Houston Astros
The 2000 season was almost a complete disaster for the Astros. They lost their closer Billy Wagner to an elbow injury, third baseman Ken Caminiti to a wrist injury, second baseman and leadoff hitter Craig Biggio to a knee injury, outfielder Roger Cedeno to a hand injury sliding into first, outfielder Moises Alou for more than a month and to top it all off, their starting pitching got hammered mercilessly in their new ballpark, which projected to favor hitters, but not to the point where it became known as "Coors Light" and "Home-ron Field". Even with all that went wrong, though, there were still signs that pointed to a brighter 2001.
Offense
It's hard to imagine the Astros ever getting as banged up this year as last. Moises Alou will start the season the shelf for the second consecutive year but should be back in the field by late April/early May. Ever since his sterling World Series performance in 1997 in which he was robbed of MVP honors - he batted .321 with 3 homers and 9 RBI but lost out to a pitcher with an ERA of 5.27 - he has been one of the National League's most complete hitters. Even missing as much time as he did last season, he still managed 30 homers and over 100 RBI. He also hit for average (.355) and on base (.416). Despite the adverse effects that the new strikezone will have on many hitters, he's a good bet to survive, perhaps even thrive this year, primarily because he makes contact with over 90% of his swings. That kind of bat control is rare in a slugger of his ability.
Craig Biggio is back and although his base stealing will be curtailed early in the season as he works his way to 100% health, he will most certainly be the same on base and slugging threat he was before last year. The knee may cut down on his doubles totals, but he'll still be among the league leaders by the end of the season.
Caminiti is gone, Chris Truby and perhaps Morgan Ensberg are in at third. This will be the spot where the Astros are weakest in the lineup as neither player has much experience or much discipline at the plate. However, both players have power and might slug their way to league average production.
At short, the 'Stros will field some combination of Jose Vizcaino and sophomore Julio Lugo. Lugo is a talented offensive player in the mold of Biggio. However, questions remain as to whether or not he can handle the defensive side of the game at that position. Vizcaino provides stable defense but is a less than adequate offensive option. The Astros obviously hope that Lugo can handle the job and allow them to use Vizcaino as a late inning defensive replacement.
Richard Hidalgo exploded last year, jumping from 15 homers in 1999 to 44 in 2000. Many pointed to his improved production as being an effect of moving from an extreme pitcher's park like the Astrodome to a hitter's haven like Enron. Logical, but incorrect. Hidalgo actually led the league in road home runs, hitting 28 bombs away from Houston. A more reasonable explanation is that this kind of production should have been expected. Doubles power in the minors often translates to home run power in the majors. As a 19-year old prospect in 1994 at Quad City, along with 12 home runs, Hidalgo hit 47 doubles. There's your burst of power. Expect more of the same.
Cedeno was traded this offseason, in part to free up room in the outfield for two very promising sluggers: Lance Berkman and Daryle Ward. Berkman, who hails from the Houston area as a graduate of Rice University, is the more advanced of the two hitters. He's a switch hitter, although almost all of his success comes from the left side. Last season, he hit .297 with 21 homers in less than 400 at bats. All the more impressive when you consider his on base percentage was .388. Ward has as much power as anyone on the team, as his 20 homers in just 264 at bats will attest. In the minors he showed much better discipline at the plate than his major league .303 on base percentage suggests. If he can find 400+ at bats, it should migrate closer to his .380-ish minor league career on base.
The biggest reason Cedeno was traded, however, was to acquire some leadership behind the plate and the Astros feel confident they did that by bringing Brad Ausmus back to Houston. The story goes that last year's catching tandem of Mitch Meluskey and Tony Eusebio never had the confidence of the pitchers, either as game callers or as run stoppers. Ausmus has a reputation as both. A bonus in the deal is that Ausmus is not a terrible offensive player, posting on base percentages of better than .350 in each of the past 3 seasons and providing doubles power.
The cog that makes the Astros run scoring machine run - 2nd in the NL despite all the injuries - is first baseman Jeff Bagwell. He hits for average and power, gets on base over 40% of the time and steals more than just a couple of bases; he's topped 30 twice in the last 4 years. He's led the NL in scoring the last two years and figures to make it 3 considering his ability and the line-up he hits in.
The Astros are one healthy Ken Caminiti from being the perfect run scoring machine or very close to it. If Lugo can play adequately enough at short to get 500 at bats, it's likely that the Astros will have no position that isn't at least league average in run production and 6 of 8 possible spots that are well above average. RATING: 75 (70 if Vizcaino gets the majority of ABs at short)
Defense
Both Bagwell and Biggio are gold glove caliber fielders, although with his knee situation, Biggio may have lost some range. Ausmus reputation as a superior defender is deserved as he is above average in every category. Hidalgo is a very good centerfielder, with great range and a great arm. Truby is probably average. Alou, Berkman and Ward are below average defenders in both range and arm strength, but left and right fielders average a combined 12% of all chances, so their deficiencies aren't as damaging as an inferior shortstop might be. Which brings me to Lugo. His range in limited play last year would have ranked among the worst in baseball and he was on pace to commit nearly 30 errors had he been given regular playing time. Not a good combination. Vizcaino is a better option in this respect, but would definitely have a negative effect on the offense. Tough call for manager Larry Dierker. RATING: 55
Starting Pitching
Jose Lima surprised everyone in 1998, winning 16 games and posting a decent 3.70 ERA after performing in relative obscurity the previous 4 years in Detroit (9-22 with an ERA over 6?... I'd say that's obscurity). He further surprised everyone by proving that 1998 wasn't a fluke by winning 21 games in 1999 and an even better ERA of 3.58. So what did he do in 2000? Surprised everyone again, of course. This time, though it was in the opposite direction. Jose Lima completely fell apart in 2000, losing 16 games, posting an ERA of 6.65 and giving up a National League record 48 homers. So which is the real Jose Lima? I'm sure he'll surprise us again this year, but my guess is that we'll see something closer to his 1998 season than his 2000. I think this for two reasons: 1) he knows he can't do worse than last year so what does he have to lose and 2) I do believe that if a pitcher has confidence in the guy he's throwing to, whether that confidence is due to perception, experience or some statistical proof, that the pitcher will pitch with more confidence. And that is more than half the battle in successful pitching.
Scott Elarton led the Astros winning 17 games for them. He spent a good portion of the first half recovering from shoulder surgery, but seemed to come on strong after the break, winning 11 decisions after June. And while his 4.08 ERA second half ERA is comforting to Astros brass and fans, his September implosion should be cause for some concern. Also of concern should be Dierker's inexplicable handling of a young pitcher (Elarton is 25 this season) coming off shoulder surgery, allowing him to average over 115 pitches a start in August and September, punctuated by two consecutive 130+ pitch starts at the end of August/beginning of September. It's inexplicable because Dierker to that point had been extremely careful with young pitchers and Elarton wasn't that far removed from surgery. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Elarton's effectiveness this year significantly decreased from last year's performance.
In addition to Elarton, the Astros will be starting two other young pitchers with plenty of upside: Octavio Dotel and Wade Miller. Dotel can be overpowering at times with a fastball in the mid-90s. He acted as Houston's closer when Wagner went down last season with considerable success. His fortunes as a starter have been much more mixed, as his command of a third pitch is iffy at best. Miller, on the other hand, seems perfectly suited for starting. He has an above average fastball and command of two good breaking pitches. Many, including Dierker, are predicting big things for him in the very near future.
Shane Reynolds, who's acted as an ersatz ace of the staff for the past 4 years, will start the season on the DL recovering from knee surgery and back troubles. He's a solid middle of the rotation guy who's capable of an occasional gem. Until he comes back, journeyman Kent Bottenfield will get some starts. Depending on how well he pitches, either he or Dotel could be moved to the bullpen. The key to the rotation is Elarton's health. If his late season and spring training struggles were a mere bump in the road, the Astros will have a solid rotation. If however, they are a symptom of a more dire issue, then the Astros will be heavily dependent on 2 inexperienced young pitchers, a journeyman and a wild card. RATING: 60 (50 if Elarton's arm needs more medical attention)
Bullpen
Before last season, Billy Wagner was one of the most formidable closers in major league history. For three consecutive years, he broke the strikeout per inning record and posted ERAs of 2.85, 2.70 and 1.57. But late in the 1999 season, he felt a twinge in his elbow that ultimately turned out to be a ligament tear. Unfortunately he didn't have it tended to until ineffectiveness forced him to the shelf in June of last season. This season he should be near 100% to start the season, which is not good news for opposing NL hitters. Even more bad news for the NL is that Houston bolstered it's relief corps by adding Mike Jackson and Doug Brocail, both regarded with high esteem as set-up men. Also back is hard-throwing Jay Powell. If Dotel gets moved back to the pen when Reynolds returns, the Astros will have 5 pitchers who can throw 94 mph and above. Given the taller strikezone, that just doesn't seem fair. RATING: 70
Management
After Terry Collins was fired as manager, Larry Dierker came in and promptly guided the Astros to 3 straight division titles. During those three years, he dealt with adversity, including his own frightening seizure in 1999, but nothing on a team level like what he faced in 2000. Still his team battled valiantly against adversity, posting one of the best win-loss records in the second half of last season. In short, with the possible exception of his handling of Elarton last year, Dierker has been brilliant. GM Glenn Hunsicker's record has been less sterling. He did get good talent for Mike Hampton and in the process got out from under Derek Bell's contract. However, he does seem to give up an awful lot of talent for what he gets in return as evidenced in his Randy Johnson trade of 1998. Yes, he got the Unit, but he gave up potential ace Freddie Garcia and shortstop Carlos Guillen, both of whom would address important needs for the Astros this year. RATING: 60
Conclusion
With Dierker at the helm and only a normal amount of injuries, the Astros are a strong candidate to reclaim their crown as division champs. If Elarton is OK, they will be the favorites. If not, they could be looking up at the Cardinals for the second consecutive year.