Spring Numbers


I hope you'll bear with me for a little rant before I begin this week's column, but there's something I just have to say: the Twins will never win a World Series as long as Ron Gardenhire is their manager.  He is incapable of making the most obvious decisions and his team pays the price.  For example, last year in the ALDS, he had Jesse Crain waiting in the bullpen in Game 2 but elected to stay with Joe Nathan for a third inning.  Nathan tired badly, surrendered three baserunners and the go ahead run and it cost the team a 2-0 lead in the series.  Even more obvious was who to select for the Opening Day start this season.  Johan Santana posted the greatest second half in history last year and it's hardly debatable.  No one in history has ever gone 13-0 in the second half, only Pedro Martinez and Bob Gibson have ever posted a WHIP of 0.7113 over any half of any season (minimum 100 innings pitched) and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone - relievers included - to post a 0.45 ERA in September to clinch a pennant race.  Yet that's what Santana did last year.  So you'd think the honor of the Opening Day start would be a no-brainer: give it to the guy who won the Cy Young award unanimously and pitched one of the greatest seasons in history.  But then, you wouldn't be Ron Gardenhire.  Instead, the honor went to Brad Radke.  I'm just wondering what Santana - who had to wait until Joe Mays posted an ERA over 7.00 to even get a chance to start in the Twins rotation in 2003 - has to do to get some respect... break the home run record, too? 

Enough with the ranting.  I wanted to bring up a topic that seems to come up a lot this time of year, but rarely gets any resolution: the value of spring training numbers.  For hitters, I've yet to find any correlation between spring excellence and regular season success, but the same is not true for pitchers.  A couple of years ago I took a look at the relationship between spring training strikeout leaders and pitchers who did well during the regular season.  I found something interesting...

"I thought I might throw in something else. Here’s listing of the top 10 in spring strikeouts in each of the last 3 years, plus this spring.

1999 Pitcher	Ks	2000 pitcher	Ks	2001 Pitcher	Ks	2002 Pitcher	Ks
P Martinez	32	J Lima	25	O Dotel	38	R Oswalt	36
F Garcia	29	BH Kim	24	C Schilling	33	R Johnson	35
O Hernandez	28	B Colon	22	Ra Ortiz	30	AJ Burnett	32
F Cordova	27	J Nelson	21	R Johnson	28	Ra Ortiz	30
J Haynes	27	K Brown	21	C Park	27	R Clemens	25
C Schilling	27	C Finley	20	K Wells	26	C Schilling	24
S Hitchcock	24	G Heredia	20	J Vazquez	26	JC Romero	23
S Avery	24	C Pavano	20	T Hudson	26	L Hernandez	23
O Perez	24	D Neagle	19	R Clemens	25	D Baez	21
B Witt	23	R Rupe	19	P Martinez	24	P Martinez	21
Others: K Tapani C Park An Benes B Wagner J Moyer J Burkett M Mussina B Colon	23 22 22 22 21 21 20 20	Others: E Milton K Millwood R Johnson J Nathan Ru Ortiz M Clement	18 18 18 18 18 18	Others: F Castillo  O Perez  W Roberts K Appier A Ashby Ru Ortiz J Lieber J Bere	24 24 23 23 22 22 22 22	Others: J Mays R Rupe S Eyre S Karsay B Zito E Hiljus J Kennedy Ru Ortiz	21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20

I’m not sure it tells us anything definitively, except that the guys who lead the spring in strikeouts are generally pretty good pitchers.  However, I couldn’t help but notice guys like Bere and Dotel on last year’s list (2001) along with Appier (who was coming off one of his worst years) went on to post one of his best. The year before, Gil Heredia presaged his first 15 win season with a good strikeout spring, Chuck Finley had his best year since his days as a California Angel and Bartolo Colon broke 200 Ks for the first time in his career.  In 1999, Pedro went nuts on the spring batters before going nuts on everyone in the AL, El Duque had his biggest season, Freddie Garcia stormed onto the scene and Sterling Hitchcock struck out 194 batters."

In 2003, I identified Esteban Loaiza and Sidney Ponson as breakout candidates using this same method.  Last year, I refined my search to include spring home run rate.  In doing so, I singled out Doug Davis as a solid $1 buy that should turn a profit.  While he wasn't close to being as spectacular as Loaiza was in 2003, he ended up a $16 pitcher in 5x5 NL only leagues.  Granted, no method of prediction is 100% accurate, but when you are rolling the dice on starting pitchers in the end game of an auction or scouring the waiver wire in the first few weeks of the season, any potential edge is valuable.  So without further adieu, here are the guys who look like winners this year:

Rich Harden led all pitchers in strikeouts this spring.  If his second half from last year is any indication (3.49 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) he could be among this year's Cy Young finalists.  This spring was just confirmation.  Those who have been waiting for Josh Beckett (4th overall this spring) to realize his enormous potential, your wait should be ending this year.  Beckett was practically unscored upon this spring (3 runs in 27.2 innings), allowed no home runs (he allowed 3 in 30 innings last spring) and the Marlins' offense is improved.  Gil Meche (5th overall) looks like this year's big rebound candidate.  Over the past two years he's had trouble with the long ball despite pitching in a tough park to hit them in, yet this spring he didn't allow any in nearly 20 innings.  The big question mark is whether or not he can stay healthy but an improved Seattle offense and defense gives him plenty more win potential.

Some guys who could be very nice low-cost bargains are Cris Capuano (MIL), John Patterson (WAS), Horacio Ramirez (ATL) , Erik Bedard (BAL), Daniel Cabrera (BAL) and Rob Bell (TB). 

Capuano (6th overall) posted strong strikeout rates last year, but was victimized by gopheritis.  This spring, he didn't allow a single home run despite pitching in a park where the ball carries well.  Patterson (11th in the NL this spring) posted strong strikeout rates last year, is moving to a good pitcher's park and the only thing standing in his way of a permanent spot in the rotation is the health of Tony Armas and/or the effectiveness of Tomo Ohka.  Armas has already obliged him with a stint on the DL.  If Patterson gets out of the gate the way he did last year (3.57 ERA, 1.015 WHIP in four April starts against the Mets, Phillies and Padres), he could earn $15+ this year.  Ramirez (11th in the NL) has only once posted good numbers over a full season, yet this spring he pitched light out.  It'll be interesting to see if his performance was a pre-season mirage but with all the hype Leo Mazzone gets, that may be enough for many people to jump on this bandwagon.

Two Oriole pitchers who have really come around largely because of the tutelage of Ray Miller are Erik Bedard (tied for 13th in the AL) and Daniel Cabrera.  Even though they both have the disadvantage of Javy Lopez as their catcher, both showed tremendous improvement this spring and look ready to add to Miller's already impressive list of young pitching success stories.  I tabbed Bedard last year as well and although it should be noted that he was returning after a year missed due to arm surgery, he still turned a profit on a $1 investment in 5x5 AL only leagues.  Expect much better this year.  Rob Bell (also tied for 13th) has always had talent but like a lot of young pitchers has been undone by the long ball.  He allowed only one home run in 21.2 spring innings and may have finally put it all together.  It will certainly help that the Rays offense has improved and that he pitches in one of the tougher parks to homer in. 

One final dark horse to keep an eye on is Denny Bautista (KC).  He'll pitch for a team that looks like a lock for 100 losses and he still has some control problems, but he had a very good spring (tied for 7th in the AL in Ks this spring) and has the stuff to be a very good starter.  He might not be a great pick-up this year but if he can survive this season with his confidence in tact, he should be a nice sleeper next spring.

For a complete list of this spring's strikeout leaders, click here.