Minnesota Twins
Last year in my spring preview, I said the Twins would improve dramatically in 2000, largely based on their record in 1999 and their spring training record. I even suggested that they might improve by as many as 13 games in the standings. Every team in recent history - more than 30 of them - that had finished with a below .500 record in one run games and posted a winning percentage the following spring of 100 points better had improved by at least 13 games. Oops. Well, they did improve, but only by 6 games. Just goes to show that trends don't continue indefinitely.
Offense
The Twins were second to last in run scoring last year. But I don't believe it's for a lack of talent. Both David Ortiz and Todd Walker projected to be power hitters capable of hitting 30 homers a year when they were in the minors. Ortiz has been in the majors now for parts of 4 years and has yet to hit his 30th homer. Walker has been around for 5 years and has exactly 30 career big league homers. Marty Cordova burst onto the scene in 1995, hitting .277/.352/.486 with 24 homers and won the Rookie of the Year award. Every year since then, his power numbers have declined. Was he a fluke? I don't think so. I think the problem is with the coaching. The Twins teach hitters that the most important thing is to make contact, even at the expense of hitting for power. So rather than swing for the fences, especially fences that are as inviting as those in the Metrodome, and risk striking out, they'd rather try to push the ball for a base hit. That might not be so bad if emphasized getting on base, but the Twins were second worst in the AL in that category too. Essentially, the Twins braintrust wants to score without getting on base or slugging. Oh, and they were 4th worst in stolen bases too. So we'll probably never know if shortstop Cristian Guzman and second baseman Luis Rivas will become the next Vizquel and Alomar. Nor will we find out if third baseman Corey Koskie will be a perennial .300/30-home run hitter he projected out to be in the minors. First baseman Doug Mientkiewicz' homer hitting heroics in the 2000 Olympics will probably be the last time we refer to him as a power threat. Many people took notice of Matt Lawton's outstanding 2000 season, but will it simply be a precursor to another Marty Cordova-type career? Brian Buchanan and Jacque Jones also showed some promise, but unless the entire organization changes it's offensive philosophy, they will be little more than journeyman 4th outfielders in 5 years, just like former Twin Rich Becker. RATING: 40
Defense
One thing manager Tom Kelley insists on, even at the expense of offense, is good defense. This is ultimately why Todd Walker is no longer a Twin. It's also why David Ortiz has gotten as few at bats as he has and why Ron Coomer got as many as he did. Oddly enough, the Twins employed Jay Canizaro last year at second and he had the lowest rated range of any regular second baseman in the majors. Young Luis Rivas has a reputation of struggling on defense so it should be interesting to see how well he copes with Kelley's carping. Both Koskie and Guzman also rated in the lower half of major league regulars. Each of the Twins outfielders had above average range. RATING: 45
Starting Pitching
The Twins haven't been completely dreadful for one reason: starting pitching. With Brad Radke, Eric Milton, Mark Redman and Joe Mays, they have the makings of a very good young staff. Milton has the highest ceiling of the foursome and, like Mike Mussina was in Baltimore, could win 20 games routinely if ever given decent run support. Matt Kinney dominated the Arizona Fall League last year and will begin the season as the 5th starter. However, it would come as no surprise to see him looked on as the #3 guy by the end of the year. Young JC Romero is the most likely candidate to move to the rotation should anyone get injured or the Twins feel the need to once again pare the payroll of billionaire Carl Polhad's team. RATING: 55
Bullpen
Last year, Kelley employed a closer by committee approach as he really didn't have any clear cut candidates for the stopper. Veteran Bob Wells, Latroy Hawkins and Eddie Guardado all picked up at least 9 saves. Hawkins appears to have distinguished himself enough to have won the mantle of full-time closer. However, his career record isn't particularly inspiring so it's quite possible that the job will again rotate between several pitchers. Regardless, none of the Twins available candidates have shown the potential to become a dominant closer. RATING: 45
Management
Since winning the World Series in 1991 with a good veteran team led by Hall of Famer Kirby Puckett and All-Stars like Kent Hrbek, Chuck Knoblauch, Gary Gaetti, Chili Davis, Jack Morris, Kevin Tapani, Scott Erickson and Rick Aguilera, Tom Kelley and the Twins have done nothing but pare salary. Granted, it's not Kelley's fault that the team keeps losing it's good players to wealthier clubs, but he hasn't really done anything to develop the talent he's had. In fact, when it comes to his hitters, he and his staff have pointed them in the wrong direction. For whatever reason, owner Carl Polhad has refused to allow GM Terry Ryan to spend any money in order to build a team. He's twice tried to blackmail the Twin cities for a new stadium, threatening to move his team to North Carolina unless he got one and twice the voters have told him to stick it in his ear. Ryan has done a decent job of getting talent in return whenever he's had to let a high salaried player go. He's also done an excellent job of drafting talent on a shoestring signing budget, getting potential stars Mike Cuddyer and Mike Restovich for very reasonable sums. It's just unfortunate that, unless there're wholesale changes in the organization's philosophy, that they'll ever see the playoffs. RATING: 40
Conclusion
The Twins might be the anti-Orioles: they play indoors, their owner refuses to spend money and they develop most of their talent. However, these two teams will be a lot alike this year: neither will score many runs and both will very likely finish at the bottom of their respective divisions