Analyzing the trade deadline deals
August 1, 2012
I haven't been writing here much lately but I coulnd't pass up an
opportunity to comment on an incredibly busy trade deadline. I
can't remember so many deals happening in such a short time. I'll
try to restrict my comments to fantasy baseball value but there were a
couple players who I think were acquired with only October in
mind.
For example,
Ichiro Suzuki getting
traded to the Yankees. Yes, he adds a good arm to their
outfield and he can still cover some ground there. But his bat
appears to be at the end of its usefulness with some occasional
exceptions. One of those exceptions happens to pitch for what may
be one of the Yankees' stiffer tests in the post-season: Yu Darvish of
the Texas Rangers. The Rangers ousted the Yankees in the 2010
postseason and are the reigning AL champs. They also got stuffed
by the Rangers earlier this year two games to one with one of those
games a dominating performance by Darvish - 8.1 innings, 10 Ks, no runs
allowed. The Rangers rotation has been in flux over the past
month but regardless who they finish the season with, Darvish still
looms for the Yanks. In a seven game series facing him twice
would be daunting; in a five gamer, moreso. However, while he was
with Seattle, Ichiro was 6-for-11 against him and the Mariners are one
of two teams that have given Darvish trouble this season (the other
being the White Sox). My guess is that Ichiro is a big reason why
a terrible offense such as the Mariners has given him so much
trouble. Darvish
grew up in Japan where Ichiro was an icon comparable to Ruth.
Darvish wanted to badly to defeat his countrymen that he lost himself
on the mound trying to defeat a myth rather than pitching to the man
and made uncharacteristic mistakes with his pitches.
I think the Yankees want to have that same advantage come playoff
time. The two teams will meet in August so we'll see if this
theory has any legs, especially since the Yankees are walking wounded
right now.
Wandy Rodriguez to the Pirates
- Wandy benefits from a better home park
and now he gets to face an anemic Astros line-up a couple times.
Getting some run support should help his confidence too.
Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers -
Given the injury to Dee Gordon, I am quite surprised that the Dodgers
have not moved Hanley back to shortstop. Regardless, the new
setting should energize Ramirez after an offseason where he was
pilloried in the local media for not being a team player, despite the
fact that he was an all-star shortstop. I'd like to see how those
sportswriters would act if they were suddenly switched from the
pressbox to selling beers in the upper deck. Take one for the
team, boys! Dodger Stadium is a pretty neutral park for home runs
so Ramirez should see a tick up in his power numbers and RBI.
Winning might help his outlook as well, so I'm betting we see shades of
the 2007-2010 Hanley. Unless the LA media call him out for not
being a team player.
Nathan Eovaldi to the Marlins -
Eovaldi has a big arm and that stadium is playing friendly to
pitchers. He's still pretty young but the talent is there to be a
top of the rotation starter. The question is do the Marlins have
a pitching coach who can get him there.
Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez to the
Tigers - I think both of these guys are going to have a rude
awakening. Infante was having a ridiculous year like he had in
2004. His isolated power is way out of line with anything he's
done in six years and his other periforals have actually detiorated, so
we can believe one of two things: this is a fluke at age 30 or he has
had medical help. I am leaning toward the former and am betting
we see a big drop-off in production from the league switch.
Sanchez' numbers look much worse than previous seasons, but they're not
that different. However, the league change will keep the hurt
on.
Jacob Turner to the Marlins -
I've never been a fan of Turner's until
now. I think the trade to the National league gives him a huge
boost, both in getting out of
the AL where he faces the DH, but also getting to face relatively weak
line-ups in the Mets and Phillies.
Francisco Cordero to the Astros
- this one is already playing out badly for Cordero. He's
shown considerable deterioration from his peak which is a bad
combination with that park.
Ryan Roberts to the Rays -
Tat-man gets a change of scenery to a tougher park and
division and is coming off a year that was a bit fluky. He can
play different position which will help his playing time once Longoria
returns, but the Rays already have Sean Rodriguez and Ben Zobrist who
can do that and they are better at it.
Brett Myers to the White Sox -
He becomes the set-up man for Addison Reed.
Gaby Sanchez to the Pirates for
Gorkys Hernandez - I'm not sure I get this one, especially
since the Pirates impressed me with several of their other moves.
Sanchez isn't substantially better than Garrett Jones but I guess
they'll get them both playing time with a platoon. Gorkys
Hernandez is probably not anyone to worry about this year but he does
have speed and has the reputation of being able to cover ground in the
outfield, which may solve a long term issue with the Marlins in
centerfield.
Hunter Pence to SF for Nate
Schierholz, Tommy Joseph and Seth Rosin - There might be the
perception that this deal effectively kills Hunter Pence's value
because of San Francisco's ballpark, but actually the power numbers for
it at Citizen's Bank in Philly are fairly similar for right
handers. It's for left-handers that moving to AT&T is death,
which is why the big winner in this trade is Nate Schierholz. He
showed 20-homer power in the minors and CB Park is fantastic for
lefty-swingers. He could be a steal down the stretch this year
and in 2013.
Edward Mujica to St. Louis
for Zach Cox - Mujica has almost no chance to increase his
value, but Zach Cox just saw his go up. He is struggling with
Triple-A this season, but he's still only 23 and has some time to get
back on track. He's the near future at third base for the
Marlins.
Shane Victorino to LAD for
Josh Lindblom and Ethan Martin - Victorino returns back where it
all started, in LA. Even though he's going to a better line-up
and will thus get more opportunities to score runs, he'll also be
playing in a division that has the two toughest ballparks for hitters
in the majors and his home park will be going from favorable for hitter
to neutral. The parks in Colorado and Arizona will balance out
San Francisco and San Diego but there's still the home park to deal
with.
Craig Breslow to the Red Sox
for Matt Albers and Scott Podsednik - An exchange of relievers
with an aging speedster thrown in as sweetener. The story is that
Podesdnik will add outfield depth at Triple-A but I can't help but
think he will be used a lot as a pinch runner in September.
Brandon League to the Dodgers for Leon
Landry and Logan Bawcom - League will add soem depth to the back
of the Dodger bullpen but I only brought this one up because I like
Leon Landry as a prospect. He's a toolsy outfielder who hasn't
been able to attach skills to those tools yet. I just thought it
was a bit ironic that GM Jack Zurencik gets so much pub about being a
sabermetric thinker and then he makes the same kind of deal Jim Bowden
would have and would get pilloried for. Zurencik will probably be
lauded for outside-the-box thinking on Fangraphs.
Steve Delabar to the Blue
Jays for Eric Thames - This is another interested Mariners deal,
similar to the one that sent Brandon Morrow to the Jays in exchange for
the aforementioned Brandon League. Thames grades out as a fourth
outfielder but Delabar looks like a real comer if he can get his
gopheritis under control. I'm rooting for the former independent
leaguer.
Chris Johnson to the D-backs
for Bobby Borchering and Marc Krauss - The D-backs picked up
Chris Johnson to replace Ryan Roberts at third and should fill in
adequately for the remainder of the season. I doubt the change in
ballparks will have any impact on his production although the change in
teams will. The significant player in this deal is Borchering,
who posseses tremedous but has not figured out how to put the bat on
the ball consistently. He's still young - only 21 and playing in
Double-A - but right now he looks to me like another Pedro
Alvarez.
George Kottaras to the As
for Fautino de los Santos - Kottaras is not going to do much
better in Oakland than he did in Milwaukee, especially with Derek
Norris lurking in the wings. Norris struggled on his first
exposure to the majors but he has the ability to become an above
average catcher in the bigs. De los Santos has a big arm but no
clue where it's going. Still, his is an arm with gambling a
back-up catcher.
Francisco Liriano to the White Sox for
Eduardo Escobar and Pedro
Hernandez - I'm usually a huge fan of Terry Ryan and the way he
builds a team but this trade left me scratching my head. Since he
traded Liriano within the division and got in return an all-glove
utility infielder (at best) and a middle man, I have to believe he
thinks a) Liriano will never get back to being the dominant starter he
was in 2006 and 2010, or b) that he has completely lost his mind.
Either way, I don't think Liriano will fare very well in the hitters
heaven that is the White Sox home park. His groundball tendency
is going in the wrong direction for that and his home run rate per
flyball has been going up. Not a great combination for the best
park in the majors to hit home runs (yes, even better than Colorado).
Marco
Scutaro to the Giants for Charlie Culberson - this one is
important because I think it heralds the end of the Brandon Belt era in
San Francisco even before it had a chance to really start. Its no
secret that Giants' manager Bruce Bochy 1) loves veterans and 2) is
terrible handling youngsters. He's absolutely miserable at
developing any player under 25 who isn't an all-star from the moment
they take a major league field. Having Scutaro will allow him to
put Sandoval at first base for the remainder of the season and move
Belt to the bench in all likelihood, unless he miraculously starts to
crush the ball every night. Remember, Bochy has given away Belt's
at bats to Aubrey Huff (74 ABs for a .148 hitter) and Brett Pill (85
ABs for a .215 hitter) because he thought they were a little more
seasoned completely ignoring the fact that Belt has hit better than
both and is infinitely more skilled with the glove. Brian Sabean
will ship him off this offseason to someplace that has a greater
appreciation for his talent (I'm hoping for Texas both because that
would be a homecoming for Belt and a much better park to hit in) and
that will be that. But for now, Belt's season is essentially over.
Zach
Greinke to the Angels for Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena
- This one was big, not just because it was Greinke, but because it put
him in the AL West against whom he has a history of pitching very
well. Normally a pitcher going from the NL to the AL will take a
significant hit to his numbers but I don't think that will happen with
Greinke. For one, he's pitched in the AL before and pitched very
well and two, he'll be pitching in front of a better defense than he
did in Milwaukee. Greinke might even pitch better down the
stretch. His addition should give the Angels a very good chance
of winning the AL West.
Paul
Maholm and Russ Johnson to the Braves for Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye
Chapman - Long term I think the Cubs win this deal
handily. Vizcaino has a great arm and the Cubs braintrust will
figure a way to keep him healthy. Maholm is no great shakes but
he should provide some consistency for the Braves down the stretch
which is what they were going for. Unfortunately, I'm not
convinced that's what they need. They need a pitcher who can be
great for three or four starts before laying a stinker every once in a
while, not one who will be mediocre every start. They just don't
have the kind of offense that can consistently generate the runs Maholm
needs to win every time out and their bullpen is not as good as it was
last year. He's just not a pitcher who can win games on his own
and that is what they needed.
Geovanny
Soto to the Rangers for Jacob Brigham and designated Yorvit Torrealba
- How the mighty have fallen. Soto looked like the next Mike
Piazza a few years ago and just four years later he's batting under the
Mendiza line and getting traded for a couple of A-ball players.
Hitting in Texas will help, as will the adrenaline of playing in a
pennant race. That said, he has been incredibly unlucky with
balls in play and is due for a bounceback.
Travis
Snider to the Pirates for Brad Lincoln - I like this deal for
both teams: Lincoln has a big although as yet untamable arm, and Snider
has a bat that can play in any park once he gets a clue at the
plate. It's hard to tell if his numbers at Triple-A Las Vegas
indicate that he's finally put it all together, or if they are merely a
function of hitting in a great park. Keep a close eye on him to
see if they are the former. My guess is that they are.
Ryan Dempster to the Rangers
- Dempster has had an unbelievably good year this year, win
totals notwithstanding. But I have a hard time believing that a
middle rotation pitcher suddenly found the secret to ultimate pitching
power at the age of 35. It has happened before with guys like
Jamie Moyer and Warren Spahn, but in almost all cases those pitchers
were left-handed; Dempster is not. Regardless, we already know
why his season has been so fantastic - he has been incredibly lucky
with balls in play: a .305 career BABIP pitcher enjoying four months of
.245 BABIP. Rides like this ALWAYS end and using the old Hasbro
game "Clue" vernacular, he'll get his in Texas, with the DH by
the American League. For the Cubs end, they snagged Christian
Villanueva, who is an up and coming third baseman, albeit a few years
away.