The Compleat Gallo

October 21, 2016

I have to say that I have never been so intrigued with the future of a player than I am with Joey Gallo. The reason is that in this day and age of seeing the repackaging of everything that has happened before, we might be seeing something entirely new: a player who truly embodies the three true outcomes of a hitter. No one in history has his combination of tremendous power, the ability to draw a walk and the inability to make consistent contact. And believe me, I’ve looked. Most players generate comp scores – which is basically a picture of who the player’s statistical legacy will resemble - that have at least one player in the neighborhood of 95% similarity. Most have numerous statistical dopplegangers. Gallo’s closest comp scored a 65%. His combination of power, strikeouts and walks is as unique as it gets.

What follows is a comparison to a number of the wildest swinging/disciplined sluggers on which there is strong information. The list includes a wide range of successes and failures: Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Javier Baez, Mitch Moreland, Greg Halman, Telvin Nash, Miguel Sano, Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Cody Johnson, etc... you get the idea.

What will be obvious from the numbers is that Gallo’s contact rate in the majors is worse than all of them (at least the ones who made it that far), although it's very close to that of Javier Baez when he first came up. His strikeout rate is worse as well, in some cases more than 10% worse even in the minors. There's no question he has been dangerously insufficient making contact. However, he is younger than most of them were at the same levels and he showed significant improvement this year. And his swinging strike rate is very close to that of Branyan and Carter when they first arrived despite being two years younger. His walk rate is better than all of them, much better in some cases. And then there's the power: roughly one in every three hits is a home run for his entire career including the majors. 

So what can we expect from Gallo next year and beyond?

I decide to break it down by age so with each table I’ll follow with some commentary.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2011	Azl Cubs	Ariz	Rk	chn	ss	18	-3.1	3	12	2	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.333	0.500	833	0.167	0.333	0.400	--	--	6	12	0.000	0.167
Baez	2011	Boise	Nwst	A-	chn	ss	18	-3.4	2	6	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.167	0.167	0.167	334	0.000	0.000	0.250	--	--	1	6	0.000	0.333
Branyan	1994	Burlington	App	Rk	cle	3B	18	-2	55	171	21	36	10	0	5	13	4	2	25	64	4	2	0	1	3	0.211	0.323	0.357	680	0.146	0.304	0.301	2.56	34.20	61	201	0.124	0.327
C Johnson	2007	Danville	App	Rk	atl	Of	18	-2.6	63	243	51	74	18	5	17	57	7	0	26	72	1	0	0	0	1	0.305	0.374	0.630	1004	0.325	0.461	0.370	2.77	14.30	153	270	0.096	0.268
Carter	2005	Bristol	App	Rk	cha	31	18	-2.7	65	233	33	66	17	0	10	37	2	1	17	64	8	0	2	2	4	0.283	0.350	0.485	835	0.202	0.279	0.348	3.76	23.30	113	262	0.065	0.256
Cust	1997	Azl Diamondbacks	Ariz	Rk	ari	of	18	-1.3	35	121	26	37	11	1	3	33	2	0	31	39	0	0	0	0	4	0.306	0.447	0.488	935	0.182	0.455	0.430	1.26	40.30	59	152	0.204	0.257
Dunn	1998	Billings	Pio	Rk	cin	of	18	-2.3	34	125	26	36	3	1	4	13	4	2	22	23	3	1	0	1	3	0.288	0.404	0.424	828	0.136	0.328	0.323	1.05	31.30	53	151	0.146	0.156
Gallo	2012	Azl Rangers	Ariz	Rk	tex	3b	18	-2.8	43	150	44	44	10	1	18	43	6	0	37	52	3	1	0	3	0	0.293	0.435	0.733	1168	0.440	0.727	0.313	1.41	8.30	110	193	0.192	0.278
Gallo	2012	Spokane	Nwst	A-	tex	3b	18	-3.4	16	56	9	12	2	0	4	9	0	0	11	26	0	2	0	0	0	0.214	0.343	0.464	807	0.250	0.446	0.308	2.36	14.00	26	67	0.164	0.388
Halman	2006	Everett	Nwst	A-	sea	of	18	-3.4	28	116	19	30	6	4	5	15	10	4	3	32	3	1	1	0	2	0.259	0.295	0.509	804	0.250	0.328	0.316	10.67	23.20	59	123	0.024	0.269
McPherson	1999	The Citadel	Socon	College			18		31	87	14	21	4	0	1	14	0	0	11	30	1		1	1		0.241	0.330	0.322	652	0.080	0.207	0.351	2.73	87.00	28	101	0.109	0.306
Nash	2009	GCL Astros	GCL	Rk	hou	lf	18	-2.8	40	142	15	31	10	1	1	20	1	2	12	45	1	0	0	2	6	0.218	0.280	0.324	604	0.106	0.183	0.306	3.75	142.00	46	157	0.076	0.292
Sano	2011	Elizabethton	App	Rk	min	3b	18	-2.9	66	267	58	78	18	7	20	59	5	4	23	77	2	0	0	1	4	0.292	0.352	0.637	989	0.345	0.434	0.339	3.35	13.40	170	293	0.078	0.266
Wood	2003	Provo	Pio	Rk	ana	ss	18	-2.8	42	162	25	45	13	2	5	31	1	1	16	48	2	0	0	1	2	0.278	0.348	0.475	823	0.198	0.296	0.364	3.00	32.40	77	181	0.088	0.270
Wood	2003	Azl Angels	Ariz	Rk	ana	ss	18	-2.5	19	78	14	24	8	2	0	13	3	0	4	15	2	0	0	2	2	0.308	0.349	0.462	811	0.154	0.244	0.369	3.75	--	36	86	0.047	0.183

So here is our first inkling that we might be looking at something special. Gallo was drafted out of high school and sent to the Arizona Short Season League where he broke the league record for homers. Most high school hitters are considered good power prospects if they hit 9-10 homers in a season, or maybe 30 in a high school career; Gallo hit 67. Notice the other players on the list who also have a lot of homers; see how many more at bats they have? Close to 100 more than Gallo. Also notice his walk rate; it more than doubles most of the hitters on the list. The strikeout rate? Yes, we’re seeing the whole enchilada right away.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2012	Peoria	Midw	A	chn	ss	19	-3	57	213	41	71	10	5	12	33	20	3	9	48	10	0	0	3	3	0.333	0.383	0.596	979	0.263	0.385	0.378	5.33	17.80	127	235	0.038	0.216
Baez	2012	Daytona	FSL	A+	chn	ss	19	-4.6	23	80	9	15	3	1	4	13	4	2	5	21	1	1	0	0	1	0.188	0.244	0.400	644	0.213	0.300	0.200	4.20	20.00	32	86	0.058	0.247
Branyan	1995	Columbus	SAL	A	cle	3b	19	-2.5	76	277	46	71	8	6	19	55	1	1	27	120	3	2	0	3	6	0.256	0.326	0.534	860	0.278	0.375	0.369	4.44	14.60	148	310	0.087	0.395
C Johnson	2008	Rome	SAL	A	atl	of	19	-3.2	127	468	62	118	26	1	26	89	8	3	40	177	0	0	0	6	8	0.252	0.307	0.479	786	0.226	0.323	0.339	4.43	18.00	224	514	0.078	0.348
Carter	2006	Great Falls	Pio	Rk	cha	1b	19	-2.2	69	251	37	75	21	1	15	59	4	4	34	70	8	5	0	1	3	0.299	0.398	0.570	968	0.271	0.406	0.359	2.06	16.70	143	294	0.116	0.246
Carter	2006	Kannapolis	SAL	A	cha	1b	19	-3.2	13	46	4	6	3	0	1	5	0	0	5	17	1	0	0	0	1	0.130	0.231	0.261	492	0.130	0.239	0.179	3.40	46.00	12	52	0.096	0.333
Cust	1998	Lethbridge	Pio	Rk	ari	of	19	-1.3	73	223	75	77	20	2	11	56	15	8	86	71	4	3	0	2	3	0.345	0.530	0.601	1131	0.256	0.673	0.462	0.83	20.30	134	315	0.273	0.230
Cust	1998	South Bend	Midw	A	ari	1b	19	-2.6	16	62	5	15	3	0	0	4	0	1	5	20	0	1	0	1	0	0.242	0.294	0.290	584	0.048	0.113	0.349	4.00	--	18	68	0.074	0.299
Dunn	1999	Rockford	Midw	A	cin	of	19	-2.7	93	313	62	96	16	2	11	44	21	10	46	64	10	3	0	3	6	0.307	0.409	0.476	885	0.169	0.351	0.353	1.39	28.50	149	372	0.124	0.178
Gallo	2013	Azl Rangers	Ariz	Rk	tex	3b	19	-1.9	5	19	4	7	4	0	2	10	1	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	0	0.368	0.429	0.895	1324	0.526	0.684	0.500	3.50	9.50	17	21	0.095	0.333
Gallo	2013	Hickory	SAL	A	tex	3b	19	-3.3	106	392	82	96	19	5	38	78	14	1	48	165	5	1	0	1	2	0.245	0.334	0.610	944	0.365	0.520	0.305	3.44	10.30	239	446	0.108	0.375
Halman	2007	Everett	Nwst	A-	sea	of	19	-2.2	62	238	37	73	19	1	16	37	16	8	21	85	4	4	1	1	2	0.307	0.371	0.597	968	0.290	0.412	0.413	4.05	14.90	142	265	0.079	0.328
Halman	2007	Wisconsin	Midw	A	sea	of	19	-3	52	187	26	34	5	0	4	15	15	7	8	77	5	0	1	1	1	0.182	0.234	0.273	507	0.091	0.176	0.280	9.63	46.80	51	202	0.040	0.395
McPherson	2000	The Citadel	NCAA	College	so		19		59	233	50	88	18	3	9	55	3	1	25	42	2		2	2	2	0.378	0.439	0.597	1036	0.219	0.335	0.429	1.68	25.90	139	264	0.095	0.163
Nash	2010	Greeneville	App	Rk	hou	lf	19	-2.1	57	200	30	53	12	1	12	39	1	1	25	64	1	0	0	1	5	0.265	0.348	0.515	863	0.250	0.375	0.328	2.56	16.70	103	227	0.110	0.284
Nash	2010	Tri City	NYPL	A-	hou	lf	19	-2.5	4	13	2	4	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	0	0	0.308	0.308	0.769	1077	0.462	0.385	0.600	--	13.00	10	13	0.000	0.538
Sano	2012	Beloit	Midw	A	min	3b	19	-3	129	457	75	118	28	4	28	100	8	3	80	144	8	4	0	8	10	0.258	0.373	0.521	894	0.263	0.449	0.307	1.80	16.30	238	553	0.145	0.268
Wood	2004	Cedar Rapids	Midw	A	ana	ss	19	-2.9	125	478	65	120	30	5	11	64	21	5	46	117	5	3	4	2	8	0.251	0.322	0.404	726	0.153	0.282	0.310	2.54	43.50	193	535	0.086	0.223

Another pattern is beginning to emerge: upon first exposure to a level he struggles mightily but makes adjustments and the second time through just mashes the ball. Again he is among the leaders on this board in walk rate as well as one of the youngest compared to his competition, both promising signs for a bright future. It was after this season that Gallo worked with Jason Giambi on his hitting, as well as Troy Tulowitzki on his defensive footwork.

Player	Year	Team	Lg	Level	Org	Pos	Age	Diff	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	GDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	secA	Babip	K/BB	AB/HR	TB	PA	BB%	K%
Baez	2013	Daytona	FSL	A+	chn	ss	20	-3.8	76	299	59	82	19	4	17	57	12	2	21	78	11	0	0	6	8	0.274	0.338	0.535	873	0.261	0.365	0.310	3.71	17.60	160	337	0.062	0.244
Baez	2013	Tennessee	Sou	AA	chn	ss	20	-4.7	54	218	39	64	15	0	20	54	8	2	19	69	0	2	0	3	3	0.294	0.346	0.638	984	0.344	0.459	0.333	3.63	10.90	139	240	0.079	0.291
Branyan	1996	Columbus	SAL	A	cle	3b	20	-1.4	130	482	102	129	20	4	40	106	7	4	62	166	5	5	0	3	4	0.268	0.355	0.575	930	0.307	0.442	0.319	2.68	12.10	277	552	0.112	0.305
C Davis	2006	Spokane	Nwst	A-	tex	of-1b	20	-1.4	69	253	38	70	18	1	15	42	2	3	23	65	3	2	0	1	4	0.277	0.343	0.534	877	0.257	0.344	0.316	2.83	16.90	135	280	0.082	0.236
C Johnson	2009	Myrtle Beach	Caro	A+	atl	lf	20	-3.3	122	422	59	102	18	1	32	84	10	7	64	171	4	7	0	3	8	0.242	0.345	0.517	862	0.275	0.434	0.315	2.67	13.20	218	493	0.130	0.352
C Johnson	2009	Mississippi	Sou	AA	atl	lf	20	-4.6	6	22	2	4	0	0	0	3	1	0	3	9	0	0	0	0	0	0.182	0.280	0.182	462	0.000	0.182	0.308	3.00	--	4	25	0.120	0.360
Carter	2007	Kannapolis	SAL	A	cha	1b	20	-2.2	126	467	84	136	27	3	25	93	3	2	67	112	6	3	0	5	6	0.291	0.383	0.522	905	0.231	0.377	0.331	1.67	18.70	244	545	0.123	0.210
Cust	1999	High Desert	Calif	A+	ari	of	20	-2.9	125	455	107	152	42	3	32	112	1	4	96	145	2	2	0	3	5	0.334	0.450	0.651	1101	0.316	0.521	0.427	1.51	14.20	296	556	0.173	0.263
Dunn	2000	Dayton	Midw	A	cin	of	20	-1.8	122	420	101	118	29	1	16	79	24	5	100	101	12	4	0	6	10	0.281	0.428	0.469	897	0.188	0.471	0.330	1.01	26.30	197	538	0.186	0.194
Gallo	2014	Myrtle Beach	Caro	A+	tex	3b	20	-3.2	58	189	53	61	9	3	21	50	5	3	51	64	2	3	0	4	3	0.323	0.463	0.735	1198	0.413	0.693	0.370	1.25	9.00	139	246	0.207	0.267
Gallo	2014	Frisco	Tex	AA	tex	3b	20	-4.5	68	250	44