The
National Nightmare
October 15, 2012
I wasn't a fan of Drew Storen before Friday
night. Even the year the Nationals drafted him I thought they should have
drafted someone else. He had trouble with the long ball even in college
and there were plenty of really good high school talents to take that season
like Shelby Miller or Tyler Matzek... or one Mike
Trout. But after Friday night, I am a Drew Storen
fan. He stood at his locker after the Nationals had blown a 6-run lead in
Game 5 of the NLDS and accepted the blame for the team's loss. Many
Nationals fans are calling for GM Mike Rizzo to trade him because they feel
like their epic collapse is too much for one man to bear. But that would
be completely unfair to Storen, especially since very
little of the fault lay with him.
First of all, home plate umpire Alfonzo Marquez refused to call his slider for
a strike. Three times Storen nailed the strikezone with it and three times Marquez stood there like
a bump on a log. One of the sliders was so buried in the Pitch Trak strikezone that it would be
nearly impossible geometrically to throw a pitch that was more in the strikezone. Once Cardinal hitters realized that, they
stopped swinging at his primary outpitch and just waited on the fastball.
People often say that as long as an umpire calls the strikezone
the same way for both teams it is fair, but that's really pretty insipid.
For example, suppose an umpire doesn't call curveballs for a strike for
anyone. He has depth perception problems or had a bad experience or
whatever, but simply doesn't call the deuce. If one team has a pitcher
who throws lots of curveballs and the other team doesn't have anyone who throws
the curve, which team has the advantage? The umpire is calling the game
the same way for both teams, yet one team has very
little chance of winning. The other problem with this thinking is that it
makes an excuse for someone to not adjudicate the game the way it was
intended. They wrote the rules for a particular reason; it's the umpire's
job to call and enforce them. If he is incapable of doing that, he's in
the wrong job. I am mystified by people who advocate advanced metrics and
the introduction of science and technology into the game, but reject those same
advancements being applied to the adjudication of the game. The
technology is available to get these calls right. It's time the humans
either get it right, or we bring in the robots. The game deserves to have
the contest decided only by the players and managers.
But I am not going to lay the blame for the Nationals loss squarely on Marquez'
shoulders. He certainly influenced the outcome, but there was plenty of
blame to go around. For example, Davey Johnson had the option of walking
Pete Kozma with two outs and men on second and third
after the Cardinals had tied the game. Had he walked Kozma, that would have
pitted Storen against Cardinal closer Jason Motte who was due up next for the third out.
Relievers are notoriously awful at two things - holding runners and hitting, and
Motte is no exception even though he began his career
as a catcher. There's a good reason he became a pitcher: he was a career .191 hitter in the minors. Since Marquez wasn't
calling Storen's slider for strikes, the least Davey
Johnson could have done was let him face a hitter who couldn't hit his
fastball. The only response Cardinal manager
Mike Matheny would have had would be to take his closer out of the game and let
his back-up catcher, Tony Cruz, take the at bat. Either way, Storen would have been facing an inferior hitter, not that Kozma is that great in real life. He's a career .236 hitter in the minors but ever since he was called up
he's been hitting like the second coming of Honus
Wagner. So really Johnson's decision should have been obvious - walk the
hot hitter to face either the closer or the back-up catcher, neither of which
pose much threat to drive in the go-ahead runs and if the other guy opts for
the pinch hitter, your team gets to face an inferior pitcher in the bottom of
the inning with a chance to win with the game still tied. Instead, Davey
hung Storen out to dry.
There were other players more at fault than Storen as
well. Tyler Clippard threw a change-up to
Daniel Descalso, a hitter incapable of handling a
good fastball. The change-up was the only pitch Descalso
could hurt him on and Clippard threw it anyway.
Edwin Jackson kept burying fastballs right in the heart of the zone until he
realized that the Cardinals would swing at every slider he threw, regardless if
they were in the strikezone or not.
Unfortunately, he didn't realize this until they had already scored a run off
him. But I would say the biggest goat of the game was Gio
Gonzalez. He was arguably the staff ace, especially with Strasbutg out for the post-season. By any standard he
was one of the two or three best starters in the National League this year and
might very well walk away with the Cy Young award
after the postseason concludes. The Nationals offense had staked
him to a 6-run lead and he gave half of it back in less than an inning.
Had CC Sabathia or Justin Verlander
or Clayton Kershaw or any other staff ace blown such a lead in a crticial game, that's all the annoucers
and the postgame analysts would have been talking about.
Why Gonzalez gets a pass I have no idea, other than it gave them a chance to
prattle on about the Strasburg decision some more. Of the 37 pitches he
threw in the 5th inning, only 16 were for strikes and only 11 of those were
fouls or balls in play. When your team only needs innings to win the
game, that kind of performance is inexcuseable.
With an easy lead and nothing to do but throw
strikes in order to win, he pitched himself out of the game and left the final
four innings to the bullpen. That is why the Nationals lost. Yet
Drew Storen accepted the blame. It is that kind
of character that Storen displayed that championship
teams are made of.
So where do the Nationals go from here? Fortunately, they still have a
very good core of players and pitchers, and next year they'll get a full season
from Strasburg. Still, it's hard to improve on a team that had the best record
in baseball despite enduring significant injuries to their left fielder, their
right fielder, their shortstop, their third baseman and two catchers.
Clearly, they need some more quality depth in the bullpen particularly from the
left side. They don't need to make any changes at the back-end; Storen and Clippard are fine
closing out games. Edwin Jackson's contract is up and pitched well enough
to earn a hefty raise from some other team. He's a fine regular season
pitcher but his lack of pitching instincts really reveals itself in the
post-season and the Nationals need to be focusing on players who will perform
under the kleiglights of October. Adam LaRoche's contract is also up, but the Nationals should do
as much as they can to retain him. First, he is a solid left-handed bat
for a line-up that is primarily right-handed. He's also a good glove at
first base and performed well down the stretch. In short, he's the kind
of complimentary piece the Nationals need to keep. As for acquisitions, I
am hoping Mike Rizzo targets BJ Upton to play centerfield. He's an
excellent fielder and possesses the kind of speed and power that makes scouts
drool over his potential. That would also move Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth to the corners, giving the Nationals the most
athletic outfield in baseball and three outfield arms on which no one in their
right mind would try to take an extra base. The downside is that would mean
the departure of fan favorite Mike Morse, but his skillset
was readily replaced by farm product Tyler Moore while he was on the
shelf. Package Morse and toolsy second baseman
Danny Espinosa, both of whom are under reasonable contracts (Morse is signed
through 2013, Espinosa is a year away from arbitration), for a starting pitcher
with potential. Both the
Whatever Mike Rizzo decides this winter, he knows he already has a team capable
of making the post-season. What he needs to find are more players who
embrace that spotlight, who understand their responsibility in the moment
rather than shrink under the heat.