San Diego Padres
 

Ever since their 1998 run to the World Series, the Padres have been on spin cycle.  For every smart move they've made to get them closer to a return engagement, they've made an equal and opposite move in the opposite direction.  Last year, the situation was made worse by an NL record number of injuries.  At one point, the Friars had 7 players on the 60-day disabled list.  Even though the finished last in the division, their record of 76-86 was respectable considering the adversity they had gone through.  Had they been in the Central division instead of a very competitive West, that record would have placed them 3rd in a 6 team division.
 

Offense

The Padres offense was 12th in the National League in runs scored last season, which isn't all that bad considering the park they play in suppresses run scoring by 17%.  That makes the hitting feats of Tony Gwynn all the more amazing.  The man has won 8 batting average titles and currently holds the 16th best career batting average ever and the best since Ted Williams.  But back when Williams played, bullpens weren't used as much as they are today.  There weren't many lefty specialists or pitchers who just pitched the ninth inning.  If a starter was still throwing strikes in the ninth inning, he was still in there.  Not so today, when it's not unusual for a batter to face three different pitchers in a game.  That's a huge disadvantage for the hitter, as he is not only facing fresh pitchers, but is constantly having to adjust for different arm angles, release points and repertoire with each new pitcher.  When you consider the park he's played in and the evolution of the way pitchers are used, Gwynn is probably second only to Ty Cobb as the best average hitter ever.  That said, Tony Gwynn is done as a regular player.  His knees are shot after numerous surgeries and although he still has the skills to play everyday, his body simply won't hold up.  However, if the Pads can find a good right fielder to replace him, he'll be the best 4th outfielder/bat off the bench in baseball.

And that was the thinking behind GM Kevin Towers trading a very promising young starter in Matt Clement to the Marlins for right fielder Mark Kotsay.  In college and in the mid-minors, Kotsay was an offensive force, racking up OPS' in excess of .900.  However, that ability has not yet translated to the major league level.  In fact, he's been about a run below average.  On the plus side is that he's just 25 years old and yet to enter his peak years.  Should he find his power stroke, with his discerning eye at the plate, he could become a Bobby Abreu-type player, hitting 20-25 homers, stealing as many bases, driving in and scoring in excess of 100 runs a year and once again posting an OPS of .900+ annually.

Just three years ago, third baseman Phil Nevin was in the same boat as Kotsay - a college star who had posted a good year in the minors but hadn't done much at the major league level.  With Nevin, though, what was holding him back was mental maturity rather than physical.  Once he figured out that he wasn't the best player ever, but just a really talented player who needed to work hard every day, things began to click.  Now in his third year with the Pads, he is one of the most productive third baseman in the majors.  It's funny, but many in the statistical elite still view him as a fluke.  In reality, he probably still hasn't peaked.  Last year was his best as a major leaguer, but he played through a sprained ankle to start the season and a pulled abdominal muscle to end it.  Should he stay reasonably healthy in 2001, there's absolutely no reason he couldn't reach the 40 home run plateau and approach the 1.000 OPS mark.  Even battling through injury as he did, he was still almost 2 runs better than the average NL hitter.

First baseman Ryan Klesko is another Friar who has been the focus of seam-head disdain.  His problem has always been hitting lefties.  However, Bobby Cox rarely gave him an opportunity to prove that thinking wrong when he was with the Braves.  Manager Bruce Bochy named him the everyday first baseman last year and he turned in a pretty decent year, bettering major league average hitters by two and a half runs per game.  He still didn't hit lefties particularly well (.256), but we wasn't so bad that he was a liability.  He did get on base against them better than 34% of the time.  Like Nevin, his 2000 statistics don't really show what he's capable of.  At the All-Star break, he was hitting .319 with 19 homers and 56 RBI.  His on base + slugging (OPS) was 1.030.  Back spasms reduced his effectiveness in the second half and his final totals ended up: .283, with 26 homers, 92 RBI and an OPS of .909.  This offseason, he changed his fitness routine to focus on preventing further back troubles.

Oddly enough, Damian Jackson has become somewhat of a fantasy baseball darling this winter.  The Pads sporadically tried him at shortstop for 2 years with only moderate success.  Errors have really been a bugaboo for him.  That in itself was not a terrible problem as he has unbelievable range and gets to balls most other shortstops can only see with binoculars.  The problem was that he took those errors to heart and let them affect his attitude at the plate.  Case in point: through the first month and a half of last year, Jackson was batting .310 and getting on base almost 38% of the time.  But in late May, he committed a spate of errors - 9 in 13 games - and his hitting went down the tubes.  In a matter of a few weeks, he lost 50 points in batting average and the rest of his game dropped as well.  Eventually, the Pads decided to try him at second base.  The theory was that they'd still keep his remarkable range in the middle infield, but at second he'd have easier plays to make and wouldn't be as prone to make errors.  The experiment was a success.  Jackson finished the season at second base and posted a .370 on base percentage and a .460 slugging in the final two months, both good marks for a lead-off hitter.  The added bonus is that Jackson is an excellent base stealer, hovering around 80% success for his career.

But that left a big problem: who would play short?  Chris Gomez had been the alternate shortstop during Jackson's tenure there and was the main guy from 1996 to 1998.  However, his knees were almost as bad off as Gwynn's.  Even before that, his range could not be described as anything better than average.  But the big reason why the Pads tried Jackson in the first place was that Gomez was, for the most part, an automatic out.  So they traded for Santiago Perez and acquired Donaldo Mendez in the rule 5 draft.  Perez is similar in ability to Jackson in that he has some power and good speed.  He also makes lots of errors.  Mendez comes with a reputation of being a brilliant gloveman and the Pads front office speaks of his offense very highly, even suggesting that he might eventually develop into a power hitting shortstop.  His defense looked to be the real deal in spring.  But the idea that a 22-year old with 3 career home runs in 744 at bats in rookie league and A-ball is suddenly gonna become the next ARod is a little beyond comprehension.  It looks like shortstop will be a sore spot for the Pads for the foreseeable future.

Mike Darr will take over the primary duties in center for the departed Ruben Rivera and Eric Owens.  Darr's bat is a huge upgrade.  He could develop into a similar hitter that Kotsay projects to be.  Their skills and ability are very similar.

In left field, Bubba Trammell will finally get his opportunity to play everyday.  He's been languishing in the high minors and on various teams' benches now for five years.  The knock against him has been his poor defense.  While it's true he's not a good fielder, he's not actually a danger to himself or other fielders.  So there's really no reason why a guy who hits as well as he does should not get regular at bats.  Last year, I drew a comparison between him and Brian Giles.  Their hitting numbers in the minors and their first few years in the majors are pretty similar.  Giles did display a better eye for balls and strikes, but Trammell wasn't that far behind.  And no one is sitting Giles on the bench because of his D.  With a bat in his hands, Trammell should more than make up for any deficiency he has with his glove.

Another option in the outfield is the seemingly ageless Rickey Henderson.  While he doesn't hit with the authority he once did, he still draws walks and can still steal a base or two.  In fact, last year the 42-year old stole 36, while getting caught just 11 times.  Henderson, already in a higher league in stolen bases, is very close to some other milestones.  He's just 2 walks from tying Babe Ruth for the most free passes in history, 68 runs scored from tying Ty Cobb for the major league record and 85 hits from his 3000th.  With his 1370 career stolen bases (Lou Brock is second all-time with 938), 70 leadoff home runs (Bobby Bonds is second with 35) and a career on base percetnage of .404, there's no question that Henderson is the greatest lead-off hitter ever.  However, like Gwynn, his days as a regular outfielder are over.  His average and slugging numbers last year were a Belanger-esque * .233 and .305.  For a guy who plays outfield and doesn't play defense, those aren't gonna get you on the field much.

The catching situation in San Diego has been unclear for a couple of years now.  Since 1998, the Pads have tried 6 different catchers - Greg Myers, Carlos Hernandez, Jim Leyritz, Phil Nevin (yep), Wiki Gonzales and Ben Davis.  With the exception of Nevin, who found better things to do with his time (namely play third base), none of them have been particularly productive.  However, Davis may have had an excuse - he's just 24.  The Pads have been waiting for him to develop, but have not done him any favors by shuttling him back and forth between AAA and the majors for the past 2 years.  If given a chance to play regularly, he could fulfill the promise of his minor league numbers very soon.  A switch-hitting backstop with a gun for an arm and power to hit 15-20 homers a year might be very useful for a team with championship aspirations.  Gonzales is essentially a Carlos Hernandez clone at the plate - hacking at everything and occasionally making contact.

Other than shortstop, the Pads have good starting talent at every position offensively.  Gwynn's not long for the field, but the Pads have a good deal of potential in Kotsay, Darr, Trammell, Jackson and Davis.  Whether those players develop the skills necessary to bring it to fruition is another question entirely.  The Pads won't shake up the run scoring world, but they won't be as bad as many have predicted.  RATING: 50 (60 potentially)

(* - Mark Belanger was a great fielding shortstop for the Baltimore Orioles in the 60's and 70's who finished his career with a .228 batting average, a .302 on base and a slugging percentage of .280.  He was the classic great field, no-hit player.)
 

Defense

The Pads are gonna have some problems defensively.  Gwynn, Gomez, Trammell and Henderson have almost no range.  So if a ball is hit to the shortstop, right fielder or left fielder, there's a good chance it's gonna be a hit.  That accounts for about 40% of all batted balls.  The defense is much better with Mendez at short, but the Pads aren't such an offensive powerhouse that they can afford to use him regularly.  Klesko is no gold glover at first either, although his defense is improving to almost average.  Darr is a little above average range-wise but has a good arm.  Kotsay has good range and a very good arm, so there will be days when the Pads outfield D is actually pretty decent.  Jackson has terrific range.  If he can just keep things under control, he'll rival Pokey Reese for gold glove honors at second.  Nevin is not bad at third.  He's a little stiff side-to-side.  He has a strong arm but lazy mechanics makes for more wild throws than he should.  Both Davis and Gonzales have terrific arms for gunning down runners but are flawed in other ways.  Gonzales is pretty bad at blocking balls in the dirt.  Davis is a lot like former Padre Benito Santiago in that he avoids contact with the runners and he tries to glove everything rather than moving his body to keep it in front of him.  RATING: 45
 

Starting Pitching

For the same reason the Padre offense isn't as ineffective as it looks on paper - the ballpark - the Padre pitching isn't as effective as it looks.  Staff "ace" Woody Williams has all the personality traits normally associated with a #1 starter: aggressive, tenacious and indomitable, and inconsolable when he's taken out of a game.  He just doesn't have the arm to match the demeanor.  He doesn't throw very hard - he can occasionally get his fastball up to 90 - and none of his other pitches are particularly intimidating.  However, his attitude makes up for much of his lack of ability.  Last year was a perfect example.  Early in the season, he was diagnosed with an aneurysm in his arm that threatened his career.  He was told it wasn't certain that he'd pitch ever again.  By July, he was back in the rotation and went on to win 10 games in 23 starts, posting his best ERA in 5 years.

Left-hander Sterling Hitchcock has much of the same kind of tenacity.  Like Williams, he isn't blessed with the greatest of arms, although his cut fastball moves as much as any in the game.  Unlike Williams, his injury was a season ending blow-out of his elbow.  He had Tommy John surgery last June and hopes to be back in the majors by this June.  Personally, I'd like to see him take his time returning as rushing the healing process after this kind of surgery can have long term detrimental effects.  I'd hate to see his career end at age 30.

Adam Eaton came over in the deal that sent Andy Ashby to Philly last spring.  By himself, he has made that deal lop-sided in the Padre's favor.  Although he is young and still learning the ropes in the majors, there is little doubt that he will be a very good major league pitcher barring serious injury.  Some have likened his ability to that of a young Jim Palmer, as he has a good fastball that gets stronger as the game progresses throwing 88-89 in the early innings while finishing throwing 94-95.

Bobby Jones signed with the Pads in what could be the steal of the offseason.  While he hasn't been terribly effective the last 2 years, Jones is a pretty decent pitcher as his career 4.13 career ERA will attest.  He's certainly not as bad as his "hands-off" treatment this winter would imply.  Last year, his season peaked when he one-hit the Giants to knock them out of the playoffs.  His stuff isn't overpowering, but he has good command of 4 pitches.  It would help if the Pads had a great defense behind him, but he's good enough on his own to pitch 200 quality innings.

Brian Tollberg is the proverbial tip of the iceberg when it comes to the pitching talent that's on the way from the Pads farm system. Tollberg, like Jones, is a control pitcher but he's Maddux-like in his efficiency, rarely topping 100 pitches in an outing.  Behind Tollberg are Wascar Serrano, Mike Bynum, Jake Peavy and Dennis Tankersley; each of whom are among the top 50 pitching prospects in the game and each will be up with the big club no later than 2003.

The Pads will use Kevin Jarvis in the rotation to start the season, but they really shouldn't.  In 414 major league innings in his career, he's allowed 83 home runs.  That's some serious gopheritis.  At age 31, it's not likely to get better, even with judicious use of penicillin.  Carlton Loewer is still recovering from arm surgery and it's questionable whether he will ever pitch again.  However, the Pads do have an alternative in Jay Witasick.  He throws hard (93-94) and has one of the wildest curves I've ever seen.  It starts out like a regular curve that breaks straight down, but it has late side-to-side movement, like a mini-slider.  If he can throw it for strikes, he'll be very tough to hit.  A taller strikezone will help as the umps won't give up on it if it starts out high before breaking downward

The Pads starters are pretty average.  Even if they get Hitchcock back, they'll only grade out to be slightly above average.  This is not an intimidating staff.  However, that's not to say that they should be taken lightly or that they can't be effective.  Just that this staff can be hit.  In 4 years, however, that won't be true.  RATING: 45 (55 when/if Hitchcock returns)
 

Bullpen

Trevor Hoffman has been the best closer in the game over the past 7 years, which is remarkable because the average closer lasts less than 5 years in the role.  However, the signs are there that his days atop the hill are numbered.  His fastball, which once ranged as high as 94, is now running around 86-88 mph.  His change-up, the devastating out pitch he's used to get most of hs strikeouts, is only a few miles an hour slower.  The change-up's effectiveness depends on a difference in speed of about 10 mph.  Once the speed difference narrows, batters aren't fooled as often.  Which means the Pads will soon be looking for another closer.  Fortunately, they have several candidates.  The aforementioned Witasick has done well as a reliever and has the stuff and the attitude for the job.  Current set-up man Tom Davey, who came over from Seattle last summer in a trade, throws nearly 100 mph with his fastball.  He was a revelation down the stretch, posting a 0.71 ERA after his call-up.  Left-hander Kevin Walker is another possibility.  The former highs school teammate of Kerry Wood also throws in the mid-90s.  As odd as it may sound, Trevor Hoffman might be the weak link in the Padre bullpen.  It just remains to be seen if the link bends or breaks this year. RATING: 65
 

Management

Bruce Bochy won the manager of the year award in 1998 when the Pads went to the World Series.  And rightly so.  He guided a team that was wracked by injuries all season to the National League pennant.  He has the reputation of being a player's manager.  That is, he's up front with everyone - no clubhouse politicking - and lets his guys play.  His players reward that kind of trust with maximum effort and hustle.  He's also been very careful with young pitchers, monitoring their usage and making sure they're not overworked.  As a former catcher, he's pretty good at handling the bullpen.  His one big flaw is his in game strategy.  He's often guilty of inefficient use of his bench, and of using some bizarre plays, like putting the hit-and-run on with the pitcher at the plate and a catcher at first.  GM Kevin Towers is alternately brilliant and not-so brilliant.  Examples of brilliant: trading Andy Sheets for Phil Nevin, then signing Nevin to a 3-year deal at well below market value, trading Andy Ashby for Adam Eaton and two other pitchers, and getting both Wiki Gonzales and Donaldo Mendez for $50,000 in the rule 5 draft rather than trying to sign comparable talent from the free agent market.  On the not-so-brilliant side: signing Chris Gomez to a three-year deal at well above market value, trading Phil Nevin to Milwaukee for Jeromy Burnitz, who's just as productive, but plays a less demanding defensive position and makes three times more than Nevin.  The deal was later annulled because the Pads couldn't come to an agreement with Burnitz on a contract extension.  But understanding the value of a contract is as important as any talent evaluating skills in today's game.  Not understanding that Phil Nevin provides the Pads with 90% of the production they would get if they had Chipper Jones at close to one tenth the price is inexcusable.  The idea of trading such a player away is entirely foreign to any successful GM.  For the Pads sake, let's hope he learned his lesson.  RATING: 55
 

Conclusion

The Pads have some of the pieces in place for a very good team.  They should get strong production out of first, second and third, and in the next several years, should be better than average at catcher and each of the outfield positions.  They have a lot of very good young pitching on the way and two terrific hitting prospects - Sean Burroughs and Xavier Nady - close to starting their big league careers.  Shortstop, however, is a gaping hole.  How quickly Towers can fix that, along with how quickly their young players develop will determine when they will again compete for the division.  Until then, this is at best a .500 team.