November 6, 2013
“The first player thrown in
this 2014 XFL draft is roto-fanboy favorite and primary reason the Washington
Nationals did not make the playoffs - Dan Haren, for $5.”
It was intended as a joke. Granted,
I had just landed in Phoenix not two hours before after traveling for 7 hours,
and I was running on 2 hours sleep so the joke was probably funnier in my head.
And it’s true that Dan Haren was dreadful for the first half of last season and
that the Nationals never really recovered from it. Truth be told, however,
their offense didn’t really get on track until August and that losing Mike
Morse at the plate and in the clubhouse created a bigger void than the addition
of Denard Span could offset. But I honestly expected that people would only
chortle or at least titter a little at my commentary, and then erupt into terse
bout of bidding that would culminate in a winning bid of at least $9 for a
pitcher who over the last 5 years has averaged about a $15 salary.
However there was only
silence.
I quickly checked the piece
of paper that listed all of the payers who were eligible for this draft to make
sure that Dan Haren was indeed a free agent and available for bidding.
Crickets chirped.
My strategy had been to
throw him out at the mid-range of his perceived value coming off a down year to
see how aggressively teams would a) go after pitching since there were 73 pitching slots open to
begin the draft, and b) how much weight the bidding would be on players who
were coming off down years but had given reason for optimism with strong second
half performances.
“Going once.”
Good grief, I thought to
myself, is this really happening? Or am I actually still asleep on the airplane
and this is just a dream. Quick, check to see if I am wearing pants.
Even the crickets were
quiet now.
“Going twice”
Surely someone would be
interested in Dan Haren’s second half where he posted a 1.04 WHIP. Was there
breaking news of an injury? Did his arm fall off? Did his back explode? Had
zombies eaten his brain?
“Sold, Dan Haren for $5 to
Wood.”
Nooooooooo!
So this is how my defense
of the 2013 XFL championship began. With crickets. Somewhere Sam Walker
is snickering and patting himself on the back with a cloven hoof.
By the end, it didn’t turn
out to be too bad of a draft. It just seemed awful at that moment. And as most
drafts are, there are large swings in emotion caused by a number of reasons:
getting a player for less than one expected, missing out on a highly-desired
player, etc. And the feeling one has walking away when the draft is over is
more or less an amplified version of the feelings one has about the last player
rostered. If he was someone you really wanted, then the draft went great. If he
was less than a second choice than the draft was a disaster. Mine, well, I’ll
let you decide.
So without further adieu,
here are the players I acquired and my reasoning behind taking them:
Derek Norris, $1: he was one of four catchers I had targeted who had
good on-base skills and decent power potential. I had entertained thoughts of
re-rostering Joe Mauer fairly inexpensively, thinking that the uncertainty surrounding
his concussion would scare people away. When his price went flying past $20 it
was time to look at Plan B. I’ve been a Norris-booster for a while and his
performance after the All-Star break last year - .333/.400/.556 – was a signal
to me that now might be a good time to acquire him. I was fortunate that he was
available late when most of the catching spots on other rosters had already
been filled.
Brad Miller, $10: There were about a half dozen middle infielders I
was interested in and foremost among them was Aaron Hill. But when his salary
went to my limit ($18) and I still had much of my roster still to fill with big
ticket items, I withdrew to go with another Plan B player. I’m not
disappointed, as Miller is a shortstop with decent power, a modicum of speed
and his career on base in the minors was .409. Spread over three levels last
year he hit 23 doubles, 20 homers, 8 triples and stole 11 bases. He doesn’t
posses exciting tools but like Andrelton
Simmons last year he plays well enough to keep the job for a full
season.
BJ Upton, $11: I really like BJ Upton coming off a down year for
several reasons: 1) the Braves have invested a lot in him and will do
everything they can to make sure he doesn’t repeat last year’s performance, 2)
players often suffer a down year after signing their first big contract but
bounce back to previous levels once the pressure of high expectations is off,
and 3) the last time he had a year remotely as bad as last year he came back
with a .300/.386/.508 slashline with 24 homers and 22 steals. He has the talent
to produce some impressive numbers; it’s just a matter of getting his head
right.
Coco Crisp, $21: I’ve always been a little cuckoo for Coco but I
have no illusions about his power outburst in 2013 being the shape of things to
come. I am hoping that he reverts to his 15 homer/30 steal old self. Curtis
Granderson was the other outfielder I was considering but when his name came up
I still had a few pitching slots to fill and there was a lot of competition for
the top names and a lot of money still on the table. I did not want to risk
losing out on everything so I passed on Granderson, got my pitchers and lucked
into Coco.
Dan Haren, $5: As noted before, Haren wasn’t in my plans.
However, his second half performance is noteworthy and if his back is fully
healthy and he can continue on that pace, this might be a steal. He’s a free
agent so I hope his agent is scouting only the teams with the best
chiropractors on staff.
CC Sabathia, $8: This was another Haren-type selection. I was very
surprised he didn’t get more interest (at least into double digit dollars) and
ended up with the winning bid. Sabathia had a down year all around and I am hoping
his drop in velocity over the past couple years is largely due to the fatigue
of pitching an extra 20-30 innings in the post-season every year. That was
something that the Braves trio of Hall of Famers – Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz –
often mentioned as one of their biggest challenges year after year: overcoming
the fatigue from the extra work in the post-season. He’ll get an extra month of
rest this offseason so it will be worth watching if his old velocity or some
semblance of it returns next spring. If not, I have very little optimism that
this was nothing more than a wasted pick. If it does return, however, this
could turn out really nice.
Josh Johnson, $1: Johnson was purely a speculative play. Just about
everything that could go wrong statistically in 2013 did. His BABIP and homers
per flyball were way up and strand rate was way down, all of which resulted in
an ERA north of 6.00. However, his expected fielding independent pitching shows
his ERA should have been about 3.60. He didn’t show any drop in velocity and
the arm problem that ultimately shelved him was forearm stiffness, not his
elbow or shoulder. Granted, that could be a symptom of a more significant
problem but to date it doesn’t look like it was a serious issue. More will be
known once he resumes throwing. But assuming he takes his free agency back to
the National League, presumably on an incentive-laden deal, this could be a
nice play. When he’s been healthy he’s been one of the best starting pitchers
in baseball.
Scott Kazmir, $1: This one really surprised me. I was expecting to
pay as much as $10 for him. Despite not making the Indians team out of spring
training, he was one of the American League leaders in Game Score 60+ games. A game score
of 60 or better generally denotes a game in which a pitcher performed
exceptionally well. Of Kazmir’s 29 starts, 13 of them scored 60 or better. What
makes him very intriguing is that the reason for his bad starts was painfully
obvious: when he kept the ball on the ground, he was great but when he elevated
and gave up a majority of flyballs, he got hammered. Over the second half of
the season, he kept it down in the strikezone. His ERA dropped a full run
(3.38) and his strikeout-to-walk ratio increased to 4.82 Ks per walk. In
September he was even better, striking out 43 while walking only 4. Perhaps
most importantly, the velocity on his fastball returned to what it was during
his peak seasons with the Rays. If he ends up pitching for a National League
team next season, he might have a season comparable to that which CC
Sabathia enjoyed when he was in Milwaukee.
Joaquin Soria, $3: This was another speculative play. The Rangers are
one of several teams that are willing to take their chances on a closer and
won’t pay top dollar to sign a premier free agent for the job. Joe Nathan is a
free agent and will probably price himself out of their market, so his likely
successor will come from someone already on the roster. Alexi Ogando is one
possibility as is Tanner Scheppers. Neftali Feliz spent a season closing but
melted down in the World Series and doesn’t appear to have the mental foritude
for the job. But Soria, who was signed for two years with the idea that he
could close should Joe Nathan not return to form, could be the guy. He had the
best strikeout rate of anyone in the bullpen and his velocity is almost 100%
back to what it was in Kansas City.
Ernesto Frieri, $10: I’m not sure why the Angels continue to fidget
with their closer position. Frieri has good velocity and a great strikeout
pitch, and his strikeout numbers reflect that. He had two meltdowns that
resulted in 8 earned runs being scored in 1 inning pitched last year. Without
those two games, his ERA for 2013 would have been 2.79, which is not too far
off what he’s posted in each of the previous three years. He looked reasonably
solid in August and September (combined 3.08 ERA over 23.67 innings with 32 Ks
versus 4 walks and a WHIP of 0.971) so I am hoping the Angels will find better
things to do with their time this winter than look for a new closer. They
certainly have plenty of needs that are more pressing to be addressed.
And last but perhaps not
least, Geovanny Soto, $2: This one I’m scratching my head on, too. Yes,
it is a good idea to have three or four catchers for the long haul and yes,
Soto was ranked 3rd overall in baseball in wOBA over the second half
of last season, trailing only Jayson Werth and Mike Trout. And he does have
some history of solid performance at the major league level, although that was
back in 2008-2010. But, honestly, my brain just shorted out when his name was
thrown out. The guy I was thinking of when Ron Shandler tossed out was Dionner
Navarro. I thought since Ron needed a catcher he would at least go to $3. I was
wrong. What makes it worse is that I still had $20 to spend on a utility spot
with players like Victor Martinez, Rickie Weeks, Marlon Byrd, Angel Pagan,
Chris Johnson, Derek Jeter, Mike Moustakas, etc yet to be thrown. If Soto
returns to his peak then it won’t have been a wasted opportunity. Otherwise,
I’m going to blame a lack of sleep.
I take great comfort in
knowing that any of my
obvious blunders can be at least partially corrected in the spring draft.
Here’s hoping for a beneficial hot stove season and a lot more sleep before
then.