Top Prospects, Part 2
March 27, 2013
One of the truest maxims
of prospect evaluation is that the farther one gets from the major leagues, the
less meaningful the statistics are.
Sure, you get some no-doubt performances that match the tools, but more often
than not a player’s true talent level isn’t revealed until they’ve spent a few
years in the major leagues. There are
number of factors that contribute to this but the two biggest are probably the
lack of uniformity within each level of competition, and players are often
asked to forsake their strengths in order to improve other aspects of their
overall game, i.e. throw their change-up more even though they have a great
fastball and slider, hitting the other way, etc.
Anyway, the primary goal
of a prospect list, in my view, is not to identify which players will
merely make the majors but to identify the players who, given an opportunity,
will make the greatest impact. I feel
this is especially true for those who peruse these lists with the intention of
building a farm system for their dynasty and keeper fantasy teams. Drafting a player whose tools will peak as a
$15 player makes no sense to me because that player will never generate a great
deal of savings even if they defy the odds and peak quickly. For me, I’d rather draft a player who has the
tools to produce a $30+ season, even if it means accepting the greater risk
that he will never achieve it. I
acknowledge there needs to be some consideration given to the likelihood that a
player will make the show, but for the most part players with outstanding tools
will be given plenty of opportunities to showcase them. I also favor players with power over players
who have speed or make contact, and pitchers with great fastballs over pitchers
with great control or great breaking pitches.
In short, I abide by the old scouting adage that you can teach a guy to
throw strikes but you can’t teach a guy to throw 100 mph.
This is why in the
following list you’ll find some players with extraordinary tools ranked higher
than players who are both closer to the majors and have a good chance for
regular playing time. For those players
who might seem out of place, I’ll do my best to explain my reasoning. Without further adieu:
1) Jurickson Profar
2) Oscar Taveras
3) Dylan Bundy
4) Wil Myers
5) Xander Bogaerts
6) Taijuan Walker
I don’t see much
difference between Taijuan Walker and Jose
Fernandez. Both guys were 19-years old
last year with
7) Jose Fernandez
8) Gerrit Cole
9) Zack Wheeler
10) Shelby Miller
11) Miguel Sano
12) Tyler Skaggs
13) Christian Yelich
14) Javier Baez
15) Jameson Taillon
16) Travis D'Arnaud
17) Carlos Correa
18) Anthony Rendon
A lot of prospect lists
downgrade players significantly because of injuries but unless it’s something like
recurrent muscle pulls or hamstring pulls or shoulder problems, I’m not overly
concerned. So for players like Anthony Rendon, I have no qualms about rating him according to his
talent rather than worrying about his injuries.
I do downgrade slightly but not nearly as much as other evaluators. As he showed in the Arizona Fall League and
this spring, the dude can flat out hit.
19) Addison Russell
20) Byron Buxton
21) Mike Zunino
22) Trevor Bauer
23) Kyle Zimmer
24) Billy Hamilton
25) Yasiel
Puig
I really like Puig. Several
sources in spring noted that he doesn’t miss pitches in the zone and when he
connects it stays hit. I’ve watched a
couple of his games and he barreled up pretty much everything in the strike
zone. Granted, this was spring training,
but not many guys hit over .500, even in spring. In fact, I can’t find a record of anyone
doing it, although admittedly I’ve only gone back to 2006. In a game against the White Sox, he ran a
routine outfield single into a double, and muscled up
a broken bat into an outfield bloop. I also watched him get called out on a check
swing in which the umpire thought there was no way he could have held up given
the violence of his swing; instant replay revealed that he had… easily. The conundrum will be how quickly the league
stops throwing pitches in the zone and subsequently how quickly he stops
chasing those pitches. Vin Scully
remarked that he has never seen a player so physically gifted and noted
broadcasting homer Hawk Harrelson couldn’t even talk about his White Sox in a
game against the Dodgers he was gushing so much over Puig. If he figures it out and forces teams to
pitch to him, he’s going to be an incredible offensive force with the kind of
speed and power he possesses.
26) Lucas Giolito
The Rendon
Connundrum (are injuries really that big a concern?) is why Lucas Giolito
is as high on my list as he is. Before
the 2012 draft, there was quite a bit of speculation that he would become the
first high school right-hander ever drafted first overall. His combination of stuff, size, command and
control was comparable to the elite talents of the last decade and that
includes guys like Gerrit Cole and Stephen
Strasburg. However he got injured,
required Tommy John surgery and now all the talent lists are staying away from
him in droves. Tommy John recovery is
close to 100% these days in terms of the returning the physical ability so it
makes little sense to worry about him coming back. He’s still very young, very advanced and
should move quickly enough to still debut at a young age. He is a future ace.
27) Jonathan Singleton
28) Francisco Lindor
29) Julio Teheran
30) Aaron Sanchez
31) Kevin Gausman
32) Archie Bradley
33) Aaron Hicks
34) A.J. Cole
A.J. Cole has huge upside
but suffered from the nasty combination of losing his mechanics last year and
pitching in the hitter’s paradise of the California League. He’ll be pitching most of this season in
either the Eastern League or Carolina League, far more pitcher friendly
environments for him to get his mechanics and confidence back. Before last season, his performance by age
was not that different from that of Jarrod Parker. The biggest difference between the two was
that Parker’s best breaking pitch (his slider) was more impressive and
consistent than Cole’s (a curve), but Cole’s change-up was better. Parker has the higher upside but it’s not by
much.
35) Mike Olt
36) Jorge Soler
37) Carlos Martinez
38) George Springer
39) Alen
Hanson
40) Jackie Bradley
41) Trevor Rosenthal
42) Alex Meyer
Many evaluators suggest
that Meyer’s future is in the bullpen because pitchers his size
often have trouble repeating their mechanics. This is generally true but I prefer to give
Meyer the benefit of the doubt given the tremendous strides he’s made over the
last two years to get under control.
There’s still the issue of developing a consistent change-up to go along
with his plus fastball and slider, but his upside is awesome.
43) Nick Castellanos
44) Allen Webster
45) David Dahl
46) Gary Sanchez
47) Kaleb
Cowart
48) Chris Archer
49) Jedd
Gyorko
50) Mason Williams
51) Jon Schoop
In the Orioles milieu, Schoop gets overshadowed by Manny Machado and rightly so as
Machado is a spectacular talent.
However, Schoop is no slouch. He performed extremely in the Arizona Fall
League despite being one of the youngest players there, and was a key cog in
the
52) Oswaldo
Arcia
53) Bubba Starling
54) Albert Almora
55) Delino
DeShields Jr
56) Max Fried
57) Taylor Guerrieri
58) Hyun-Jin Ryu
59) Robert Stephenson
60) Brian Goodwin
61) Gregory Polanco
62) Noah Syndergaard
63) Tyler Austin
64) Casey Kelly
65) Matt Barnes
66) Mark Appel
I put Appel
on this list even though he’s still in college because whichever team drafts
him will not have to wait very long for him to contribute at the major league
level. He has been compared to a young
Justin Verlander due to his stuff and size, but
that’s a bit unfair to both parties as it sets the bar of expectation too high
for Appel and doesn’t give enough due to how amazing Verlander really is.
Let’s just leave it as this: Appel will very
likely be the best starting pitcher on the team that drafts him by next season,
and by a substantial margin. (Note:
that’s largely because the teams that have the top six spots in the draft don’t
have very good pitching.)
67) Slade Heathcott
68) Kyle Crick
69) Yordano
Ventura
70) Nick Franklin
71) Luis Heredia
72) Michael Wacha
73) Jake Odorizzi
74) Danny Hultzen
Maybe I’ve been unlucky
every time I’ve watched Hultzen and he’s just been
off on those days, but I just don’t see why he gets so many raves. He’s certainly polished but I just don’t see
much upside in his stuff; his fastball is a little above average and he has a
good change-up, but his breaking pitches just aren’t very exciting. He’s middle of the rotation for me.
75) Kyle Gibson
76) Matt Davidson
77) Justin Nicolino
78) Nolan Arenado
79) Jake Marisnick
80) Kolten
Wong
81)
82) Tony Cingrani
83) Wily Peralta
84) Trevor Story
85) Jesse Biddle
86) Daniel Corcino
87) Courtney Hawkins
88) Arodys
Vizcaino
89) Lewis Brinson
Lewis Brinson is as physically
gifted as any of the big named high school outfield prospects (Bubba Starling,
Byron Buxton, etc.), yet is not on many prospect lists due to his performance
in high school showcases and concern about his ability to make contact. However, the Rangers tinkered with his swing
and the results were respectable enough to generate a good deal of optimism
that he’ll realize his potential as the next BJ Upton/Chris Young/Mike Cameron.
90) James Paxton
91) Adam Eaton
92) Rymer
Liriano
93) Zach Lee
94) Brandon Maurer
95) Andrew Heaney
96) Martin Perez
97) Avisail
Garcia
98) J.R. Graham
99) Bruce Rondon
100) Lance McCullers
So there it is. Enjoy the Show!