Is It Possible?
May 30, 2011


I'm sitting here at the end of May staring at the standings in the XFL... frankly, I'm a little dismayed as to where my squad is ranked:

I knew before the season began it was not going to be easy but this is ridiculous.  Of course, my cause hasn't been helped by the fact that for most of the first two months of this season, I've had nearly half my team's salary on the DL.  Early on, I actually did have more salary on the DL than I had active, and I'm still pretty close to having equal amounts of salary injured and healthy.  It's pretty hard to win when half your money is disabled.  Still, I'm optimistic that I can salvage this.  I know what you're probably saying right now... "Trace is delusional."  Yeah, I get that a lot.  In fact, it was said about me most famously in a best-selling book.  And perhaps that is why I am still thinking this isn't over, despite the fact I seem to be buried in the standings at the one-third point of the season.

Only now are we getting large enough samples to appraise what is really going on this season.  We're still early enough that the effects from fast and slow starts haven't completely worn off.  If players have been on the DL or just getting called up or changing roles, the samples are still way too small to draw conclusions with any certainty.  That's why I think anyone who tells you "this is what your team is" at this point of the season doesn't know what they are talking about.  Not one whit.  Why should anyone believe that the first third is any more influential on the final outcome than the second or final third of the season.  It isn't.  Yes, generally it's preferrable to get out to a fast start, but often times a fast start will lead to just as many errors in judgement as a slow one. 

My point is that you never know if a lead is too large until you challenge it.  Looking at the standings right now tells you little or nothing about where you'll finish.  

To understand what your team needs, you have to understand what happened to get them to this point.  If all your pitchers have been unlucky with regard to balls in play or home runs allowed, then that is probably the reason your team is down near the bottom in ERA.  It isn't because they suddenly stink.  Likewise, if you have guys on pace for 30 homers whose previous high was 6, then you probably should start planning on dealing those guys for some true power hitters if you're going to stay on top in those categories.

In my case, injuries have been a big part of the problem.  Ryan Zimmerman, Joe Mauer, Chase Utley, Mike Stanton, Derrek Lee, Philip Hughes, Chris Young (the pitcher), Brian Wilson and Rafael Soriano have all spent time on the DL.  Even one of my replacements, Mike Fontenot is now on the DL.  At some point over the next few weeks, with the exception of Soriano and Young, I will have all of those guys back and fully healthy.  Here's how the line-up will be affected:

Mike Fontenot has already been replaced by Chase Utley
Andy LaRoche will be replaced by Ryan Zimmerman
JR Towles will be replaced by Joe Mauer
Derrek Lee will move Brandon Belt to the utility spot where he'll probably get the majority of playing time (assuming Bruce Bochy rejoins us on Earth) over Rick Ankiel and Pat Burrell.

Speaking of Bochy, why on earth would a team promote a player hitting .350/.900+ OPS in Triple-A and not play him over a guy who is no help offensively or defensively?  Aubrey Huff had a big year last year and in 2008 but other than those two years his bat has been subpar since 2004.  This year he's posted an OPS of .626.  There are 23 shortstops in the majors who are producing a higher OPS.  No catcher who qualifies for the batting title has a lower OPS than Huff's.  Those are two of the weakest positions offensively and Huff would grade poorly even if he had the glove to handle them.  Currently he ranks 29th amongst first baseman and the only one who is worse among regulars is recovering from a severe concussion.  Belt is a much better gloveman at first and neither player is going to be average in left field, where far fewer plays are made than at first base.  The Giants are a better team defensively with Belt at first and they are a better team offensively with Belt in the everyday line-up.  There really isn't any logical reason for Belt not to be manning first and playing every day, not if the Giants have any desire to make the post-season this year.  But I digress...

With those four upgrades on offense, making up ground in the hitting categories shouldn't be that difficult.  The fact of the matter is that even with all the injuries, this team hasn't lost much if any ground on the leaders in homers, RBI, runs, wins, saves and strikeouts over the last month.  Only in stolen bases have they fallen off the pace and that was a concern from the outset anyway. 

Every year by the time August rolls around in the XFL, there have usually been a flurry of blockbuster trades that end up creating between three and five super teams who will compete for the title over the final two months.  That point is still two months away and no team is in such great shape personnel-wise right now as to pull away from the rest of the pack.  There simply are no super teams yet.  So making up ground is quite possible over the next two months assuming my squad has gotten past the injury bug. 

No doubt you still think I'm crazy and I might agree with you if I had never come back from a huge deficit in a season before in an expert league.   But the fact is I have... twice.

In 2004 in AL Tout Wars, my team had been similarly wracked by injuries and subpar performances through the first two months of the season.  Although they don't seem like big names now, back then losing Brian Jordan, Scott Spiezio, Jerry Hairston, Rafael Soriano, Jon Lieber, Omar Infante and Benito Santiago was a pretty significant blow.  That and having the ace of my pitching staff, Johan Santana, exploding with an ERA over 5.  After the first week in May, my team was in 11th place, 57.5 points out of first in a league where the winner usually finishes with between 90 and 100 points.  By the end of May my team was still only in 9th place, 36 points out of first place.  But by the first of September they were in first and they pretty much coasted to the win   In just four months they made up nearly 60 points.  True, it's easier to make up big chunks of ground in an AL-only or an NL-only league but that's not to say it can't be done in a mixed league, too.

It was a similar story in 2006.  The first place team in AL Tout was 29 points ahead on July 15, and 25 points ahead on August 1.  My squad caught up by mid-September and for the last few weeks we traded places atop the standings until the final day when it was my turn in the lead.  Had the season lasted another 4 innings (a rain-shortened game between the Orioles and Red Sox decided the final standings), the result quite probably would have been different.  Nevertheless, in just over a month my team made up 25 points in the standings and that was after two thirds of the season had already played out. 

Even last year in XFL, Don Drooker's team languished near the bottom of the standings through May, yet without any significant trades thrust itself into the title picture by mid-August.  Talent is talent and more often than not it doesn't just go away or appear suddenly.  The players you thought would get you close to your goal of winning your league will likely do just that if given the chance.

Looking at the XFL and the players I should have going forward, I feel pretty confident that they'll be moving up the board on offense, particularly in on base and RBI.  I still need some team speed so that might be something I can acquire off waivers but other than that, health-willing this looks like it will be a pretty good offense once all the pistons are firing.

The pitching, however... now that will be an obstacle, especially if Ricky Nolasco and Jason Hammel continue to throw batting practices.   Between those two, Colby Lewis, Tim Stauffer, Edwin Jackson and Paul Maholm, I don't have anyone I can count on to get strikeouts or good performances consistently.  At least not yet.  Maybe one or more will emerge but none appear to be on the verge of a huge breakout.  Better luck will help, obviously, but without an ace to provide ballast, this team seems destined to finish in the middle of the pack in pitching.  And to win this league, average pitching won't come remotely close to getting the job done.  I might be able to pick up a closer off waivers to help in the saves category as well as a little in ERA and WHIP, but Ks and wins will be a lost cause without a trade.  And given that closers can be had for less than $10 at the November auction draft, they don't have much keeper appeal in trade making it unlikely that would be enough to swing a starting ace. 

The question now is this: who thinks this season is already over?  If I can find a trading partner with an ace who is looking at next year already, a run for the title might still be possible for me.