An Alternative to Wins
October 17, 2013
With the progression
of new statistics into the baseball media, there has been a groundswell -
at least in fantasy circles - to develop a new category that better describes a
starting pitcher’s contributions than does Wins. The problem with wins is that
it is dependent on factors beyond the actual performance of the starting
pitcher. His offense has to score more runs than he allows while he’s still in
the game and the bullpen has to hold that lead until the end of the game. For
this reason, great real-life pitchers like Felix Hernandez who pitch for lousy
teams are often not as valuable as lesser pitchers on better teams.
Personally, for fantasy
purposes I'm ok with wins for its simplicity, and I think it should cost more
to buy pitchers on better teams the same way it costs more to buy hitters on
better teams due to the increased RBI opportunities. But I also like to explore
better ways to demonstrate the true quality of players. I'm not thrilled with
quality starts as a stat, largely because most formulas for quality starts
frankly fail to live up to the one condition they promise: quality. Giving up 3
runs over 6 innings yields a 4.50 ERA, and I don’t know of any fantasy player
who clamors to load up on pitchers with that kind of performance.
So I'd like to offer GS60+
as at least an alternative to consider. It's not a stat per se and I don't know
if most stats services can accommodate it (maybe if enough people request it
they will), but it does address many of the concerns that have been expressed.
Namely it shows statistically that a starting pitcher did his job well and it
correlates fairly strongly with the notion that he should have gotten a win for
his performance. Basically, it uses Bill James game score formula to generate a
numerical value, i.e. a game score of 60 or better.
If you're not familiar
with game score, here's how it works:
It’s not as if this is a
brand new concept. James created this evaluator decades ago. ESPN currently
lists starting pitchers by average game score and you can find game scores for
each game on Baseball-Reference.com.
Of course, there is a
downside: you have to use a calculator when you watch a game to know whether or
not your pitcher is helping your cause. I'll admit that's a biggie because
that's basically the reason I left MLB.com
- just couldn't sit back and enjoy the game because I was too concerned with
minutia.
That said, it does a fairly good job of rewarding starting pitchers
for good work:
Starts in which the
starting pitcher got a win in 2013 = 1659
Number of GS 60+ starts in
2013 = 1819
Starts in which the
starting pitcher got a win in 2012 = 1738
Number of GS 60+ starts in
2012 = 1722
And over the last five
years:
Starts in which the
starting pitcher got a win = 8555
Number of GS 60+ starts =
8550
Here is the list of GS60+ leaders
from last year, showing the number of starts in which they reached or surpassed
a game score of 60:
Player
GS60+
Clayton Kershaw 23
Max Scherzer
22
Chris Sale 21
Felix Hernandez 20
Cliff Lee
19
Cole Hamels
19
Hisashi Iwakuma
19
James Shields 19
Jose Fernandez 19
Yu Darvish
19
Adam Wainwright 18
Anibal Sanchez
18
Ervin Santana 18
Madison Bumgarner 18
Justin Verlander
17
Travis Wood 17
Gio Gonzalez
16
Matt Harvey 16
Patrick Corbin 16
Dillon Gee
15
Jordan Zimmermann 15
Lance Lynn
15
Mike Leake
15
Stephen Strasburg 15
Ubaldo Jimenez
15
Zack Greinke
15
David Price 14
Doug Fister
14
Jarrod Parker 14
Justin Masterson 14
Kris Medlen
14
Mat Latos
14
Matt Cain 14
Mike Minor 14
R.A. Dickey 14
Again, I'm just throwing this out
as another way to look at the issue… something to think about this offseason as
you decompress from this season and begin preparing for 2014. Enjoy the hot
stove!