Detroit Tigers
Three years ago, the Tigers assembled a group of highly-touted young hitters that were supposed to lead them past the Indians for the Central Division crown. To date, that success has yet to materialize for a number of reasons. First, the Tigers haven't developed or acquired a complementary pitching staff to hold the opposition scoring at bay. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the Tigers vaunted hitting attack has failed in an important aspect of scoring runs: getting on base. However, this offseason, GM Randy Smith appears to have taken notice of the Yankees and A's models for successful offense and traded for a couple of quality hitters who understand the importance of getting good pitches to hit. How well that translates into wins will probably depend on how well his pitching holds up.
Offense
Since the last expansion in 1998, only Tampa Bay and Minnesota have scored fewer runs in the AL than the Tigers. The major problem has been getting runners on base. It's great to have a team with a bunch home run sluggers like Bobby Higginson, Tony Clark, Damian Easley, Juan Gonzales and Dean Palmer, but if you don't have anyone getting on base ahead of them, or if they themselves don't get on base a whole lot, then you're gonna be faced with having to win a lot of games with solo homers. And that simply doesn't happen much. So this offseason, outfielder Roger Cedeno and catcher Mitch Meluskey were brought in from Houston to change that. Cedeno spent much of last season on the DL after he broke his hand sliding headfirst into first base. He's never been given a complete season of at bats but he certainly has the potential to get on base 40% of the time and steal 70 bases with a high percentage of success as a full season leadoff hitter. I emphasize the 'high percentage of success' when mentioning a player with good base stealing skills because avoiding getting caught is statistically more important than getting the extra base. The break even level - the percentage at which you are helping your team by stealing more than you are hurting your team by getting caught - is usually between 70% and 75%, depending on how much scoring league-wide is up or down. Cedeno's career stolen base percentage is 78%, comfortably in the 'helping your team' category. Meluskey is a very good hitter for a catcher. He's a switch hitter, but he definitely favors batting from the left side, hitting 100 points better in batting average and all of his home runs from that side. As importantly, he had a .401 on-base percentage last year. With Gonzales gone, Meluskey's presence in the middle of the order will be key to their run scoring fortunes. Damian Easley and Deivi Cruz comprise the middle infield. Both possess better than average power for their position and with Easley being the better overall hitter getting on base more often. Bobby Higginson is the best of the Tigers' outfield hitters, proving critics wrong about his ability with a career year in 2000 after a disastrous 1999. In 2000, Higginson topped the .900 OPS mark, a standard for the game's elite hitters. Dean Palmer and Tony Clark will man the corners, providing tape measure power and a few walks. Centerfield will be manned by young phenom Juan Encarnacion. Encarnacion has blazing speed and excellent power potential but, like many of the other graduates of the Tiger farm system, poor strikezone judgment. Tiger's hitting coach Bill Madlock was a heckuva hitter in his day, walking more than he struck out on his way to winning 4 batting titles. If he can teach these hitters to be more disciplined at the plate, the Tigers have some run scoring potential. RATING: 50 (65 if Madlock can teach them discipline)
Defense
Defensively, the Tigers don't have any standouts, except for Bobby Higginson, who is one of the best fielding left fielders in the game. On the downside, third baseman Dean Palmer has never rated very well defensively - second worst in the majors last year - and Mitch Meluskey rated as one of the lowest in the majors last year in fielding percentage, catcher's ERA and throwing runners out. The rest of the team hovers around average with the glove. RATING: 45
Starting Pitching
Previous Tiger championship teams have been led by their starting pitchers: Jack Morris, Denny McLain, Mickey Lolich, Hal Newhouser. If this team hopes to contend, they will have to get similar performances from young pitchers like Jeff Weaver and Seth Greisinger, and unheralded vets like Steve Sparks, Dave Mlicki, Brian Moehler and Chris Holt. Weaver has been designated as the ace of the staff by default, but has shown that the label is altogether unmerited. His 4.16 ERA as a starter last season was good for 10th best in the AL and his 4.01 ERA in the second half gives more reason for optimism. Sparks, a knuckleballer, was a revelation for the Tigers, pitching brilliantly for them in the second half with a 3.57 ERA after the break. Chris Holt was labeled in Houston as a tough luck pitcher, pitching just well enough to lose. However, he was never really given a regular chance at the rotation, either due to injuries or falling favor of the front office. In Detroit, he'll be given every opportunity to prove that his reputation was not earned. Brian Moehler has been a league average starter for the past 4 years. There's not much reason to expect more or less from him. Like Moehler, Dave Mlicki has been quite average the last few years, but there is some hope he can do better. From 1995-1997 he was a very good starter for the Mets and this spring he has pitched brilliantly. Seth Greisinger appears to be at least a year away from making an impact for this team. The Tigers have a number of veteran pitchers, some of whom are capable of being above average. If Weaver can take the next step toward ace status, the Tigers will have a fairly competitive starting corps. RATING: 55
Bullpen
Todd Jones led the AL in saves last year and still gets no respect. It's a dilemma he's faced his entire career largely because he's always been the guy saving a place for the next great closer. In Houston, he closed for one and a half season until Billy Wagner took over the role. In Detroit, he is keeping the spot warm for Matt Anderson. Anderson, he of the 100-mph fastball, has had some difficulty finding the strikezone with regularity. This season's implementation of the high strike should help him find the control he needs to realize his incredible potential. In the meantime, Jones will continue to use his 4-pitch repertoire to close out Tiger wins with startling efficiency. Over the past 4 years, Jones has blown just 18 saves in 149 opportunities, a better success rate (89.2%) than the more heralded Mariano Rivera's (88.8%) over that same period. Danny Patterson, who was involved in the deal that brought Juan Gonzales to the Tigers before last season, and CJ Nitkowski, who has been traded for both David Wells and Todd Jones, are the most notable of the other Tiger relievers. With a great spring so far, Matt Perisho is restoring some of the luster to a once promising career. RATING: 55
Management
Manager Phil Garner played for the championship Pirate teams of the 70's and some fine Astro's teams in the 80's. Because of this, he is often viewed as a winner. However, as a manager, he has yet to turn a profit. While it's true that he never had an abundance of talent in Milwaukee, only once did he even skipper a winning team. He also hasn't had much of a positive record in keeping pitchers healthy with Jeff D'Amico, Cal Eldred and Ben McDonald all going under the knife during his tenure. GM Randy Smith hasn't fared much better. While GM of the Padres he authored one of the worst deals in major league history by giving up Fred McGriff for Melvin Nieves, Donnie Elliott and Vince Moore. To his credit, he did acquire Trevor Hoffman in another trade in that fire sale summer. Unfortunately, under the orders of utterly clueless owner Tom Werner - who gave us the Roseanne Barr rendition of the National Anthem - he gave up Gary Sheffield to get him. Smith's tenure in the Motown hasn't been much better. RATING: 40
Conclusion
The Motor City Kitties have the beginnings of a competitive team. They have a tool-loaded offense and some promising young pitching. All they really need is some good coaching and a couple of solid complimentary players. Unfortunately, with the possible exception of Madlock, they're unlikely to get either in the near future.