Thou Shalt be Saved

April 4, 2015

Just as Judah Ben-Hur tells his quartet of Arabians that the race is not won the first time around the circus track, no one wins their fantasy league on draft day. Even the greatest draft ever has to be followed up with a good reserve list and smart in-season management. The race, as the great charioteer concludes, is won the last time around. So even though my XFL team had some pretty significant needs after the November draft, I was still somewhat optimistic that it could be very competitive with a good reserve draft.

However, my task was complicated by the fact that my third, fourth and sixth round picks in the draft were held by other teams as I had traded them away in a futile attempt to win last year. With Yu Darvish going down for at least this season, plus the fact that I only had five starters going in before that unfortunate occurrence, I desperately needed to roster some starting pitching. Anthony Rendon’s injury also meant that I would need to focus on finding players who are eligible to play either third base or second base. All this with only three of the first 90 picks. Not easy.

As with any complex problem it’s often best to break things down mathematically. Using my starting pitching conundrum as an example, winning teams over the past few years have accumulated about 1400 strikeouts. Going in I had Stephen Strasburg, Derek Holland, Drew Hutchison and Taijuan Walker. I don’t think it’s too much to expect that they will total about 760 strikeouts, which means I still need 640. I have two solid closers (Betances and Papelbon) who will probably be good for 140 combined. That leaves roughly 500 more needed between three starting pitchers. That’s about 170 apiece. So rather than try to somehow find three ace-level starters from a group of pitchers who weren’t thought of highly enough to be taken in November, I just need several solid guys who have a chance to post respectable ERA and WHIP, and perhaps play for good teams that will support them well enough to get some wins. Translated: I don’t have to use my first three picks to take starting pitchers. I can probably find decent options as late as the 7^th or 8^th rounds. And with that realization, already the pressure was easing.

So here’re the guys I ended up rostering and my reasons for taking them:

Of the starting pitchers who threw at least 20 innings in 2014, Carlos Martinez ranked 8^th in swinging strike percentage and 4^th overall in zone contact. All that means is that batters swing and miss an awful lot against him, even when he throws his pitches in the strike zone. When baseball people talk about a pitcher having great “stuff”, this is the statistical proof. Martinez also has the benefit of pitching to one of the best defensive catchers in the game, and pitching for a team that is almost always in contention. Much has been written this off-season about his potential and the Cardinals are going to give him his shot to realize it at the back end of their rotation. And if motivation is any factor, one of this best friends on the team, Oscar Tavares, died tragically last fall, which moved Martinez to re-dedicate himself to his craft in Tavares’ honor. This year is his best opportunity yet to make the leap from enormous potential to performance.

Jung-Ho Kang came to the US with high expectations after posting some astounding numbers in Korea. Other than his first game of spring training, his performance so far has been pretty disappointing. But since GM Neal Huntington announced that the Pirates plan to carry him on the Opening Day roster regardless of what his spring numbers look like, Kang has been hitting like the scouts who sold Pittsburgh on his potential thought he would. Over the last week he’s hit .353 (6-for-17) with four of those hits going for extra bases. The Pirates are pretty set at the positions he plays but he should get enough playing time as a utility player to make his above average power pay dividends.

Among the Padres’ myriad moves this winter, acquiring Will Middlebrooks from the Red Sox might end up being the most crucial. Their outfield additions got most of the press, but adding Middlebrooks makes the lineup more than just a three-hitter threat that can be pitched around. The last two seasons have not been kind to him with assorted injuries bogging down his progress. However, his right-handed power was intriguing enough to get another chance at a full-time job. This spring he’s displayed an improved eye for balls and strikes which bodes well for a rebound. He doesn’t have much competition for the job so even if he gets off to a slow start there’s a good chance he’ll be allowed to work through it. That means regular at bats which will be key to accumulating the counting stats like runs and RBI.

The Cleveland Indians have some very high upside starters who have garnered quite a bit of acclaim this winter. Carlos Carrasco was one of the hottest pitching commodities this winter in fantasy circles, Trevor Bauer is hailed as a future ace, and oh, Corey Kluber just won the AL Cy Young Award. Even TJ House has been getting a lot of fanalytic attention. With so much attention elsewhere, Zach McAllister fell under the radar for a lot of people. I liked him because his strikeout rate, walk rate and groundball rate all improved last year, and even though his ERA was a fairly hideous 5.23, if one looks only at the things he controls his ERA should have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.50. The discrepancy is largely due to his strand rate, the base runners the Cleveland bullpen failed to strand. McCallister’s was 5^th worst in baseball at 59.5%, while major league average is around 75%. This is something that tends to regress to the mean which bodes well for an ERA that is more reflective of his performance. He’s also at an age (27) at which many players either make a significant leap forward or peak.

Like McAllsiter, Wade Miley’s topical numbers (ERA, WHIP) belied a worse season than his peripheral stats indicated. He continued a strong groundball tendency while significantly improving his strikeout rate. His problem last year wasn’t the bullpen, but simply bad luck on balls in play. That too tends to regress to the mean. And even though he’s moving from the NL to the longer line-ups in the AL, he’s also moving to a park that is a little more favorable for pitchers. Ironically enough, three of the four ballparks where he’s enjoyed his greatest success are in the AL (Tampa, Texas and Kansas City).

It wasn’t until Rickie Weeks relented on his demand that he play only second base that he was offered a contract this winter. That decision probably saved his career. Now with Seattle, he’ll get a chance to show whether his second half last season (.302/.444/.538) was just a hot streak or a return to the kind of hitter he was from 2010 to 2012. The last two seasons he’s had trouble staying healthy but the primary reason he lost the second base job in Milwaukee was substandard defensive play. Now his defense won’t be as much of a factor as his playing time will be determined almost solely by his bat. He could see time both in the outfield and first base, giving him fantasy eligibility at three positions. The Mariners are also a bit desperate for right-handed hitting so he’ll get plenty of opportunities to prove he’s back.

I don’t have any suspicion that Hector Rondon will be unable to handle the closer’s job for the Cubs. But should he falter, Pedro Strop should be first in line to replace him. Even if he doesn’t register a save, Strop’s strikeouts, WHIP and ERA should make him a valuable piece on any fantasy staff.

Of the Japanese players who are not currently in the majors, Shohei Otani is generally regarded as the best. Not only is he a starting pitcher with a 101 mph fastball, but he also clubbed 10 homers as a part-time outfielder last year for the Nippon Ham Fighters. He’s viewed as a young Yu Darvish on the mound due to his similar size and repertoire. He even wears the same number Darvish did. But the additional threat of his bat should make him especially intriguing to National League teams. He made it known from the outset of his career that he intended to pitch in the majors, even threatening to bypass the Japanese Leagues altogether. As to when he’ll finally get his chance to play in America is anyone’s guess as the transfer agreements between the Majors and the Japanese Leagues seem to change yearly.

I really like Manuel Margot. This is what I wrote about him in my Top 50 prospects article: “Margot is farther down most lists largely because he’s had so little minor league experience. But he was one of five players in the entire minors to produce a 10-homer, 40-steal season last year and over .300 for the year with excellent plate discipline. He’s not just a potential lead-off hitter, but a potentially great lead-off hitter. Even those who aren’t as high on him admit that his floor is as a major league fourth outfielder due his excellent defense alone. He’s probably not going to develop above average power but the rest of his game is all plus.” The Red Sox are loaded at center field right now so I expect he’ll be plying his trade for another team when he reaches the majors, possibly as soon as next year.

Rafael Devers is another Red Sox prospect I really like. To quote me again: “What Devers does bring and figures to bring more of as he matures is plus power to all fields and a reasonably advanced understanding at the plate. His potential with the bat virtually assures he’ll be in the majors one day and probably as a middle-of-the-order hitter.” Pablo Sandoval is signed through 2019 but I doubt that will provide any impediment should Devers prove his bat is ready before that contract expires. Neither player is assured of being a fixture at third and Devers has the kind of physical tools that will play at any of the corner positions.

In theory, taking a top pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery is not a bad idea. He’ll occupy a roster spot for a year and then you’ll have a high quality arm for less than half the price he would normally go for. But taking a pitcher coming back from a second Tommy John surgery is a different matter. Whereas a first recipient can recover and be pitching again in meaningful games in as little as 12 months and be back to full strength in 18, a pitcher coming back from a second procedure can expect to be out up to 18 months and not be at full strength for another 6 months after that. Jarrod Parker underwent the reconstructive procedure for the second time in his career last spring, which means he probably won’t be fully back until next spring. For all intents and purposes, this was a brain cramp pick. I would have been much better off taking a third catcher or an outfielder or a reliever or just about anyone else. But perhaps Parker will prove me wrong and set a new standard for recovery.

Randall Delgado was one of the top 50 prospects in baseball in 2011 and 2012, profiling as a potential #2 starter, but in his first three years as a starter he failed to find his groove. Last year was the first year that he was used primarily out of the bullpen and something clicked, particularly in the second half. That maturation continued this spring. Even though he’ll begin the season as the Diamondbacks long man he has a decent chance of getting another shot at the rotation should one of the starters falter. Even if he remains in the pen, he should accumulate enough strikeouts and quality innings to be useful.

Few players fell as fast and as far as Dan Uggla had over the last two years. It turns out that he had been playing for at least a year through an undiagnosed concussion. Initially he thought that his vision was deteriorating so he had Lasik surgery. But then he discovered that his vision was clear only when he was motionless. It was then the thinking changed and that something else was wrong. Now it appears that he is completely healed from the head injury, except now he also has the best vision of his life. He enjoyed the most productive spring of his career this March, posting more walks than strikeouts for the first time in his professional career. He’s competing with Yunel Escobar and Danny Espinosa for playing time at second base but if he really is completely healthy, neither should provide much of a hurdle.

Jose Abreu made a huge splash last year, as did Yoennis Cespedes in his first season with the A’s. So the prospect of another power hitter from Cuba possibly coming to MLB is intriguing to say the least. Alfredo Despaigne is currently under contract to play in Japan for this season and next but after that he may decide to make the move to the US. Most of the Cuban invasion has been comprised of very young players, like Yasiel Puig, Yoan Moncada and Jose Fernandez, for which there is very little or no performance record from Cuba, or what there is occurred at such a young age that the data isn’t very useful or predictive. But with Despaigne, Abreu and Cespedes, there are a few years from which we can analyze and draw some conclusions. In Despaigne we see a player with nearly as much raw power as Abreu and a bat that is only slightly less accomplished. His production falls between that of Cespedes and Abreu, albeit a little closer to Abreu’s level. Despaigne will likely be 30 years old when/if he makes his major league debut. While that’s not ideal, it still puts him in his peak plateau years with at least three seasons before the decline phase of his career. In a keeper league, waiting two years for a player to produce is commonplace; only with a minor league prospect there’s no guarantee the peak production will occur in his first season. In fact, history shows that there’s probably only about a 20% chance that it will. With a fully developed player coming from another country, that peak production will start from the outset.

Year	Age	AgeDif	Tm	Lg	Lev	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB
2008	22	-3.3	Granma	CNS	Fgn	90	405	328	73	123	25	2	32	97	16	6	61	45	0.375	0.481	0.756	1.238	248	8	11	0	5	15
2009	23	-2.3	Granma	CNS	Fgn	87	376	317	79	128	37	0	31	97	7	3	40	34	0.404	0.489	0.814	1.303	258	8	16	0	3	11
2010	24	-1.8	Granma	CNS	Fgn	67	303	261	56	93	7	0	27	74	1	2	33	42	0.356	0.439	0.693	1.132	181	10	7	0	2	6
2011	25	-1.2	Granma	CNS	Fgn	95	447	344	87	112	19	0	36	105	4	2	91	47	0.326	0.479	0.695	1.174	239	15	11	0	1	27
Average			A. Despaigne			85	383	313	74	114	22	1	32	93	7	3	56	42	0.365	0.474	0.741	1.215	232	10	11	0	3	15
2009	22	-3.3	Cienfuegos	CNS	Fgn	89	393	286	82	114	25	3	30	76	2	1	74	49	0.399	0.555	0.822	1.376	235	11	30	0	3	32
2010	23	-2.8	Cienfuegos	CNS	Fgn	66	293	212	79	96	14	0	33	93	2	1	58	32	0.453	0.597	0.986	1.583	209	5	21	0	2	21
2011	24	-2.2	Cienfuegos	CNS	Fgn	87	384	282	71	111	18	1	35	99	1	0	75	40	0.394	0.542	0.837	1.379	236	9	22	0	5	33
2012	25	-1.4	Cienfuegos	CNS	Fgn	77	337	264	60	91	15	0	19	60	2	5	54	39	0.345	0.481	0.617	1.098	163	18	17	0	2	19
Average			J. Abreu			80	352	261	73	103	18	1	29	82	2	2	65	40	0.395	0.542	0.807	1.350	211	11	23	0	3	26
2008	22	-3.3	Granma	CNS	Fgn	85	387	328	83	106	19	0	24	76	4	4	43	40	0.323	0.411	0.601	1.011	197	15	10	0	6	2
2009	23	-2.3	Granma	CNS	Fgn	87	392	342	87	118	19	4	22	67	5	3	42	45	0.345	0.426	0.617	1.043	211	10	7	0	1	4
2010	24	-1.8	Granma	CNS	Fgn	90	415	354	89	118	17	1	33	99	11	3	49	40	0.333	0.424	0.667	1.091	236	17	9	0	3	5
Average			Y. Cespedes			87	398	341	86	114	18	2	26	81	7	3	45	42	0.334	0.420	0.629	1.049	215	14	9	0	3	4

Other than the Parker pick, which still has a remote chance to prove fruitful, I didn’t roster any players that I didn’t want or didn’t have some degree of confidence in their ability to produce. All in all I would say I achieved what I needed to in the supplemental draft and have at least given myself a chance to be competitive. We’ll know for sure on the final lap.