Help Is On The Way, 8th edition.
May 26, 2010
Unless you haven't been following baseball for the last two years, you
already know that Stephen Strasburg is the next big thing in young
pitching. The hype-machine has been in overdrive as his major
league debut approaches, but unlike many other uber-prospects there is
a great deal of substance behind all the breathiness. Once he is
called up, I expect he'll have an even greater impact on his team's
fortunes, both real and fantasy, that Tommy Hanson had last year.
But the Nationals aren't the only team that has pitching prospects that
can help their team this year. So without further adieu, here are
the minor league pitchers who have caught my eye so far this season.
Name
Team W L ERA G GS CG
SV IP H R ER HR HB BB SO WHIP
Rudy Owens
ALT 3 2 3.35 8 8 0 0 45.2 39 18 17
3 2 8 43 1.03
Matt Klinker
CAR 4 3 1.63
9 9 0 0 55.1 43 13 10 1 5 11
53 0.98
Daryl Thompson
CAR 0 2 3.44 7
7 0 0 34.0 21 13 13 2 0 7 38
0.82
Jordan Lyles
CC 4 3
3.00 9 9 1 0 57.0 49 20 19 4
3 13 47 1.09
Douglas Arguello
CC 5 3 2.45 9 9
2 0 58.2 50 18 16 0 3 13 49 1.07
Carlos Hernandez
DUR 3 2 2.31 9 9
0 0 46.2 40 21 12 4 3 19 40 1.26
Jeremy Hellickson
DUR 7 2 2.79 10 10 0 0
58.0 53 19 18 2 4 12 60 1.12
Blake Beavan
FRI 6 2 2.88
9 9 0 0 56.1 43 18 18 3 1
9 37 0.92
Thomas Diamond
IOW 3 1 2.01 9
9 0 0 49.1 35 13 11 5 1 19 45 1.09
Alejandro Sanabia
JAX 5 0 1.72 9 9 0
0 57.2 40 13 11 1 2 11 49 0.88
Travis Wood
LOU 2 4
4.15 9 9 0 0 56.1 53 30 26 7
2 17 57 1.24
Matt Maloney
LOU 4 1 2.72
8 8 0 0 39.2 33 13 12 2 2
8 43 1.03
Mike Minor
MIS 1 3 3.44 9 9 0 0 49.2 37 26 19
4 1 24 72 1.23
Barry Enright
MOB 2 1 2.96 8
8 1 0 51.2 44 20 17 3 1 10 40 1.05
Simon Castro
SA 3 1
1.75 9 8 0 0 51.1 34 17 10 3
2 15 41 0.95
Andrew Cashner
TNS 3 1 2.75 6
6 1 0 36.0 22 12 11 1 0 13 42 0.97
Michael Pineda
WTN 3 1 2.23 8
8 0 0 44.1 40 12 11 1 2 11 54 1.15
Dan
Hudson
CHA 5 2 4.47 9 9 0 0
48.1 50 28 24 7 2 14 59 1.32
The Pirates won't be contending for the division this year, but they
may take a look at their future sometime before the end of the
season... more sooner than later if Charlie Morton and Daniel
McCutcheon continue to pitch batting practice. Rudy Owens is not
particularly young for his level, nor is he overpowering but he's
putting together a nice run that should get him a look before
September. Morton might be better suited to the bullpen anyway
with his power stuff. Think of Owens as Zach Duke 2.0.
Aroldis Chapman has garnered most of the attention in the Reds' minor
league system, but there are four other pitchers who might make the
majors before he does. Matt Klinker and Daryl Thompson grade out
more toward the organizational pitcher mold than true prospects, but
both are having excellent seasons in AA and might get a look. The
plus side is that both of them have outgrown the concern that Dusty
might overwork their arms. In AAA, Travis Wood and Matt Maloney
have been on the prospect radar for some time and are pitching well
enough to get the call to the Reds' rotation should GM Walt Jocketty
deal Harang or Arroyo for prospects. Neither is overpowering but
both could develop into quality left-handed middle-of-the rotation
starters.
I still find it hard to believe that Jordan Lyles is still only
19-years old, which means there's still a possibility that his velocity
could improve. For a 19-year old to be pitching this well in the
hitter friendly Texas League... well, it doesn't take a genius to guess
who will get a call-up in pitching desperate Houston. Or at least
who should get the call-up. That Baseball America had him ranked
behind Jason Castro and Jiovanni Mier only shows that even the best
prospect evaluators miss badly on occasion. He's got three above
average pitches and clean mechanics. In short, he's Roy Oswalt
only bigger (about 6' 4").
Douglas Arguello is a little old for the level but what caught my eye
was the number under the "HR" category... 0, as in zero home runs
allowed this season. He's definitely worth keeping an eye
on if he can continue this sucess.
If Carlos Hernandez' name sounds familiar, it's probably because he was
a top pitching prospect with Houston a few years ago. Arm
troubles set his career back but he appeared to be back in top form
this spring with his new team, the Tampa Bay Rays. Only one
problem: the Rays have a pretty solid young rotation already. I'm
not convinced Wade Davis is the answer so Herhandez might get another
shot this year if Tampa's other uber-arm is not ready for the
show. Hernandez still might get a break if the Rays deal
him for some help with the big club. But as it stands now, the
guy who will get the call is Jeremy Hellickson. He's not
overpowering, but neither is he a soft-tosser. He's got the
stuff to be a solid #2 for most rotations. Command was an issue
earlier in his career - it's not that he wasn't throwing strikes, but
that the strikes he was throwing were too fat - but he seems to be
coming to terms with that bugaboo.
The Texas Rangers have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to
young arms. Neftali Feliz and Derrek Holland are already in the
majors but in AA they have two very promising arms who should be
contributing no later than next year: Martin Perez and Blake
Beavan. Coming into this season, Perez was regarded as one of the
two or three most talented lefties in the minors. The 19-year old
has his hands full at the moment with AA hitters, but his teammate
Beavan seems to be cruising right along. Beavan's stuff is a tick
above average but as you can see control is a strength.
Thomas Diamond began his career with the Rangers but now finds himself
in the Cubs organization. The road to the big league rotation
might be a little jammed this year, but he was a closer in college and
might find his way to the big club as a reliever. He has the
power stuff to set-up or close if given the chance.
If you were to ask me which organization is the best at developing
young pitchers, the Florida Marlins would certainly be in the
discussion. They have one more in the pipeline in AA, 21-year old
Alejandro Sanabia. His performance before this season had
not been remarkable, but this year he seems to be putting it all
together. If the Marlins decide to pull the plug on the Nate
Robertson experiment, Sanabia might be the guy who gets the call.
It's amazing what an extra 2 or 3 miles per hour on a fastball will do
for a guy. Mike Minor was throwing in the high 80s last year and
got cuffed around in the Arizona Fall league as a result. This
spring, however, he's been throwing in the low 90s and suddenly he
looks like Tommy Hanson, part deaux. He was considered a big
overdraft when the Braves took him at #7 last
year but it's looking more like that was just about where he
deserved to be taken. The Braves rotation hasn't been as solid as
many anticipated so they might call on Minor for a boost if they can't
figure out how to fix Kawakami, Lowe and Jurrjens.
The Diamondbacks are another team that has had disappointing results
with their pitching. Barry Enright is a little older than most
players who are still considered prospects at AA, but he's proved to be
a durable workhorse in his last two years and should make a serviceable
innings eater if the D-backs give him the opportunity. He's a
pitch to contact pitcher so his success will depend on the defense
behind him.
There has been some discussion as to whether Simon Castro would make a
better starter or closer, but at this point there's really no need to
move him out of the rotation. He has two plus pitches - fastball
and slider - and what will determine his success as a starter is the
continued development of his change. If he can make it at least a
respectable pitch, he profiles as a #2 starter and would give the
Padres an intimidating young tandem with Mat Latos. If not, his
fastball and slider are good enough to make him a top flight closer.
Andrew Cashner is another pitching prospect who's merited considerable
buzz. He's drawn comparisons to Kerry Wood both for his size and
his stuff, but I'm not sure the comparison is valid. He's much
older than Wood was at this point in his career, largely because Wood
was drafted out of high school whereas Cashner was a collegiate pitcher
at TCU. But neither does Cashner have Wood's gaudy strikeout
numbers in the minors so his stuff appears to be just a tick below
Wood's. He hasn't pitched a lot of professional innings in part
due to injuries but thankfully last year's was due to a strained lat
and not any arm or shoulder troubles. He's doing fine at this
level as a starter but many feel he'll end up in the bullpen, just like
Wood
I know that Dustin Ackley has gotten all the press in the Seattle
system, but Michael Pineda is probably their best prospect. I'll
admit, I was never much of a believer in Ackley esepcially after
watching him in the Arizona Fall League, but I don't want to take
anything away from Pineda. He's a big guy with good velocity,
movement and command of three pitches - fastball, slider and change -
and a good feel for pitching. The only thing holding him back is
his elbow, which has had bouts of soreness in the past. So far
(fingers crossed) he's been healthy this year and if his elbow holds up
he should merit at least a cup of coffee with the Mariners this
year.
I saved Dan Hudson for last because his numbers in AAA belie a very
promising starting pitcher. He has struck out at least 8 batters
in a game four times despite the fact that his starts don't usually go
longer than 6 innings. And while sometimes gaudy minor league
strikeout numbers are due to polish or an exploit pitch, Hudson has the
legitimate dominating stuff be a strikeout pitcher in the majors.
There were outings this spring where he looked like the White Sox best
pitcher but then he would follow that up with a real clunker.
That
pattern has continued with a mediocre start followed by a dominating
shut-out. Remove his worst start by far - a one inning outing
against Columbus where he surrendered 9 earned runs - and his ERA
(2.85) would look much more in line with his ability. But
physical ability isn't what's keeping him down. As noted before
consistency is, and that is usually due to a lack of focus. If
and when he masters the mental aspect of the game, he should have an
immediate impact in the majors. Until then, buyer beware.