Florida Marlins
Had it not been for the petulance of former owner Wayne Huizenga, we'd be talking about the Marlins rather than the Yankees as the great current baseball dynasty. Weird. The 1997 Marlins won the World Series with a team that included Gary Sheffield, Moises Alou, Kevin Brown, Al Leiter, Livan Hernandez, Robb Nen, Matt Mantei, Charles Johnson and Edgar Renteria, each of whom is among the top players in baseball at his respective position. Now add Luis Castillo and Cliff Floyd to the equation, both of whom were with the team and emerged in subsequent seasons as very productive players. Imagine. All this was lost because Wayne Huizenga threw a tantrum because he couldn't get a new ballpark. Had Joe Robbie/Pro Player stadium been an antiquated cookie cutter stadium from the early 70s, there might be some defense for his actions. But the Marlins' home stadium was not yet 10 years old in 1997. Unbelievable.
As it stands, the Marlins are just now starting to show some returns from their 1998 fire sale.
Offense
The Marlins hitting attack is led by second baseman Luis Castillo. Castillo turned in a remarkable year last season in that he batted .334 in 539 at bats, but only had 17 RBI. One has to go back to the days of Enzo Hernandez - 12 RBI in 1971 - to find a hitting line so lackluster in driving in runners. Even then, Hernandez hit a paltry .222 that year. It's just one of those weird things that happen in baseball. Also on the downside is the 22 times Castillo got caught stealing. Yes, he stole 62 bases but a stealing percentage of 74% is barely acceptable in an era where home runs dominate. On the plus side, he did get on base nearly 42% of the time and at age 25, that should only get better. However, it would be nice to see more than 22 extra base hits; that's just weak.
Charles Johnson returned to the Fish after stays in LA, Baltimore and Chicago's South Side. Johnson's batting skills have made some strides toward catching up to his incredible defensive skills since 1997. He's always had good power, averaging nearly 20 homers a year before last season's 31 dinger outburst. What has improved ever so slightly was his selectiveness at the plate. While he'll add another powerful bat to the line-up, his biggest contribution will still be behind the plate.
Newly acquired Eric Owens will take over in right field. He, along with starter Matt Clement, were traded to the Marlins for their right fielder from last year, Mark Kotsay. Owens has more speed than Kotsay, but his power and on base are substantially inferior. I'm sure he'll become a fan favorite, as he was in San Diego, for his "giving 110%" style of play. Unfortunately, the results probably won't be as exciting. The quicker the Marlins can get outfield prospect Abraham Nunez to the majors, the better off they'll be.
Third baseman Mike Lowell spent much of 1999 recovering from testicular cancer. Fully healthy in 2000, he showed some of the promise that made him a highly regarded prospect just a few years earlier. While Lowell will never be in the Jones/Rolen class of hitting third basemen, he's good enough to be a solid producer for the next 5-10 years.
This year will be a make or break year for shortstop Alex Gonzales. Early returns are positive that he has learned not to swing at pitches in the other batters' box. Over the past 2 years he has walked a grand total of 28 times in nearly a thousand plate appearances. Unless he can improve on that total dramatically, it won't matter how good he is defensively. With a career .239 batting average; he will be replaced by lesser lights (at least in the field) like Dave Berg.
The Marlins feature two all-or-nothing sluggers in centerfielder Preston Wilson and first baseman Derrek Lee. Between them, they hit 59 homers and drove in 191 runs. They also struck out a combined 310 times - Wilson led the league with 187, Lee added 123 in a part-time role - and walked just 118. While the high strike shouldn't mean any more strikeouts, it will probably foment a drop in on base percentage, as they'll get even fewer walks, and a drop in batting average. Fortunately for both of them, Castillo and left fielder Cliff Floyd will hit before them, giving plenty of RBI opportunities and making their perceived value artificially high.
Cliff Floyd will win the NL MVP award in 2001. He's basically Larry Walker without the MVP year. Floyd and Walker have an almost identical career OPS (.834 to .832) at Floyd's age after adjusting for their home ballparks. When he was in the minors, scouts referred to him as a "Willie McCovey with speed". Both Willie and Larry won MVPs. Like Walker, Floyd's biggest problem has been remaining healthy. Other than his terrible wrist injury in 1995, most of his injuries have been due to trying to play like Eric Owens does. Unfortunately for Floyd, who's incredibly strong, his body structure simply can't withstand that kind of stress on an everyday basis. However, if he plays at a slightly lower intensity, he should be able to avoid many of the injuries that have plagued him in the past. With his talent, 80% is enough to have a fabulous year. Last year, he had 3 relatively healthy months: May, June and September; combined, he hit .328 with 16 homers and 67 RBI and an on base of .395. He just needs to stay healthy.
Even if Floyd manages to harness his incredible talent, and even with all the home runs they might hit, it's questionable whether the Marlins can score runs consistently enough to win their very tough division. Unlike the Expos or the Phillies, they just don't have enough guys to get on base consistently. RATING: 50
Defense
The Marlins are one of the 2 or 3 best teams defensively in the NL. Gonzales and Castillo are two of the best in the field. Like Ivan Rodriguez in the AL, Johnson simply shuts down the opposing running game and no one is better at blocking wild pitches. With him behind the plate, Florida's young pitching staff will gain confidence that no matter what they throw, it won't go to the backstop. To get an idea of how good he is at this skill, in 1997, he allowed only 1 passed ball. That's an incredible feat in and of itself, but he did it catching guys like Kevin Brown and Al Leiter, whose pitches are amongst the most lively as far as movement in baseball. Both Lowell and Lee are average to above average fielders. The outfield has some weaknesses - Floyd doesn't have a particularly strong arm in left, both Wilson and Owens are prone to taking poor routes to flyballs and Owens doesn't have the arm for anywhere but left - but each is fast enough to run down mistakes. RATING: 65
Starting Pitching
Moreso than the Expos, the Marlins have some talented young starting pitchers. Ryan Dempster emerged as the staff ace last year, winning 14 games and striking out over 200 batters. However, he threw a lot of pitches last year - 10th most in the majors, topping 120 pitches on 5 different occasions - and at age 24, that can't be good. Maybe manager John Boles will be more sensible with him this year. Behind Dempster will be Matt Clement. Clement has been compared to a young Kevin Brown because of his similar repertoire and demeanor on the mound. However, he has struggled with controlling his virtually unhittable sinking fastball the past 2 years, walking over 200 batters in that span. Giving him a taller strikezone will allow him to start it higher in the zone, giving him a better chance to throw strikes. Kotsay might develop into a fine right fielder for the Padres, but they will regret trading Clement as he is ready and capable of becoming a top tier starter. Like Dempster and Clement, Brad Penny and AJ Burnett are both the products of trades the Marlins have swung since 1997. Penny showed amazing control in the minors for someone with his stuff. Burnett simply has amazing stuff. Both guys posted statistics in the minors that were more like Nintendo than real life. In 1998, Penny struck out 207 in 164 innings in A-ball, while walking just 35. That same year, Burnett struck out 186 in 119 innings while walking 45 at the same level. While it's a long shot that they'll ever post those kind of numbers in the big leagues, they both have the talent to be All-Star pitchers and this year's strikezone change should help them toward that end. Burnett will begin the season on the DL after breaking a bone in his plant foot in spring training. Jason Grilli, another product of the fire sale, will take his place until he returns. RATING: 55 (talent-wise: 70)
Bullpen
The Marlins' bullpen looked great last year as closer Antonio Alfonseca led the NL in saves and the Marlins had one of the best records in one-run games of any team in baseball. However, not all is as it seems. Alfonseca posted a very high 4.24 ERA pitching in a good pitcher's park. The fact that he allowed 82 hits and walked an additional 24 batters in just 70 innings supports his high ERA much more than his league leading save total. While set-up man Dan Miceli was strong in support, his 4.25 ERA was not exactly scintillating. Lefty Armando Almanza and young Braden Looper both have the overpowering fastballs to close, but both still walk way too many hitters. The high strike should help them in the respect and might be just the tonic they need to become elite relievers. Of course, there's always the chance that they are simply too wild, like Mitch Williams was, for even a change in the strikezone to help. One time All-Star Ricky Bones will serve as the swingman in the bullpen. There's promise in this bullpen, but this could just as easily become a weakness. RATING: 50
Management
John Boles began his career with the Marlins the team's vice president of player development. Last year I did a survey of managers and GMs to find out how many had played baseball at any level. John Boles was the only one I could not find any playing experience above little league. Even so, he has been very successful winning the confidence of his players and doing a nice job of playing the strategy game. His only flaw so far, and it's potentially a big one, has been the handling of young pitchers. In his defense, however, Dempster and Livan hernandez are the only ones he has really pushed with respect to pitch counts. He's been reasonably careful with Penny and Burnett, guys who have much higher upsides. There will come a day when people simply stop trading with GM Dave Dombrowski. He's just too good at this game. Even in Montreal, he was swinging great deals for his team. But in Florida, he has almost turned it into an art form. While he's given up some great talent, he has gotten a lot in return - he got Penny and Nunez for Mantei, Clement for Kotsay, Lowell for Ed Yarnall, who is now playing in Japan, and Burnett for Leiter. RATING: 70
Conclusion
Like the Expos, the Marlins are just one or two pieces from having terrific teams. The Expos are just a little light on starting pitching, whereas the Marlins are just a tad light on offense (another guy who gets on base) and in the bullpen. The pieces might already be there in the organization, just not readily apparent. Perhaps Pablo Ozuna, a fine infielder in AAA for the Marlins or Nunez can make the leap to the bigs and provide that boost. Maybe hard-throwing Vladimir Nunez can make the necessary adjustments to being a fine AAA pitcher to becoming a good major league pitcher. Or maybe Looper or Almanza can step forward. But the Marlins are not there yet.