The Next Four Years.
November 11, 2016
Back in March I wrote that Hillary Clinton had a huge messaging problem. Turned out it was worse than I thought. I also wrote that the Republicans would let the Trump dog and pony show play out as long as they could and would suffer any embarrassment as long as it got them the White House. That also proved to be true, although I got the name wrong of who the Republican president would be.†
Guess what? The news is only going to get worse.
You might ask how is this possible?
Have you seen the people Trump is putting in his cabinet? Myron Ebell, a man who has made his career being an activist climate change denier, for Secretary of the EPA? Ben Carson, a doctor who believes that religion takes priority over science, for Secretary of Education? Sarah Palin for Secretary of Interior? I donít even need to go into what a FUBAR that is. Oh, that clown car is going to get much, much worse based on the names that are being floated about. But thatís not even the worst part.
The worst is that Donald Trump will not be president by 2019; Mike Pence will.
And if that doesnít freak you out, then you probably donít know who Mike Pence is.
The first part Ė what will happen to Trump?
He will no doubt be impeached. Look, Donald Trump is a personality, not a businessman. He plays one on TV but honestly what kind of businessman can lose a billion dollars running a casino? He avoids paying taxes but thatĎs because he hired effective accountants and tax attorneys. You donít honestly think Donald Trump stays at home in April with a pencil and an adding machine filing out his own taxes by hand do you? I canít imagine him using TurboTax either. So basically he hires people to do his business thinking for him. Heís just the face of the franchise, which is essentially all he does these days: sell his name for people to slap on their buildings. He doesnít really even build anything anymore because heís been sued so often for breach of contract. That kind of devil-may-care attitude wonít play well in a job that demands lots of focus and remembering lots of details and lots of diplomacy. It was pretty clear from the campaign that he does not have the temperament or the patience or the discipline to be an effective president. Can you imagine him sitting through the morning security briefing with all the details with foreign names? Itís just not in his DNA. Heís also so thin-skinned and so eager to show what a big-shot he is that he will undoubtedly tweet something Ė either a state secret or something offensive directed at a foreign dignitary Ė that will warrant removal from office. Heís also got the little problem of a fraud case before the courts that the presiding judge has advised him to settle.
But even if he does survive his legal troubles, heís also going to have to get along with a Republican Congress that already has plans to privatize Social Security and Medicare and gut the mandates from the ACA in order to allow insurance companies to refuse anyone they please. Trump has actually said that there are some parts of Obamacare that he likes. That wonít play well with the ultra-reactive, arch conservatives who want to white-out Obama from the history books. He promised to implement term limits on Congress but that is going to run into some virulent opposition from the people he seeks to limit, especially since they are the ones who have to vote on it. Trump won because he promised the disenfranchised something to make their lives a little easier, but if all he does is cuts taxes on corporations expecting them to bring jobs home from overseas (they wonít), re-write the tax code to favor only those making $150,000 or more (which will be the result of his current tax plan), and then pillages the middle and lower classesí remaining retirement and returns them to the mercy of the insurance company bean-counters, there really are going to be mobs with pitchforks storming the gates. But if he doesnít toe the party line and goes off message Ė as heís done so often - the Republican Congress will not have to struggle to find a reason to impeach him. Trump is basically in a pickle: take orders from Congressional leaders, or go with his whim and get impeached. If he does the latter, the only way he stays in office is to mobilize the people who voted for him to put massive pressure on Congress. Given this Congressí imperviousness to public opinion Ė they have one of the lowest approval ratings of any Congress in modern history - that likely wonít matter. Trump is basically gone if he behaves like Trump.
Trumpís impeachment will put Mike Pence into the presidencyÖ the second part.†
And this is where it gets
worse. Much worse. Mike Pence is a Republican insider,
and has been since his days on the Agriculture and Judiciary sub-committees
back in 2001.† Why worry about him? Well,
if you are LGBT, while he was governor of
Pence cut funding to
universities and social services. Economic growth in his
state ranked last in the country while he was governor. He signed laws blocking
local governments from requiring businesses to offer higher wages or benefits
beyond those required by federal law. He
repealed a law that required construction companies working on publicly funded
projects to pay a prevailing wage. He abolished inheritance taxes, and despite
He is hugely in favor of
trade pacts, like NAFTA, CAFTA and the TPP, which is ironic since those are one
of the reasons he lost Carrier and UTEC in his state. Nevertheless, he is
lock-step with the Republican Congress that wants to outsource tens of
thousands of manufacturing jobs and give foreign companies
equal legal footing in this country. He is also massively in favor of the
Citizenís United decision, stating that it took us
ďone step closer to the Founding Fatherís vision of free speech.Ē In case you
didnít know, before 1857, corporations in the
But perhaps long term what
is most disturbing about Mike Penceís tenure in
Frankly, it is not too hard to imagine that this was the plan all along. If Trump self-destructed before the convention, the RNC could push someone they really wanted to be the candidate. Once the convention happened, a Trump self-destruction would enable Mike Pence to take the reins. Now that Trump won, they can just wait until Trump melts down under the pressure and move their guy into the Oval.
So if you thought it was
bad that Trump won the Presidency, or if you voted for him thinking he was
going to change things in