What We Learned Today
June 7, 2010
Although it probably doesn't seem like it since there were no games
with imminent playoff implications played and we're still almost two
months from the trading deadline, today was one of the most important
dates of this baseball season. In addition to the amateur draft
being held today - or at least the first round plus the supplemental
round with the subsequent rounds over the next two days - the first
round series of the NCAA baseball playoffs concluded leaving 16 teams
vying for the title. Oh, and they played some major league games,
too. Some might argue that tomorrow will be just as significant
with the anticipated debuts of two of the most talented players of the
last decade - Stephen Strasburg and Mike Stanton - but this is what we
learned today:
1) That the ACC is still an over-rated conference. For the first time
in their history the ACC garnered eight invitations to the big dance
and six of the 8 were either #1 or #2 seeds. Of those eight, only 3
advanced. Frankly, it would not be at all surprising if after next
weekend only one ACC team, Virginia, remained. Conversely, the
SEC, which is widely regarded as the deepest and toughest conference
but has been poopooed as over-rated this season by the experts,
particularly at Baseball America... the SEC lived up to it's claim as
the best overall conference. Of it's 8 participants, five
advanced to the next round. Last year's champ LSU was eliminated
but it wasn't exactly an upset as they faced arguably the toughest
bracket that included top 20 standout and perrenial power UC Irvine,
and the best pitching staff in college baseball in UCLA (Although Texas
has a legitmate claim to that title as well). Regardless, the SEC
represented itself well and still remains the benchmark by which all
other conferences measure themselves in baseball as well as football.
2) Scott Boras is no longer the man clubs fear. In previous years quite
a number of the best talents fell later in the draft than their talent
would merit due to signability concerns, i.e, that Boras would ask for
too much money. Not this year as four of the top seven picks are
represented by Boras. I guess teams finally realized that even
with the "exhorbitant" signing bonuses, that these amateur players both
a) represent the future of their organizations so they better pick good
ones, and b) when compared to the contributions of the average free
agent, the amateurs drafted today dwarf the value of each dollar spent
by an order of magnitude. For example, Steven Strasburg was given
a total of $15 million, a record for an amateur, for which he will
pitch for the Washington Nationals (health willing) a minimum of six
years. In all likelihood, even during his rookie year he will be
a better than average pitcher and there's a good chance he'll develop
into one of the five best in the majors by the time his arbitration
clock expires and he's eligible for free agency. Compare that to
the two-year, $15 million contract the Nationals gave Jason Marquis who
is at best a league average innings eater. So which is better:
$15 million for six years of elite performance or $15 million for two
years of average performance? And that's just the very top
picks. Players taken in the second and third rounds rarely cost
more than a few hundred thousand yet a large number become major league
players, whose average salary is $2.1 million. The answer is
pretty clear for everyone involved.
3) The Boston Red Sox had a very solid draft of college talents who
won't require much time in the minors. Bryce Bentz has power that
should play in the majors pretty quickly - perhaps by the end of Adrian
Beltre's current contract - but the steal of the draft was probably LSU
ace Anthony Ranaudo. Before this season began he was widely regarded as
the #2 pick overall (behind Harper) but he suffered a stress reaction
in his pitching elbow early this season that sidelined him for a
month. He spent the remainder of the season trying to recover his
mechanics, but his last couple of outings showed that he's almost back
to form. When he's on he has three above average pitches (including a
fastball that reaches 97) and a good feel for pitching. He's also
fairly young compared to his competition so there's a chance for some
more improvement to his natural stuff. As good a risk as Kyle
Gibson was last year with his collegiate-ending arm injury - and he has
absolutely dominated hitters in the Florida State League and has
continued his blitz in the AA Eastern League, Ranaudo represents an
even better value for next year. Hopefully he'll get signed
quickly and move toward a productive major league career.
4) The catcher of the future in Washington is Derek Norris. The
Nationals drafted uber-talent Bryce Harper as an outfielder and with
good reason. As an outfielder, he won't have to learn all the nuances
of catching at the higher levels and can just concentrate on what he
does best: hit the cover off the ball. Don't be surprised if he's
taking swings against major league pitching by September of 2012.
The sooner they get his bat to the majors - a bat that hit .443 with 31
homers (on base of .536 and slugging of .987) against junior college
competition - the better off everyone will be. What will likely happen
is that he'll sign at the August deadline (as per Boras' modus
operandi), spend the fall in Instructional league, start the 2011
season in the low-A South Atlantic League, perhaps with a promotion to
high-A Potomac by the end of the season and then begin the 2012 season
in Double A. Yes, his bat is good enough to challenge major league
pitching by the time he's 19 years old.
5) The guys to watch other than Harper:
a) I really like Jameson Taillon, whom the Pirates took with the second
overall pick. Huge upside but high school pitchers usually take three
or four years to make their major league debut. He could come a little
faster but that's still at least two years away.
b) A lot of folks are drawing comparisons to Alex Rodriguez for Manny
Machado but I don't see it other than the fact that they were both
shortstops from South Florida. He'll still be a pretty decent player
but not that much more intriguing than Tim Beckham was in 2008.
If you're keeping score at home, this is Beckham's third year in the
minors and he still hasn't reached AA.
c) The Royals surprised the pundits by taking Christian Colon, but
given the state of shortstop in that organization it should not have
been. His bat is disciplined enough to come quickly and he has enough
power to be fantasy useful. So when he signs it'll probably only
take a year or so before he makes his debut.
d) Of the other college players taken, I think Chris Sale (Chicago
White Sox) will probably be the one who makes it to the majors the
fastest. He has very good stuff, unusual mechanics which makes it
harder for hitters to pick up the ball and he's been drafted by an
organization that a) needs starting pitching and b) hasn't shied away
from promoting young players quickly. Drew Pomeranz (Cleveland)
and Deck McGuire (Toronto) are both decent arms but I didn't see
anything in them that said "superstar". Both look two, maybe
three years away from really contributing at the major league level and
even then, as #2 or #3 type starters. Michael Choice (Oakland)
and Yasmani Grandal (Cincinnati) also look like major league regulars
but at this point neither seem like perrenial all-stars. They
shouldn't take too long to make their debuts, maybe by middle of
next year, early 2012.
e) Zack Cox (St. Louis) has a good bat but doesn't really have the kind
of power to stick at third but his glove could play at second which
kinda works out because the Cards have had a revolving doors there ever
since, what... Tommy Herr? Regular playing time is there
for the taking if he can handle the defensive switch.
6) They played major league games too, didn't they... I really like the
Pat Burrell signing/promotion in San Francisco. The team was
desperate for offense, particularly over-the-wall type power and
Burrell has it. He also still has a pretty good eye at the plate
so the question is does he have the bat speed to make it play. I
think he does, especially now that he's back in his comfort zone, the
National League. I also think he'll get enough time at first base
to earn eligibility there in fantasy leagues - he's played the position
before for nearly 60 games - so he could be a really nice
addition for the second half. Aaron Rowand has looked
absolutely awful both in the field and at the plate so as long as Bochy
is comfortable with an defensive outfield of Burrell, Torres and Huff,
I think he'll go with that until the catching situation with Posey,
Whiteside and Molina sorts itself out. I expect Posey will be the
guy behind the plate most of the time by August and with that Burrell
at first base.
7) I am still not sold that Manny Corpas will keep the closer's job in
Colorado, nor do I think Huston Street will ever get healthy enough
this season to reclaim the job. It might happen, but Street has
proven to be easily breakable and even if he comes back this month I
don't see him staying healthy the rest of the season. And Corpas
is beginning to look a lot like the wild Corpas of old. The
pitcher I would target for saves in the second half of this season is
Matt Belisle, who has very quietly posted outstanding numbers. To
whit: in 25 appearances, he has allowed a run to score in only five of
them and two of those were stints of at least 2.1 innings. He has
allowed only 2 runs since April 28 and in his last 22+ innings has
walked only one batter while striking out 27. Those numbers are
the numbers of a closer.