The Compleat Gallo

October 21, 2016

 

 

I have to say that I have never been so intrigued with the future of a player than I am with Joey Gallo. The reason is that in this day and age of seeing the repackaging of everything that has happened before, we might be seeing something entirely new: a player who truly embodies the three true outcomes of a hitter. No one in history has his combination of tremendous power, the ability to draw a walk and the inability to make consistent contact. And believe me, I’ve looked. Most players generate comp scores – which is basically a picture of who the player’s statistical legacy will resemble - that have at least one player in the neighborhood of 95% similarity. Most have numerous statistical dopplegangers. Gallo’s closest comp scored a 65%. His combination of power, strikeouts and walks is as unique as it gets.

 

What follows is a comparison to a number of the wildest swinging/disciplined sluggers on which there is strong information. The list includes a wide range of successes and failures: Chris Davis, Chris Carter, Adam Dunn, Russell Branyan, Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Javier Baez, Mitch Moreland, Greg Halman, Telvin Nash, Miguel Sano, Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Cody Johnson, etc... you get the idea.

 

What will be obvious from the numbers is that Gallo’s contact rate in the majors is worse than all of them (at least the ones who made it that far), although it's very close to that of Javier Baez when he first came up. His strikeout rate is worse as well, in some cases more than 10% worse even in the minors. There's no question he has been dangerously insufficient making contact. However, he is younger than most of them were at the same levels and he showed significant improvement this year. And his swinging strike rate is very close to that of Branyan and Carter when they first arrived despite being two years younger. His walk rate is better than all of them, much better in some cases. And then there's the power: roughly one in every three hits is a home run for his entire career including the majors. 

 

So what can we expect from Gallo next year and beyond?

 

I decide to break it down by age so with each table I’ll follow with some commentary.

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2011

Azl Cubs

Ariz

Rk

chn

ss

18

-3.1

3

12

2

4

2

0

0

0

2

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.333

0.333

0.500

833

0.167

0.333

0.400

--

--

6

12

0.000

0.167

Baez

2011

Boise

Nwst

A-

chn

ss

18

-3.4

2

6

0

1

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

2

0

0

0

0

0

0.167

0.167

0.167

334

0.000

0.000

0.250

--

--

1

6

0.000

0.333

Branyan

1994

Burlington

App

Rk

cle

3B

18

-2

55

171

21

36

10

0

5

13

4

2

25

64

4

2

0

1

3

0.211

0.323

0.357

680

0.146

0.304

0.301

2.56

34.20

61

201

0.124

0.327

C Johnson

2007

Danville

App

Rk

atl

Of

18

-2.6

63

243

51

74

18

5

17

57

7

0

26

72

1

0

0

0

1

0.305

0.374

0.630

1004

0.325

0.461

0.370

2.77

14.30

153

270

0.096

0.268

Carter

2005

Bristol

App

Rk

cha

31

18

-2.7

65

233

33

66

17

0

10

37

2

1

17

64

8

0

2

2

4

0.283

0.350

0.485

835

0.202

0.279

0.348

3.76

23.30

113

262

0.065

0.256

Cust

1997

Azl Diamondbacks

Ariz

Rk

ari

of

18

-1.3

35

121

26

37

11

1

3

33

2

0

31

39

0

0

0

0

4

0.306

0.447

0.488

935

0.182

0.455

0.430

1.26

40.30

59

152

0.204

0.257

Dunn

1998

Billings

Pio

Rk

cin

of

18

-2.3

34

125

26

36

3

1

4

13

4

2

22

23

3

1

0

1

3

0.288

0.404

0.424

828

0.136

0.328

0.323

1.05

31.30

53

151

0.146

0.156

Gallo

2012

Azl Rangers

Ariz

Rk

tex

3b

18

-2.8

43

150

44

44

10

1

18

43

6

0

37

52

3

1

0

3

0

0.293

0.435

0.733

1168

0.440

0.727

0.313

1.41

8.30

110

193

0.192

0.278

Gallo

2012

Spokane

Nwst

A-

tex

3b

18

-3.4

16

56

9

12

2

0

4

9

0

0

11

26

0

2

0

0

0

0.214

0.343

0.464

807

0.250

0.446

0.308

2.36

14.00

26

67

0.164

0.388

Halman

2006

Everett

Nwst

A-

sea

of

18

-3.4

28

116

19

30

6

4

5

15

10

4

3

32

3

1

1

0

2

0.259

0.295

0.509

804

0.250

0.328

0.316

10.67

23.20

59

123

0.024

0.269

McPherson

1999

The Citadel

Socon

College

 

 

18

 

31

87

14

21

4

0

1

14

0

0

11

30

1

 

1

1

 

0.241

0.330

0.322

652

0.080

0.207

0.351

2.73

87.00

28

101

0.109

0.306

Nash

2009

GCL Astros

GCL

Rk

hou

lf

18

-2.8

40

142

15

31

10

1

1

20

1

2

12

45

1

0

0

2

6

0.218

0.280

0.324

604

0.106

0.183

0.306

3.75

142.00

46

157

0.076

0.292

Sano

2011

Elizabethton

App

Rk

min

3b

18

-2.9

66

267

58

78

18

7

20

59

5

4

23

77

2

0

0

1

4

0.292

0.352

0.637

989

0.345

0.434

0.339

3.35

13.40

170

293

0.078

0.266

Wood

2003

Provo

Pio

Rk

ana

ss

18

-2.8

42

162

25

45

13

2

5

31

1

1

16

48

2

0

0

1

2

0.278

0.348

0.475

823

0.198

0.296

0.364

3.00

32.40

77

181

0.088

0.270

Wood

2003

Azl Angels

Ariz

Rk

ana

ss

18

-2.5

19

78

14

24

8

2

0

13

3

0

4

15

2

0

0

2

2

0.308

0.349

0.462

811

0.154

0.244

0.369

3.75

--

36

86

0.047

0.183

 

So here is our first inkling that we might be looking at something special. Gallo was drafted out of high school and sent to the Arizona Short Season League where he broke the league record for homers. Most high school hitters are considered good power prospects if they hit 9-10 homers in a season, or maybe 30 in a high school career; Gallo hit 67. Notice the other players on the list who also have a lot of homers; see how many more at bats they have? Close to 100 more than Gallo. Also notice his walk rate; it more than doubles most of the hitters on the list. The strikeout rate? Yes, we’re seeing the whole enchilada right away.

 

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2012

Peoria

Midw

A

chn

ss

19

-3

57

213

41

71

10

5

12

33

20

3

9

48

10

0

0

3

3

0.333

0.383

0.596

979

0.263

0.385

0.378

5.33

17.80

127

235

0.038

0.216

Baez

2012

Daytona

FSL

A+

chn

ss

19

-4.6

23

80

9

15

3

1

4

13

4

2

5

21

1

1

0

0

1

0.188

0.244

0.400

644

0.213

0.300

0.200

4.20

20.00

32

86

0.058

0.247

Branyan

1995

Columbus

SAL

A

cle

3b

19

-2.5

76

277

46

71

8

6

19

55

1

1

27

120

3

2

0

3

6

0.256

0.326

0.534

860

0.278

0.375

0.369

4.44

14.60

148

310

0.087

0.395

C Johnson

2008

Rome

SAL

A

atl

of

19

-3.2

127

468

62

118

26

1

26

89

8

3

40

177

0

0

0

6

8

0.252

0.307

0.479

786

0.226

0.323

0.339

4.43

18.00

224

514

0.078

0.348

Carter

2006

Great Falls

Pio

Rk

cha

1b

19

-2.2

69

251

37

75

21

1

15

59

4

4

34

70

8

5

0

1

3

0.299

0.398

0.570

968

0.271

0.406

0.359

2.06

16.70

143

294

0.116

0.246

Carter

2006

Kannapolis

SAL

A

cha

1b

19

-3.2

13

46

4

6

3

0

1

5

0

0

5

17

1

0

0

0

1

0.130

0.231

0.261

492

0.130

0.239

0.179

3.40

46.00

12

52

0.096

0.333

Cust

1998

Lethbridge

Pio

Rk

ari

of

19

-1.3

73

223

75

77

20

2

11

56

15

8

86

71

4

3

0

2

3

0.345

0.530

0.601

1131

0.256

0.673

0.462

0.83

20.30

134

315

0.273

0.230

Cust

1998

South Bend

Midw

A

ari

1b

19

-2.6

16

62

5

15

3

0

0

4

0

1

5

20

0

1

0

1

0

0.242

0.294

0.290

584

0.048

0.113

0.349

4.00

--

18

68

0.074

0.299

Dunn

1999

Rockford

Midw

A

cin

of

19

-2.7

93

313

62

96

16

2

11

44

21

10

46

64

10

3

0

3

6

0.307

0.409

0.476

885

0.169

0.351

0.353

1.39

28.50

149

372

0.124

0.178

Gallo

2013

Azl Rangers

Ariz

Rk

tex

3b

19

-1.9

5

19

4

7

4

0

2

10

1

0

2

7

0

0

0

0

0

0.368

0.429

0.895

1324

0.526

0.684

0.500

3.50

9.50

17

21

0.095

0.333

Gallo

2013

Hickory

SAL

A

tex

3b

19

-3.3

106

392

82

96

19

5

38

78

14

1

48

165

5

1

0

1

2

0.245

0.334

0.610

944

0.365

0.520

0.305

3.44

10.30

239

446

0.108

0.375

Halman

2007

Everett

Nwst

A-

sea

of

19

-2.2

62

238

37

73

19

1

16

37

16

8

21

85

4

4

1

1

2

0.307

0.371

0.597

968

0.290

0.412

0.413

4.05

14.90

142

265

0.079

0.328

Halman

2007

Wisconsin

Midw

A

sea

of

19

-3

52

187

26

34

5

0

4

15

15

7

8

77

5

0

1

1

1

0.182

0.234

0.273

507

0.091

0.176

0.280

9.63

46.80

51

202

0.040

0.395

McPherson

2000

The Citadel

NCAA

College

so

 

19

 

59

233

50

88

18

3

9

55

3

1

25

42

2

 

2

2

2

0.378

0.439

0.597

1036

0.219

0.335

0.429

1.68

25.90

139

264

0.095

0.163

Nash

2010

Greeneville

App

Rk

hou

lf

19

-2.1

57

200

30

53

12

1

12

39

1

1

25

64

1

0

0

1

5

0.265

0.348

0.515

863

0.250

0.375

0.328

2.56

16.70

103

227

0.110

0.284

Nash

2010

Tri City

NYPL

A-

hou

lf

19

-2.5

4

13

2

4

1

1

1

1

0

1

0

7

0

0

0

0

0

0.308

0.308

0.769

1077

0.462

0.385

0.600

--

13.00

10

13

0.000

0.538

Sano

2012

Beloit

Midw

A

min

3b

19

-3

129

457

75

118

28

4

28

100

8

3

80

144

8

4

0

8

10

0.258

0.373

0.521

894

0.263

0.449

0.307

1.80

16.30

238

553

0.145

0.268

Wood

2004

Cedar Rapids

Midw

A

ana

ss

19

-2.9

125

478

65

120

30

5

11

64

21

5

46

117

5

3

4

2

8

0.251

0.322

0.404

726

0.153

0.282

0.310

2.54

43.50

193

535

0.086

0.223

 

Another pattern is beginning to emerge: upon first exposure to a level he struggles mightily but makes adjustments and the second time through just mashes the ball. Again he is among the leaders on this board in walk rate as well as one of the youngest compared to his competition, both promising signs for a bright future. It was after this season that Gallo worked with Jason Giambi on his hitting, as well as Troy Tulowitzki on his defensive footwork.

 

 

Player

Year

Team

Lg

Level

Org

Pos

Age

Diff

G

AB

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

CS

BB

SO

HBP

IBB

SH

SF

GDP

AVG

OBP

SLG

OPS

ISO

secA

Babip

K/BB

AB/HR

TB

PA

BB%

K%

Baez

2013

Daytona

FSL

A+

chn

ss

20

-3.8

76

299

59

82

19

4

17

57

12

2

21

78

11

0

0

6

8

0.274

0.338

0.535

873

0.261

0.365

0.310

3.71

17.60

160

337

0.062

0.244

Baez

2013

Tennessee

Sou

AA

chn

ss

20

-4.7

54

218

39

64

15

0

20

54

8

2

19

69

0

2

0

3

3

0.294

0.346

0.638

984

0.344

0.459

0.333

3.63

10.90

139

240

0.079

0.291

Branyan

1996

Columbus

SAL

A

cle

3b

20

-1.4

130

482

102

129

20

4

40

106

7

4

62

166

5

5

0

3

4

0.268

0.355

0.575

930

0.307

0.442

0.319

2.68

12.10

277

552

0.112

0.305

C Davis

2006

Spokane

Nwst

A-

tex

of-1b

20

-1.4

69

253

38

70

18

1

15

42

2

3

23

65

3

2

0

1

4

0.277

0.343

0.534

877

0.257

0.344

0.316

2.83

16.90

135

280

0.082

0.236

C Johnson

2009

Myrtle Beach

Caro

A+

atl

lf

20

-3.3

122

422

59

102

18

1

32

84

10

7

64

171

4

7

0

3

8

0.242

0.345

0.517

862

0.275

0.434

0.315

2.67

13.20

218

493

0.130

0.352

C Johnson

2009

Mississippi

Sou

AA

atl

lf

20

-4.6

6

22

2

4

0

0

0

3

1

0

3

9

0

0

0

0

0

0.182

0.280

0.182

462

0.000

0.182

0.308

3.00

--

4

25

0.120

0.360

Carter

2007

Kannapolis

SAL

A

cha

1b

20

-2.2

126

467

84

136

27

3

25

93

3

2

67

112

6

3

0

5

6

0.291

0.383

0.522

905

0.231

0.377

0.331

1.67

18.70

244

545

0.123

0.210

Cust

1999

High Desert

Calif

A+

ari

of

20

-2.9

125

455

107

152

42

3

32

112

1

4

96

145

2

2

0

3

5

0.334

0.450

0.651

1101

0.316

0.521

0.427

1.51

14.20

296

556

0.173

0.263

Dunn

2000

Dayton

Midw

A

cin

of

20

-1.8

122

420

101

118

29

1

16

79

24

5

100

101

12

4

0

6

10

0.281

0.428

0.469

897

0.188

0.471

0.330

1.01

26.30

197

538

0.186

0.194

Gallo

2014

Myrtle Beach

Caro

A+

tex

3b

20

-3.2

58

189

53

61

9

3

21

50

5

3

51

64

2

3

0

4

3

0.323

0.463

0.735

1198

0.413

0.693

0.370

1.25

9.00

139

246

0.207

0.267

Gallo

2014

Frisco

Tex

AA

tex

3b

20