Where are these guys?
June 16, 2017
At one time I had a
tradition that around this time of year I would post a column about players in
the minors who could be promoted and be useful for fantasy teams in search of
help. But with so many sites now offering stats and complete
catalogues of “inside scoops” about emerging players, that kind of column seems
redundant. So instead I will go in the opposite direction and talk about
two players who are getting a lot fan-driven push to be promoted but in all
likelihood will stay where they are for a while longer.
Scott Kingery
As I noted in March, I
really liked what I saw from Kingery during spring
training. When I looked at his previous minor league stats, I was very
surprised he had not produced more power. I should correct that because he had
displayed the power, just not over the wall. Still, I am glad to see that his
strong showing this spring was not a mirage. He has been killing the ball all
year and in fact led the minors in home runs for a spell. He’s not a home run
hitter, per se, but I do think he is capable of hitting 20 homers and 30-40
doubles per year at his peak once he does arrive.
So with Cesar Hernandez on
the shelf for at least another month, why haven’t the Phillies promoted the guy
who will be manning second base for them for the next decade?
A few reasons come to
mind. The first is that if they promote him it will be difficult to get
Hernandez at bats to showcase his trade value. I’m sure most front offices are
aware of what Hernandez can do but it’s always good to have recent data to
either reinforce or perhaps improve that perception. The second reason is that
the Phillies are not going anywhere in the standings this year. They have a few
pieces that will play a part when they are ready to contend, but Freddie Galvis, Cameron Rupp, Tommy Joseph and Odubel
Herrera playing everyday probably isn’t part of that equation. One or two of
them, sure, but with so many positions to fill with playoff-capable talent, there’s
just no reason to rush anyone this year. Thirdly, if they delay his debut until
next spring, they can not only delay his arbitration clock but be more assured
that he will be largely a finished product. And there are still some things he
can improve upon so it’s not exactly like he’s wasting his time in the minors
right now.
As incredible as he was in
April and May, he simply has been nowhere as good in June. He crushed the ball for an OPS in excess of 1.000 through the first two months;
in June it’s a respectable .772 but that’s a far cry from 1.000. The plus side
is that his walk rate and strikeout rates have remained largely unchanged, and
his production away from Reading (a notorious hitter’s park) is as good as it
is at home. So there’s lot’s of good still going on, and it may be that his
June slump is merely due to fatigue or just the kind of slump every payer goes
through at some point during a season. Or it could be that pitchers are
attacking him differently in which case he needs to make a counter adjustment.
Whatever it is, there’s justification for letting him continue learning at that
level.
There’s also an argument
to be made that he needs to learn these lessons at Double A, rather than at the
major league level because failure in the Show could cause a cascade effect. If
there’s only one thing he needs to work on – like laying
off breaking balls outside the zone - then he can work on it at the level he’s
familiar with. Limiting the variables is the best way to solve problems.
However, if he’s promoted and facing pitchers who are far more talented and
capable, he might begin to wonder if the problem is his grasp of the strikezone or the quality of the breaking balls or maybe
the umps just giving him a hard time because he’s a rookie, then doubts might
begin to creep in. Let him learn all he can in the minors and when he’s hitting
.340 and crushing every pitch he lays wood to and has confidence to spare, then
bring him to the Show.
Finally, and this is
becoming an increasing (and in my view, unfortunate) focus of the game is that
the Phillies would have to put him on the 40-man roster if they called him up
in order to protect him from the Rule 5 draft this winter. If they don’t bring
him up, he’s not eligible to be picked by other teams because of when he was
drafted. The delay of his MLB debut won’t be limited to just this year. We’ll
likely see him kill the ball next spring training, yet be sent down to Triple-A
for a month to delay his arbitration clock, even as the Phillies claim he needs
to “work on things”.
Amed Rosario
Like the Phillies, the
Mets have suffered an injury (actually, injuries) that would seem to make it a
foregone conclusion to bring up their uber-prospect. They have lost both Asdrubal
Cabrera and Neil Walker to injury and Jose Reyes isn’t even hitting his rookie
weight much less his current. So why not bring up Rosario who, like Kingery, has been hitting the snot out of the ball.
For one, like Kingery,
Also working against
promoting
Unlike the Phillies, the
Mets do have enough play-off caliber talent on the roster to make a play-off
run. Still, until they have fully recovered from all the injuries, they should
proceed the same way the Phillies are. They see