Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies had high expectations of challenging for the division crown last year. Unfortunately, they did not take a very close look at their pitching situation before assigning those expectations; otherwise they might have realized how unrealistic they were. The Phillies, however, interpreted their failure to challenge as a lack of management skills on the part of manager Terry Francona. While Francona will probably never make the Hall of Fame and his handling of young pitchers borders on the criminal (pitch count? What's a pitch count?), one would be hard-pressed to lay the blame for the worst record in baseball squarely on Francona. Much of the blame should be shouldered by GM Ed Wade for not realizing that you can't put groundball pitchers on the mound with terrible middle fielders behind them and expect great things, or that in order to prevent the opposition from scoring in the late innings, one must have pitchers who can get batters out in the bullpen.
So the Phillies fired Francona. And replaced him with his diametric opposite, Larry Bowa. Bowa is intense, openly opinionated, emotional, intense, impatient... and did I mention intense? He's also very knowledgeable and as enthusiastic as anyone in baseball. Those characteristics are two sides of the same coin. Back in the 80's he managed the Padres for a few years and when things got difficult, he revealed the negative aspects of his emotionalism to his players and the media. Needless to say, they didn't respond well to his criticism and he was quickly out of a job. In the intervening years, he has received high marks as a bench coach for a number of teams, with much of the praise focused on the positive emotional impact he has brought to those teams. Just like in the NFL where there's a big difference between being a coordinator and being the head coach, there's a big difference between being a coach (more or less an advisor) and being the manager (the guy who has to make the final decisions and bears the responsibility for them). However, if Bowa can bring the positive emotion he had as a coach to the job of manager without descending into the negativity that undid him the last time he was a manager, he could get this team to overachieve.
Offense
Francona won't have to work very hard to get these guys to produce. There's not a better group of young hitters in the NL. Catcher Mike Lieberthal is the elder statesman of the offense at a mere 29 years old. When healthy, he's very capable of on base of .360 and slugging of .550, both exceptional marks for a catcher.
Third baseman Scott Rolen is another player who's capable of well above average production when he's healthy. But that is the key: health. Rolen has suffered from back problems for much of the past 2 years. Many felt that the terrible playing surface at Veteran's Stadium contributed greatly to his troubles and to much of the Phillies health woes the past few seasons. So they replaced the worn out turf with NeXturf, a space age artificial surface that very closely approximates real grass. It received very favorable reviews in Tampa last year where it was installed at the Devil Rays Tropicana Field. The Phillies are hoping that with the more forgiving surface to play on, Rolen will stay healthier. If that proves true, Rolen is capable of becoming the best third baseman in the game, producing like Chipper Jones at the plate but also fielding as well as anyone in the game.
Right fielder Bobby Abreu hasn't has any such problems staying healthy. His problem has been one of recognition. To wit, why has a hitter with a lifetime batting average of .313 and an on base of .413, who hit 25 homers and 42 doubles last year and has stolen at least 25 bases in each of the past two years still a relative unknown outside of Philadelphia and fantasy baseball circles? Abreu is a terrific hitter who, even in an environment of the high strike, should continue to improve as he makes contact with 90% of his swings. He just hits.
Pat Burrell, on the other hand, almost everyone knows. He gained notoriety as a third baseman at the University of Miami when he led the nation in batting average as a freshman, hitting .423. He gained further press coverage when he was the first pick of the Phillies the year after their JD Drew drafting fiasco. He raced through the minors and spent about half the year with the Phils last year. During that brief tenure, he established 3 things: 1) he can hit the ball a long way, smiting some prodigious blasts to the nether regions of several stadia, 2) he can hit anyone's fastball, as he demonstrated with game winning home runs off Armando Benitez, and 3) he still needs to work on his plate discipline, as he was on a record breaking pace with his strikeouts, but his walk rate was not particularly encouraging. Given good coaching, he will be among the elite hitters in the game in a few years.
Travis Lee is a reclamation project of sorts. He had similar credentials to Burrell in college and showed a good deal of promise to start his rookie season. In fact, most pundits couldn't decide who would be better: Lee or Todd Helton. But something happened to Lee. Whether it was injuries as some suggest, or a change in his swing, as Tony Gwynn observed, Lee's production fell off the table. Phillies new hitting coach Jim Levebre has somewhat of a reputation for fixing broken hitters, so it would not be surprising for Lee to return to his .280-ish, 20 homer form by the end of the year and resume what looked to be a very long and productive career.
Doug Glanville will continue to man centerfield. He's an acceptable offensive player, but ill-suited to the lead-off spot, as he doesn't really get on base all that much. Yes, he bats near .300 every year, but he walks so little that his on base percentage is rarely above .335. With his speed and doubles power, he seems much better suited for the #2 spot or perhaps the #7 or 8 spot.
The middle infield will get a slight upgrade at short, where rookie Jimmy Rollins takes over for a conga line of ineffective players. Rollins has some power and speed, but what Bowa really likes is his determined attitude. Marlon Anderson will again give second base a try. He has the talent to be a decent offensive player there, but his defense has been so poor that he hasn't gotten much playing time. This offseason, he supposedly worked hard on the D. The Phillies only other options in the middle infield are Tomas Perez and Kevin Jordan, neither of whom will help much on offense. RATING: 60 (65 if Rolen gets 550+ ABs and Lee finds his old swing)
Defense
The outfield D should be pretty good. Glanville runs down most everything in center, and Abreu has good range and an above average arm in right. Burrell is somewhat out of place in left, but last year's numbers show he's about average. The Phillies corner infielders are excellent, as both Rolen and Lee are in the top 2 or 3 at their positions. Rollins has a reputation of being decent at short and Lieberthal is adequate behind the plate. Anderson was one of the worst in baseball at second last year and will probably require a miracle just to reach average. Even if he doesn't, the Phils should be at least average defensively. However, their weakness in the middle of the infield is still a big concern as middle infielders typically handle almost 50% of batted balls. RATING: 55
Starting Pitching
Terry Francona's lasting legacy might be the career of Randy Wolf. When he arrived 2 years ago at age 22 after a spectacular minor league career, he was hailed as a young Whitey Ford. Unfortunately, Francona must've thought they meant the mature Whitey, who led the league in complete games at age 26, and not the young Whitey, who's arm was probably saved by two years spent in the military in his early 20's. Last year Wolf threw 120+ pitches in a game 11 times. For a comparison, Tom Glavine topped that mark just 3 times. There is mounting evidence that high workloads at a young age damage a pitcher's chances of long term success and Randy Wolf might just be added to the evidence. His second half ERA ballooned by one and a half runs and his performance this spring has not been encouraging. One thing that might be encouraging is that larry Bowa took him out of his first start of the regular season after only 75 pitches. So at least he won't be left on the mound to do permanent damage to himself on those days he's doing temporary damage to the Phillies chances of winning.
Omar Daal nearly became the first pitcher in 20 years to lose 20 games last year. But after a year of hard luck, he actually had some good luck to finish the season, actually winning his final start. It was a bizarre year for him as he was coming off a 16-9 season in 1999 and was viewed as one of the better young lefties in the NL. Even more bizarre was that batters teed off on him, whereas the previous two years he was one of the tougher pitchers to hit. He pitched well this spring, so apparently he didn't take 2000 too personally. Expect a rebound to respectability.
The Mets never could decide if Robert Person was going to be a starter or a closer. Nor could the Blue Jays. Considering the state of the Phillies bullpen over the past few years, he might have been more valuable to them as a closer. But they were convinced he'd be a good starter and it appears they made the right decision. He was one of the toughest starters to hit in the NL, holding batters to a .229 average. If he can eliminate the deep counts caused by his wildness that cause a lot of walks, his high octane fastball and slider could move him into the NL elite.
Bruce Chen was one of the most highly regarded prospects in baseball just 3 short years ago. But the Braves couldn't seem to find a way to get him regular starts and he got rusty waiting in the bullpen. After 2 years of ineffectiveness, he was shipped to the Phillies in a mid-season trade last year. Once he got regular work, the shine on this fallen star returned. Although he had a couple of rocky outings, his results were very positive and he's a regular on many sleeper lists this year. He has good command of 3 pitches and is very efficient in working hitters (low pitch counts). Health-willing, he will develop into the ace of this staff.
The fifth starter will come from either Amaury Telemaco, Cliff Polite or Chris Brock. None of them have much upside, but each is a serviceable innings eater as a swing man, long reliever or an occasional starter.
If Randy Wolf isn't affected by the overuse of the past 2 years it'd be a minor miracle. However, if he's healthy, the Phillies will actually have the best rotation they've had since 1993. RATING: 55
Bullpen
Uh oh. And that about sums up the Phillies bullpen situation for the past several years. They're hoping for a change with closer of the future Vicente Padilla. The only question is his timetable. He was a mid-90s fastball and a nasty curve. But can a 23-year handle the emotional strain of closing out games 40 times a year. To help him in his development and to hold the position while he learns, the Phillies brought in Jose Mesa and Ricky Bottalico, both former closers. Mesa had a decent year as a closer for Seattle in 1999. Bottalico hasn't had a good year since 1996, when he was the closer for... the Phillies. Once Padilla assumes the role, they should make decent set-up men. The Phillies also brought in lefty Rheal Cormier, who is coming off a poor year last year, but held lefties to a .196 average in 1999. It is hoped that Wayne Gomes, who served as the closer for the Phillies last year, will also provide relief. his best year came in 1998 when he was the set-up man for Bottalico. The Phillies have experience in the pen, and at one time or another, all of these guys were quality. However, none of them has provided that kind of quality in some time. Maybe Larry Bowa can help them recapture the magic. RATING: 55
Management
Everyone is watching how Bowa will react to the Phillies first run of bad luck. Not only is this baseball, but this is the Phillies, so bad luck is inevitable. If he can keep his cool and stay on the positive side of things, to be critical, but reaffirming... that will be the challenge. If he blows his cool, he will have another bad experience as a manager. I'm gonna go on a gut feeling from what I've seen so far and say he'll be a positive and get this team to achieve at least to it's talent level. GM Ed Wade is a tougher read. In the offseason when he has plenty of time to think about things, he seems to make poor decisions. However, his mid-season deals were inspired last season, bringing in Chen, Lee and Padilla, each of whom could play key roles in the Phillies success for the next decade. So the more in season deals he makes, apparently, the better off the Phillies will be. RATING: 55
Conclusion
When they are healthy, the Phillies have as good an offense as the Braves or Mets. They aren't too far behind them in the defense department. They have the seeds of a very competitive rotation and if things break right in their bullpen (ok, that's somewhat of a long shot, but stranger things have happened in baseball) this team could challenge the Braves. With the Good Larry Bowa (as opposed to the Evil one that ran the Padres) and a spontaneous Ed Wade, this team might very well win in the East. They should, at least, make it interesting.