New York Mets
 

The Mets missed the first division title since 1988 by one game in 2000.  It didn't seem to matter much to them as they won the wild card handily, surprised the Giants in the Division Series, outmatched the Cardinals in the NLCS but ultimately lost as an exciting a 5-game World Series as could be expected against the Yanks.  Surprisingly, the Mets front office made no significant moves to upgrade the team, instead let Co-#1 starter Mike Hampton and NLDS hero Bobby Jones leave via free agency.
 

Offense

Considering the ballpark they play in, the Mets are an above average team.  Maybe.  Shea Stadium has always been a really tough place to hit, depressing runs scoring by around 10%, home runs by close to 15% and batting averages by 5%.  So the fact that the Mets were 7th best in overall run scoring last year is encouraging.  However, there have been some changes to the line-up.  Shortstop Rey Ordonez is back after missing much of last season with a broken bone in his throwing arm.  And while his replacement Mike Bordick isn't an offensive dynamo, he's certainly much better than glove-minded Ordonez.  Ordonez has consistently been one of, if not the weakest hitters in baseball for 5 years now.  Possibly to their benefit, the Mets will not have Derek Bell in right field this season, who is viewed as an offensive liability.  Instead they'll have some combination of Darryl Hamilton, Timo Perez or Tsuyoshi Shinjo.  If the at bat leader of that group is either Hamilton or Perez, then the Mets will get less production than they did from Bell.  If it's Shinjo, who came over from Japan this offseason, then who knows.  Like his fellow countryman Ichiro Suzuki, he comes with a reputation of being a good defensive outfielder and a player who does all the little things well.  However, Shinjo is no Ichiro with the bat.  If Ichiro ends up being a poor man's Johnny Damon, what will Shinjo be?  A poor man's Thomas Howard?  The Mets should expect less production out of these to spots in the line-up.

Also in the outfield will be Jay Payton and Benny Agbayani.  Payton is 28, Agbayani is 29.  Payton hit .291, Agbayani hit .289.  Jay hit 17 homers in 488 at bats last year, Benny hit 15 in 350.  The fact is that, other than on base percentage, where Agbayani holds a noticeable  advantage, these two players are about as alike as any two players on any team in baseball.  Payton showed good plate discipline in the minors so it's likely that the two will become even more alike on offense.  Neither is a threat to win the MVP, but given that both will be playing full time this year and will be hitting near the heart of the Mets order, 20-25 homers and 80-90 runs scored and driven in are reasonable expectations.

At the corners the Mets have Todd Ziele and Robin Ventura.  Ventura had a down year last year and should rebound, although expecting a repeat of his 1999 career year may be a bit much.  Zeile is consistently average, posting an OPS of around .800 every year since 1995.

The core of the Mets offense is Mike Piazza and Edgardo Alfonzo.  Piazza's offensive prowess is even more impressive when you consider that he's spent his whole career in some of the most extreme pitcher's parks in history - Chaves Ravine, Pro Player Stadium and Shea.  One can only imagine what he might do if he played 81 home games at Coors.  Regardless, he is the best hitting catcher in history.  Alfonzo is also a remarkable hitter.  If it weren't for a preponderance of excellent hitting second baseman in the majors right now - Kent, Alomar, Biggio, Vidro - he might be recognized as a historically good hitter for his position as well.

But even two great hitters can't carry a team and until the Mets realize they can not continue to carry two automatic outs in the line-up, they will never have the offense necessary to win a World Series.  RATING: 60
 

Defense

Ordonez calling card is defense.  Ozzie Smith-spectacular defense.  If he can learn to be a decent hitter, like Ozzie Smith did, then his defense will actually be a plus on this team.  Until then, it merely offsets a portion of the damage he does on offense.  Alfonzo's above average ability give the Mets the best double play combo, at least defensively, in the NL.  Ventura is also well above average.  However, the rest of the Mets' gloves are below average and for a team that gives up as many flyballs as the Mets do, that hurts.  Piazza doesn't do any of the catcher-ly things well - throw out runners, block balls in the dirt, etc - but does have a reputation of calling a good game.  RATING: 55
 

Starting Pitching

Al Leiter pitched brilliantly in Game 5 of the World Series last year.  Unfortunately, his manager left him out on the mound to throw 140+ pitches with one of the best bullpens in the game spitting sunflower seeds on the bench.  And so World Series highlights for the rest of eternity will show Leiter giving up the game- and series-winning hits to Luis Sojo (are you kidding me?!?!) when by all rights that ignominy should have been reserved for someone else.  If it seems like I'm an Al Leiter fan, I am.  He's everything I like in a pitcher and a person.  He's honest, frank and wry-witty.  He's ultra-competitve, but not the point of being an ass about it - unlike another famous New York pitcher - and has one of the best fastballs in the majors.  And if you've ever seen him pitch, you'd see he's infectiously enthusiastic about what he does.  He's rooting, twisting and jumping up and down like a kid, hoping any ball that's hit off him gets caught.  And when it's not, there's a Barney Fife sorta disappointment about him.  Granted, he's not saying, "Aw, gee, Andy", but the feeling is the same.  Until he had an extended spring training conversation with Sandy Koufax a few years ago, he was saying that a lot in his career.  But the wisdom of the master transformed him from a wild hard-throwing health risk - for batter and Leiter alike - into one of the best lefties in the game.

Rick Reed is the number 2 guy behind Leiter.  Like Maddux and Glavine for the Braves, he's a control pitcher who has thrived on the outside corners of the plate.  If the high strike is called instead of the corner, he will be in for a tough season.  However, from the early returns it looks like the umps are calling both the high strike AND the outside strike, which begs the question: who's gonna be able to hit anything if they continue to call it like that?

The number 3 spot will be held down by Glendon Rusch.  Often compared to Tom Glavine because he's a finesse lefty, Rusch is a significantly different pitcher: he doesn't walk as many batters as Glavine and he's more of a flyball pitcher whereas Glavine's strength is getting groundballs.  However, had he gotten Glavine's run support last year (5.64 runs) instead of his NL low 3.73, he might have been much more similar to Glavine in the wins department than his 11-11 record indicated.

The Mets brought in Kevin Appier and Steve Trachsel to replace Hampton and Jones in the rotation.  Neither is nearly as good as Hampton, but both are probably better than Jones.  It's been 4 years since Appier was an above average starter.  He's a couple of years off arm surgery and he's only 33, so there's at least a chance that he'll return to that level.  If he does somehow regain his 1997 form, he will replace Hampton all by himself.  Trachsel has had moments of brilliance over the past couple of years but has yet to turn in a good season since 1996.

With the exception of Leiter, none of the Mets starter throws hard so the high strike should have a negligible effect on their effectiveness.  However, if the umps stop calling the outside strikes, they could get hit pretty hard.  RATING: 55
 

Bullpen

I remember watching Armando Benitez pitch when he was with the Orioles.  He would come into the game, throw the first pitch as hard as he could, then check out the speed on the scoreboard.  If it wasn't close to 100, he'd try to throw the next one even harder.  If it was, you could actually see him relax.  My point is that he wasn't so much concerned about the score on the score board as he was in his own stats.  This is a different Armando Benitez that pitches for the Mets.  Part of the credit should go to former closer, now Benitez' primary set-up man John Franco.  Franco probably couldn't throw a ball through wet tissue, but he gets guys out.  Unlike the old Benitez, the only time he's happy is when the game is over and his team has won.  The new Benitez is a formidable combination of overpowering stuff, and tenacious competitiveness.  Rather than depending almost exclusively on his exceptional fastball to get hitters out, he's not ashamed to use his splitter or his slider.  He's now one of the 5 best closers in baseball.

Franco is still around and still getting hitters out.  It was once said that he would rather kiss a rattlesnake than throw a strike.  But hitters still swing at his offerings so he must be kissing rattlesnakes with some frequency.  Rick White, Turk Wendell and Dennis Cook are the other stalwarts in the Mets formidable pen.  All of them can throw in the low 90s and can close out games if Franco or Benitez are not available.  The Mets added another quality reliever in Donne Wall this winter.  Wall is perhaps the bravest pitcher in baseball, as his fastball doesn't get much faster than 80 mph.  But he throws it with confidence with good location and mixes in one of the best changeups in the game. RATING: 75
 

Management

Bobby Valentine used to be the type of guy that would tell you that he was the best manager in baseball.  Now, he just won't disagree with you if you say it.  All kidding aside, there probably isn't a smarter manager in baseball as far as knowing baseball things.  However what's hard to explain is the more than occasional braincramps, such as the aforementioned overuse of Leiter in a game of that importance.  Does he lose himself in the moment?  Or is he so far ahead of the game in his strategy that he forgets the present?  Who knows.  Also questionable is his continued regular use of Ordonez in the line-up even though Valentine publicly acknowledged that Ordonez needed to produce much more on the offensive side.  GM Steve Phillips is another enigma.  He swung some very good deals to bring Piazza and Leiter to the Mets, signed Ventura so he could move Alfonzo back to his normal position at second base, thus giving him a much more productive infield, and the Hampton deal turned out well reasonably well last year.  On the flip side, he seems comfortable with Ordonez as the shortstop of the present and future and did little to improve right field.  Then there's the apparent power struggle between Phillips and Valentine regarding the team's personnel that reached a boiling point when Phillips fired the entire coaching staff, save Valentine, in mid 1999.  Can 2 strong-willed smart guys co-exist peacefully enough to put the Mets over the top?  We'll see. RATING: 60
 

Conclusion

The Mets are a team at it's peak of performance.  Most of the players are at least a few years away from any age related declines, but are old enough to know most of the tricks of the trade.  They are led by two smart guys.  So what's not to like?  Well, their starting players probably aren't as talented as the Braves, but their bench is much better.  So in a short series they'd have a good chance of finishing on top.  The question then, is can they get to that point? With some of the squirrelly decision making that management has made, it's a very big question.