San Francisco Giants
 

The Giants started out 4-8 last season, losing their first 6 games at their new ballpark.  However, after they got over their new season jitters, they went 93-57 to finish with the best record in baseball.  Part of the turnaround was due to an exceptional offense that suffered very few significant injuries - something that hadn't happened since their 1997 division title run.  The main reason they did as well as they did, though was their pitching.  The Giants bullpen was led by two dominating relievers (Robb Nen and Felix Rodriguez) and the rotation was fronted by a young trio of promising arms (Livan Hernandez, Russ Ortiz and Shawn Estes).
 

Offense

This offseason,. the Giants lost two key components of their offense - Bill Mueller and Ellis Burks.  The under-appreciated Mueller gave the line-up a high on-base, good contact hitter perfectly suited for hitting second.  Burks provided an additional offensive firepower behind second baseman and 2000 NL MVP Jeff Kent and left fielder Barry Bonds.  To replace their production, the Giants will use a quasi-platoon at third with Russ Davis and Pedro Feliz and another quasi-platoon in right field with Armando Rios, Eric Davis and perhaps Shawon Dunston.  I use the term "quasi-platoon" because their number of at bats will be determined by no other factors than who's hot and who manager Dusty Baker has a gut feeling about each day.

As for their actual production, the Giants hope that what they lose in on base potential with Mueller's departure, they'll get back with power with Davis and Feliz.  And while Rios had a fine year in a part time role (.347 on base/.502 slugging) last year, the Giants can't seriously expect that he, Davis and Dunston can actually replace what they got from Burks (.419 on base/.606 slugging).

Marvin Benard gets the lion's share of time in centerfield and leads off for the Giants.  Dusty Baker gets a lot of press for being a brilliant manager, but one has to wonder why someone so brilliant would have a lead off guy who only gets on base 35% of the time.  That percentage would be fine for a guy down in the order, but for the guy who's gonna have the most plate appearances on the team.  Of course, this year, Baker might not have any other alternative.  Benard's best ability is decent enough speed to steal around 25 bases.

Jeff Kent's remarkable 200 season followed a run of 3 very good years which put him in exclusive company.  With the 125 runs he drove in last year, he surpassed Rogers Hornsby's mark for most RBI by a second baseman over a 4-year period with 475.  Of course, it helps to have Barry Bonds batting in front of you.

Shortstop Rich Aurilia combined with Kent to become the first keystone combo to homer 20 times apiece in consecutive years.  Other than power, though, Aurilia doesn't really provide a whole lot on offense.  Still, having a power hitting shortstop is a luxury few NL teams have.

Coming into this season on the verge of hitting his 500th home run, there was a bit of Bonds-mania among the statistical elite.  Some even went so far as to describe him as the best left fielder ever.  Uhhh... no.  Bonds IS the best all-around player since Henry Aaron and pretty easily the best position player in the last quarter century.  That will probably change as Junior and ARod enter their peak years.  But there are some very good reasons why Williams is arguably the second best player ever.  As for Bonds, his .440 on base and .688 slugging last season showed he's still one of the most productive hitters in the game.  If there's one stat that shows how impressive he is, it's intentional walks: he's been given more intentional passes that any man on record (they didn't start keeping the stat until 1955) and led the NL 7 straight years from 1992-1998.  Even at 36, when most other players are showing an appreciable decline in production, Bonds is still going strong.  His only obstacle will be staying healthy enough to convert those rate numbers into wins.

JT Snow's calling card at first has always been his glove.  He does have a modicum of power and has improved his on base skills in recent years enough to make himself an average first baseman.

The catching duties will be handled by ex-Phillie phenom Bobby Estelella and veteran Benito Santiago. Estelella has a terrific eye at the plate, but apparently poor hand/eye coordination as his contact rate is one of the lowest in the majors.  Once he makes contact, though, the ball goes a long way.  Since his days in San Diego, where he won Rookie of the Year honors in 1987, Santiago has played for 7 different teams in 9 years.  He still has some pop in his bat, but still has a philosophical reluctance to take a walk.

As long as Bonds and Kent are healthy, the Giants should be an above average offensive team.  However, if either endures any nagging injuries, this line-up is not deep or resilient enough to carry the load.  RATING: 55
 

Defense

Other than third base, where Davis is well below average, the Giants play average to good defense.  None of the fielders is particularly talented range-wise, but each is very competent at making good decisions and making the plays they can get to.  Snow makes the other infielders look better than they are with his tremendous ability to catch anything within several feet of him.  RATING: 55
 
 

Starting Pitching

Frankly, it's amazing that the Giants young pitchers haven't blown out there arms.  Livan Hernandez has endured one of the heaviest workloads in recent memory (he threw 120+ pitches in 17 of his 33 starts), yet was able to pitch well enough to win 17 games last season.  Any normal pitcher who had thrown as many pitches as he has over the past 4 years would have been on his second or third arm by now.  His continued survival through Baker's pitch count non-chalance is nothing short of amazing.  Should he survive another year of that kind of workload, the Catholic Church should ordain it as the "Miracle by the Bay".  Russ Ortiz hasn't endured quite the workload Hernandez has, but he's pretty close.  Oddly enough, Baker had a change of heart with him in July last year with some interesting results.  Before July, Ortiz had thrown 120+ pitches 6 times.  His ERA was 6.92.  From July until the end of the season, Baker let him top 120 just once.  His second half ERA?  3.22.  Interesting, yes?  Shawn Estes endured a Hernandez-like workload in his breakthrough year of 1997.  Ever since, he has struggled, although he's showing some positive signs to start this year that he might be recovering.  Kirk Rueter is a fascinating study in the effect of excellent run support.  Give him average run support and he'd be lucky to be a middle reliever in AAA.  Yet, for some unknown reason, he is always among the leaders in run support, having received an average of 6.55 runs per game for his career.  Many pitchers never get that kind of support in a year, much less a career.  Benign Mark Gardner will get the 5th spot in the rotation until either Baker-casualty Joe Nathan returns, or until hot prospect Kurt Ainsworth is ready to put his arm to the Baker test.  Under normal circumstances, this is one of the more talented young pitching staffs in the National League, at least in terms of the front three.  But because of the heavy workloads at such an early age, they are high risk for serious meltdown, especially Hernandez and Ortiz.  RATING: 55
 

Bullpen

Closer Robb Nen was simply nasty last year.  A year off arm surgery, he came back with a vengeance, striking out 92 batters in 66 innings on his way to a microscopic 1.50 ERA and 41 saves.  Setting him up in the 8th inning was the nearly as dominating Felix Rodriguez, who struck out 95 batters in 81 innings and a 2.64 ERA.  Aaron Fultz showed considerable promise as a lefty set-up man after posting a brilliant campaign in the winter leagues last year.  In addition, the Giants acquired Tim Worrell from the Cubs this offseason, who seems to have found his niche in the pen after mixed results in 6 years of starting.  Alan Embree gives Baker another option from the left side to complete what is a very formidable bullpen.  RATING: 70
 

Management

Dusty Baker has won Manager of the Year honors twice in the past 5 years, and probably for good reason.  Every year, the Giants get written off as under-funded and under-talented and yet ever year they are right in the thick of the division race.  Part of that is due to Baker, who doesn't make many mistakes when it comes to in game strategizing.  However, he is not without flaw.  As previously mentioned, he's not very careful with young arms.  The fact that one hasn't actually exploded on the mound is somewhat of a minor miracle.  He's also made some questionable line-up decisions such as batting Benard at leadoff when Mueller got on base almost 30% more often.  One also has to wonder about his decision to go with Mark Gardner last year in the division series against the Mets when his team was one loss away from elimination.  It was Hernandez' day to start, and he was the team's winningest pitcher.  Why go with your teams' 5th starter when your ace is ready to go?  Who knows how that decision might have changed the outcome?  Maybe the Giants stay close and the pressure finally gets to Bobby Jones.  As it was, the Mets scored 2 in the first and 2 more in the fifth and Jones was on cruise control the rest of the way with a one-hitter.  Very questionable decision that no one in the media seemed to notice.  Weird.  GM Brian Sabean has done a pretty tremendous job of getting low cost talent for the Giants.  One of his first moves when he was given the job was to trade away a very popular Matt Williams to Cleveland.  While he was raked mercilessly in the press for being an idiot, it appears as though he might have gotten the last laugh.  In addition to a utility player and a reliever, he got Jeff Kent.  RATING: 60
 

Conclusion

As long as they have Bonds and Kent healthy, the Giants will at least be in contention.  However, just about everything went right for them last year and very little went wrong.  That rarely happens two years in a row.  Even more ominous is the situation with their starters.  Odds are that the heavy workloads will catch up to Hernandez and Ortiz.  When/if they do, the Giants have no viable alternatives.  Without them, Baker will have little to be brilliant with.