catcher, and seeing as how there were
19 spots that needed to be filled, I was hoping that would put some
pressure on the other owners to overpay for good catching.
When Halladay went for $42 I was very nervous that I was going to have
to go way over my limit to land Greinke. As it turns out, I
rostered him for far below what I expected and in hindsight, it might
be the best move I made all draft. Halladay will be turning 35
this year and as great as he's been, there simply haven't been too many
pitchers in history who continued to pitch at their career best levels
into their mid-30s. In fact, Halladay, Nolan
Ryan, Steve Carlton, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Kevin Brown, Curt
Schilling and Jim Bunning are the only starters in the modern era to
post a season with better than 7.0 Ks per 9 innings and a WHIP under
1.13 at age 34.
Only Schilling, Johnson, Clemens and Ryan did it again at age 35
or later. Combine that with the fact there's a very real
possibility that the
Phillies infield defense won't be as good this coming year with Howard
out for
part of the season, Utley working on iffy knees and Rollins potentially
gone as a free-agent, there's a decent chance that Halladay's
performance could drop off, perhaps even significantly. On the
other side of the coin,
Greinke was a bit unlucky in 2011 with both injuries and balls in play
and there's a strong probability that his infield defense will improve
this
offseason with the likely departure of Betancourt at short and Fielder
at first (who isn't bad but there are much better glovemen
available). So it wouldn't take a stretch of the imagination to
see Greinke
perform much better than last year, a year in which he struck out
better than 10 batters per nine innings pitched.
Round 2:
Toss |
Player |
Salary |
Roster |
Drooker |
Mark Teixeira |
$45 |
Erickson |
Shandler |
Jimmy Rollins |
$26 |
Ambrosius |
Wood |
Matt Holliday |
$40 |
Kreutzer |
Ambrosius |
Victor Martinez |
$24 |
McCaffrey |
Feldman |
Michael Young |
$25 |
Walton |
Moyer |
Stephen Drew |
$11 |
Walton |
Kreutzer |
Paul Konerko |
$38 |
Shandler |
Winick |
Miguel Montero |
$24 |
McCaffrey |
Zola |
Carl Crawford |
$39 |
Kreutzer |
McCaffrey |
Ryan Zimmerman |
$39 |
McCaffrey |
Dennis |
Derek Jeter |
$14 |
Feldman |
Michaels |
Bobby Abreu |
$2 |
Michaels |
Erickson |
Erick Aybar |
$15 |
Dennis |
Walton |
Ubaldo Jimenez |
$14 |
Ambrosius |
Van Hook |
Joaquin Soria |
$13 |
Ambrosius |
I don't know if my taking Lavarnway in the first round had an impact on
the bidding, but I
did notice that McCann, Victor Martinez and Miguel Montero went for a
combined $73 in the subsequent 20 players tossed.
OK, so much for Teixiera. I was in on him up to $44 but I just
couldn't bring myself to keep the bidding going. Jeff Erickson
looked like he was willing to go much higher and at this point I just
didn't see the wisdom of spending so much on one player who has been in
decline the past three seasons, with the
type of skillset and at an age where huge rebounds are not
commonplace. Of course, in a keeper draft talent maintains
primacy over money so in retrospect I should have pushed it to
at least $47. I also bowed out late on the bidding for Konerko,
who like Teixeira is experiencing a bit of a decline (particularly
after the Break last year) but is four years older. Not to sound
like a broken
record, but I was in late on Zimmerman, too, and as much as I like Zimm
as a player, I couldn't justify spending $40 on him, age 27 season or
not. To be clear, in my opinion Zimmerman is the best third
baseman in the majors. But fantasy baseball doesn't count defense
or intangibles and the fact of the matter is that he's averaged 21
homers, 80 RBI and 80 runs for six years now and he spent the second
half of last season working through some mechanical issues. I
still think he has George Brett-type upside, but at $40 he will have
more than spent those earnings. Granted, my roster needed
stability and guaranteed production but in the next round I got almost
the exact same production for $18.
Round 3:
Toss |
Player |
Salary |
Roster |
Drooker |
Brian Wilson |
$12 |
McCaffrey |
Shandler |
Giovanny Soto |
$14 |
Moyer |
Wood |
Shin-Soo Choo |
$27 |
Walton |
Ambrosius |
Chad Billingsley |
$11 |
Drooker |
Feldman |
Todd Helton |
$6 |
Feldman |
Moyer |
Chris Iannetta |
$15 |
Drooker |
Kreutzer |
Andre Ethier |
$25 |
Dennis |
Winick |
John Buck |
$7 |
Winick |
Zola |
Brandon Phillips |
$22 |
Dennis |
McCaffrey |
Josh Johnson |
$18 |
McCaffrey |
Dennis |
Russell Martin |
$8 |
Van Hook |
Michaels |
Carlos Quentin |
$18 |
Wood |
Erickson |
Ricky Nolasco |
$9 |
Shandler |
Walton |
Kurt Suzuki |
$5 |
Ambrosius |
Van Hook |
Carlos Marmol |
$11 |
Erickson |
Obviously Carlos Quentin doesn't play third base so I still have a hole
to fill on the roster, but for $20 less I got as much homer, RBI and
run scoring potential as I would have gotten from overpaying for
Zimmerman. I lose some ground in on base percentage but the
difference wasn't enough to grind my teeth over.
I seriously considered getting into a bidding war over Josh Johnson
because he is a special talent. But since his last two seasons
concluded early due to shoulder issues, and last year my own team's
misfortunes sprang from pitchers who were trying to make it back from
shoulder problems, that was one risk I was determined to avoid
this year. Consequently, I also stayed away from Francisco
Liriano and Johan Santana, both pitchers I really like talent-wise but
who have struggled to keep their shoulders pain-free. I love
watching them pitch but that's just too much agita to roster.
Round 4:
Toss |
Player |
Salary |
Roster |
Drooker |
Paul Goldschmidt |
$20 |
Wood |
Shandler |
AJ Burnett |
$5 |
Shandler |
Wood |
Matt Garza |
$19 |
Wood |
Ambrosius |
Carlos Lee |
$12 |
Walton |
Feldman |
Yadier Molina |
$10 |
Dennis |
Moyer |
Yunel Escobar |
$10 |
Michaels |
Kreutzer |
Alex Rios |
$2 |
Zola |
Winick |
Tim Hudson |
$12 |
Moyer |
Zola |
Ichiro Suzuki |
$20 |
Moyer |
McCaffrey |
Jon Niese |
$6 |
McCaffrey |
Dennis |
Domonic Brown |
$14 |
Winick |
Michaels |
Andrew Bailey |
$7 |
Erickson |
Erickson |
Chris Perez |
$11 |
Walton |
Walton |
Ivan Nova |
$6 |
Van Hook |
Van Hook |
Clay Buchholz |
$10 |
Kreutzer |
In spring training, I
pointed out Paul Goldschmidt as someone to keep an eye on. He
just looked like he
belonged in the majors, the way he carried himself, the way his at bats
played out... there was just something that said "big leaguer". I
know that's not useful for any kind of meaningful analysis, but there
are things that affect career trending that aren't revealed by a study
of the numbers. But you know what is? Before last season
the Diamondbacks asked him to work on cutting down his strikeouts and
he responded by reducing his rate by almost 7% while advancing a
level. As a bonus he nearly doubled his walk rate, too. To
me, that indicates not only is he coachable but he's also smart enough
to figure out how pitchers are trying to get him out and make the
appropriate adjustments. If you watched the post season, he
showed some very advanced thinking at the plate in key
situations. I'm not saying I'll get the same production as
Teixieria
or Konerko at half the price, but I do think there are a lot of
positives in his ledger.
I also like Matt Garza quite a bit this year. He was unlucky in
several metrics in 2011 and with new, much smarter management in
Chicago I think his supporting cast will only get better. He made
a name for himself as a prospect in 2006 advancing through four levels
with spectacular ERAs, WHIPS, control and strikeout rates on his way to
the majors. There are
a
number of signs pointing to 2012 as the year he realizes the
potential he showed back then.
I talked with several of the participants after the draft and it was
fairly unanimous that the simultaneous broadcast was distracting at
times during the bidding. The commentators were occasionally
quite loud in their conversations and since they were sitting only
about 15 feet away from the table, it was hard to hear who was being
bid on and what the bid was. This partially explains some of the
unusually low winning bids on some players.
Round 5:
Toss |
Player |
Salary |
Roster |
Drooker |
Mark Reynolds |
$17 |
Michaels |
Shandler |
Nick Markakis |
$31 |
Shandler |
Wood |
Chris Sale |
$9 |
Winick |
Ambrosius |
David Ortiz |
$14 |
Ambrosius |
Feldman |
Miguel Olivo |
$2 |
Erickson |
Moyer |
Shane Victorino |
$19 |
Walton |
Kreutzer |
Marlon Byrd |
$4 |
Winick |
Winick |
Roy Oswalt |
$9 |
Feldman |
Zola |
Torii Hunter |
$14 |
Dennis |
McCaffrey |
Jonathan Sanchez |
$5 |
McCaffrey |
Dennis |
Jim Johnson |
$3 |
Wood |
Michaels |
Johnny Giavotella |
$6 |
McCaffrey |
Erickson |
Jason Motte |
$6 |
Wood |
Walton |
Sergio Santos |
$6 |
Winick |
Van Hook |
Rick Porcello |
$3 |
Ambrosius |
I was in on the bidding for Chris Sale. I always come away
impressed seeing him perform whether it's on the mound or in
interviews. I don't know how exactly that will play out this
coming season but I'm optimistic that he will be able to put his
considerable talent to good use. Afterward, Jeff Winick (who is
from Chicago) confessed it was just stupid pride that made him stay in
the bidding but I doubt he'll end up regretting it when the season is
over. Sale shouldn't have much trouble making the transition from
the bullpen to the rotation, especially with pitching guru Don Cooper
guiding him.
From this round I came away with two relievers... well, I hope two
closers. Neither guy has been named the de facto closer for his
team, but both performed very well down the stretch and barring a
catastrophic spring I would hope that both have a head start toward
claiming the job. Kenley Jansen was another reliever I wanted who
is in a similar position, but roster spots are limited and these two
were the first to be offered.
Round 6:
Toss |
Player |
Salary |
Roster |
Drooker |
Chipper Jones |
$4 |
Winick |
Shandler |
Michael Cuddyer |
$11 |
Van Hook |
Wood |
Brian Roberts |
$7 |
Wood |
Ambrosius |
Vernon Wells |
$2 |
Kreutzer |
Feldman |
Trevor Cahill |
$6 |
Wood |
Moyer |
Rafael Furcal |
$6 |
Zola |
Kreutzer |
Derrek Lee |
$5 |
Ambrosius |
Winick |
Justin Morneau |
$8 |
Winick |
Zola |
Jayson Werth |
$22 |
Wood |
McCaffrey |
Aaron Hill |
$10 |
Kreutzer |
Dennis |
Wandy Rodriguez |
$10 |
Ambrosius |
Michaels |
Jason Kubel |
$4 |
Erickson |
Erickson |
Ryan Dempster |
$6 |
Drooker |
Walton |
Francisco Liriano |
$3 |
Winick |
Van Hook |
Brain Anderson |
$6 |
Erickson |
No doubt you are asking, "why Brian Roberts?" The honest answer
is that I thought he was a decent risk. That and since I hadn't
planned on
having this much money at this point in the draft I didn't know
where else to spend it. The original plan was to have spent most
of
the cash on corner guys and an ace or two, but when that didn't
transpire I still had a ton of money and only one starter, a middle
infield, a third base and an outfield slot to spend it on. I had
designated my final two pitching slots for Juan Nicasio and Addison
Reed and neither of them was going to cost a great deal. As you
can surmise, by this time in the draft the pickings for non-outfield
offense were pretty slim.
That said, medical reports for Roberts have been good over the last
month: no symptoms from his concussion and all his other nicks and
bruises have fully healed. Assuming that's not just offseason
falderall, a fully healthy Roberts, even at age 34, is a .350 on base,
25-30 steal middle infielder if he can stay on the field for the full
season. Even with the concussion issues his stolen base rate and
success rate have not dropped off substantially from what he offered in
2009. If he's completely healthy, I got a $20-25 player for
$7. If not, I didn't spend much and will get his replacement,
however inferior, for $1.
Trevor Cahill, like Greinke and Garza, was undone in 2011 by some bad
luck
but has a very nice minor league pedrigee pointing to better days ahead
and is trending in the right direction. Like them he also a smart
GM who knows how to improve a supporting cast. Billy Beane will
have his work cut out for him this winter as the A's infield defense
went south in a big way last year.
And now we get to Jayson Werth. There were a lot of "I told you
sos" handed out last year as Werth struggled through his first season
in Washington. Yes, the park played a part. But what isn't
often mentioned is that he was asked to do a lot of things he normally
isn't asked to do. For example, the previous two years, 86% of
his at bats came from either the 5th or the 6th spot in the
line-up. In 2011, it was less than 40%. Team injuries and
lack of talent in the line-up was the culprit. That won't be as
much of an issue in 2012 as GM Mike Rizzo has made it a priority to
find a lead-off hitter and some more depth, meaning Werth should fit
back in the 5-hole where he is most comfortable. Combine that
with some better luck with balls in play and we should see a season
more in line with what he did in Philly.
Round 7:
Toss |
Player |
Salary |
Roster |
Drooker |
Carlos Beltran |
$15 |
Feldman |
Shandler |
James McDonald |
$2 |
Drooker |
Wood |
Juan Nicasio |
$1 |
Wood |
Ambrosius |
Nick Swisher |
$17 |
Winick |
Feldman |
Huston Street |
$3 |
Winick |
Moyer |
Homer Bailey |
$3 |
McCaffrey |
Kreutzer |
Vladimir Guerrero |
$1 |
Kreutzer |
Winick |
Jose Tabata |
$10 |
Winick |
Zola |
Kendrys Morales |
$8 |
McCaffrey |
McCaffrey |
Neil Walker |
$10 |
Walton |
Dennis |
Hiroki Kuroda |
$3 |
Drooker |
Michaels |
Chase Headley |
$8 |
Wood |
Erickson |
Alfonso Soriano |
$6 |
Moyer |
Walton |
Emilio Bonifacio |
$13 |
Walton |
Van Hook |
Johnny Venters |
$2 |
Van Hook |
I still didn't have a third basemen but I was more or less targeting
Chase Headley at this point in the draft. Even though he plays in
a very tough park for hitters, he gets on base, steals a few bags and
should see a boost in home run power as he enters his peak years.
The Padres are rumored to be open to trading him because they feel they
have other options at third (James Darnell, Jedd Gyorko and Logan
Forsythe) so he might actually see a significant boost in his power
numbers if he falls into the right situation. Last year's lack of
home run production is concerning but can be partially explained by a
hand injury. His doubles rate actually increased so the power is
still there. If he ends up in a better park, we could see 15-20
homers out of Headley with regular playing time in addition to the
aforementioned goodness.
Round 8 and beyond:
Drooker |
Ian Desmond |
$13 |
Winick |
Shandler |
Ryan Doumit |
$4 |
Winick |
Wood |
Addison Reed |
$1 |
Wood |
Ambrosius |
Mike Morse |
$15 |
Walton |
Feldman |
David Robertson |
$2 |
Walton |
Moyer |
Carlos Pena |
$12 |
Winick |
Kreutzer |
Edwin Jackson |
$1 |
Kreutzer |
Winick |
none
|
-
|
-
|
Zola |
Grady Sizemore |
$12 |
McCaffrey |
McCaffrey |
Dayan Viciedo |
$1 |
McCaffrey |
Dennis |
Daniel Bard |
$4 |
Kreutzer |
Michaels |
Aaron Crow |
$4 |
Van Hook |
Erickson |
Delmon Young |
$3 |
Erickson |
Walton |
Colby Lewis |
$3 |
Zola |
Van Hook |
JD Martinez |
$4 |
Ambrosius |
Both Nicasio and Reed possess mid-90s fastballs with very good
control. Both experienced some bad luck - Nicasio with strand
rates and Reed with balls in play - but the talent is there to be
excellent contributors this year. Nicasio will have to overcome
some physical and psychological obstacles from his unfortunate incident
with a comebacker last year but all signs so far have been
positive. Along with Pomeranz, Darvish and Bauer, these two will
add to a pitching staff that has some quality youth and upside.
On the offensive side, obviously there are some question marks.
Will Brandon Belt get a chance to play everyday? Has Brian
Roberts fully recovered? Can Carlos Quentin stay healthy enough
for 550 at bats? Will a change of management help both he and
Gordon Beckham, not to mention Adam Dunn and Alex Rios?
Regardless of who ends up being the White Sox hitting coach, it will
help immensely having Robin Ventura as the manager over Ozzie
Guillen. I'm not down on Ozzie Guillen... he brings a lot to the
table. But Ventura, like Charlie Manuel in Philadelphia, was a
good hitter and knows what it takes to keep a consistent swing for a
full season. I'm not sure that's one of Guillen's
strengths.
I ended up leaving the table with $27 in tow so perhaps in retrospect I
should have
gone higher on Alex Rodriguez or one of the other big names.
However, the question is this: could I have
gotten ARod for $37? He went for $29 but as with several players
that
doesn't mean I could have ended up with him for one dollar more than he
went. In the case of Zimmerman, it was Gene McCaffrey and I alone
taking him from the high 20s to his final price of $39 and I am
convinced Gene would have gone into the mid 40s before pausing.
So
while it seems like I left a lot of money on the table, I'm not
convinced it was useable. And then the other question is would
the other player have justified the extra expenditure? Time will
tell. One advantage of leaving money on the table is that it
gives cap room to make deals during the season. The XFL has a
hard cap on active salary of $325, so an extra $27 of wiggle room is
pretty significant if I need to take on a big salary in trade.
And with keeper lists as loaded as they are, leaving some money on the
table isn't necessarily a sign of not understanding the value in the
player pool, especially considering this draft takes place just days
after the free agency period opens and a full four months before spring
training games even begin.
Like most drafts, my Plan A didn't come to fruition. There are
simply too many moving parts for a draft plan to fall in place
perfectly, at least in a deep competitive league like this one.
I'm not even sure most people come away with Plan B in tact.
However, I didn't need to divert to any players who were not on my
"want
list" (I prioritize a list of 40 or so players I'd like to roster
before any baseball draft in which I participate) and I'm pretty sure I
didn't repeat last year's
Plan
9 from Outer Space. Regardless, this was only the opening
salvo as almost half the players that will eventually comprise our
teams are still unrostered, to be added in the spring supplemental
draft at the end of March. All I wanted to do is come away with
some big pieces in place and have an eye for a few feasible options to
fill out the rest in the spring. For now I'll call this Plan C
for "capable"... and hopefully, "championship".
XFL Starting
Rosters for 2012