Cincinnati Reds
 

When the Reds acquired Ken Griffey Jr before last season, the general consensus was that they were now the favorites in the Central.  After all, a team that had just won 95 games, finishing one game behind the Astros for the title, had acquired the best player in baseball.  However, those prognostications did not take into account the effect of losing centerfielder Mike Cameron and pitcher Brett Tomko, who had contributed to that 95 win total, just not as measurably as Griffey might.  What also wasn't taken into account was the unbelievably good year the Reds staff had in 1999, particularly the bullpen.  Odds were than they would not reach those levels again.  The Reds did manage to finish second in the division once again.  This time, though, it was 10 games back.
 

Offense

The offense was hurt by 2 key losses early in the season.  However, these two players weren't out on the DL.  They simply weren't themselves.  Ken Griffey Jr has been one of 5 best players in baseball for almost a decade.  But last year was his first in the National League.  Many players struggle after a change like that.  It takes a while to learn each new pitcher's tendencies and Griffey had the additional pressure of coming in as the savior of Cincinnati and the small market way of life.  That pressure was suffocating through the first half of the season.  Despite that, Griffey managed to post very respectable numbers in every category but one: batting average.  But because his batting average was so low (.238 up to the break), he was constantly faced with the question, "what's wrong with Griffey"?  No one bothered with the fact that he hit 28 homers and drove in over 70 runs in half a season and that he was walking as often as he was striking out.  They wanted to see batting average.  So he gave it to them in the second half, hitting .317 the rest of the way.  The irony is that he was not significantly more productive in the second half (OPS of .952) than he was in the first (OPS of .936).  There won't be any such nonsense this year; Griffey will be Griffey.

The other hitter who was noticeably absent was first baseman Sean Casey.  Casey was coming off  brilliant first full year in the majors in 1999, hitting .332 with 25 homers and almost a hundred driven in.  But he caught a bad break, literally, in spring training, when one of his  thumbs was broken by a pitch.  Hitters react to thumb injuries in a number of ways, but almost all of them lose power in their swing for several months even after the thumb is billed as "healed".  It makes sense.  The thumb is still tender and weak, making it difficult to grip.  Try holding a bat with your thumb off the handle and see how well you can control the bat when you swing hard.  But please, do it outside, away from any windows.  Anyway, Casey struggled for the first few months of the season.  But as the thumb increasingly got better, so did his swing.  In the second half, the real Casey finally showed up, hitting .372 with 15 homers. As with Griffey, this year Casey will be Casey.

Another injury that didn't help the situation was a season ending knee injury to third baseman Aaron Boone.  Boone was having a solid year, reminiscent of Chris Sabo's exploits in a Reds uni in their 1990 championship season.  Boone was hitting homers, hitting for average, stealing bases, showcasing a smorgasbord of skills.  While he won't ever be a star, Boone is one of those above average players that all championship teams have in abundance; guys who quietly help their teams win.

The Reds also suffered injuries at catcher when Ed Taubensee went down with back spasms.  While he was out, the Reds took a long look at young Jason LaRue.  The Reds like him more for his defensive skills; a modicum of power is about LaRue's only offensive asset.  Kelly Stinnett was brought in to be the offensive-minded catcher, but he really doesn't offer any more than LaRue.

The Reds have a trio of solid hitters in the outfield: Michael Tucker, Dmitri Young and Alex Ochoa.  Tucker, who's from my brother-in-law's home town of Chase City, Virginia, does many things well - hits for decent power, gets on base, steals bases.  The one thing he does not do well at all is hit lefties.  He has a career batting average of .238 against them.  Dmitri Young has no such troubles.  He hits everything and everyone.  He hasn't developed the power that many predicted for him in the minors, but 20 bombs and 40 doubles a year is still pretty solid.  Like Young, big things were forecast for Alex Ochoa when he was a minor league prospect.  But 4 stops later on the major league game of musical chairs, Ochoa still hadn't gotten a full season's chance to show it.  After Dante Bichette was traded, the Reds gave Ochoa his chance and he didn't disappoint, hitting nearly .340 with 7 homers and 28 RBI in the month of September.  The Reds will use a rotation of sorts with these three, with Ochoa and Young being the regulars and Tucker ably giving everyone a day off to stay fresh.

The key as to whether the Reds will have a very good offense or just a decent one this year comes is their middle infield.  Shortstop Barry Larkin is a few year removed from his MVP year and at 37, the years of playing on Cincinnati's hard turf have taken their toll.  However, Cinergy Field has switched to grass this season and Larkin's skills haven't shown any significant decline over the past 4 years.  If he can stay healthy, the Reds will have a great lead-off hitter, despite his age.   Second baseman Pokey Reese is the other key.  Reese won high praise for his offense two years ago as he provided a nice combination of power and speed.  But his numbers in '99 camouflaged a serious lack of plate discipline and when his average fell in 2000, that flaw was exposed.  If Reese can learn from his double play partner to draw more walks, the Reds will have effective offense at the bottom of the line-up to keep innings going.  With solid production out of 7 of 8 spots in the line-up, including two huge run producers, the Reds could be as formidable as the Astros.  RATING: 65
 

Defense

The Reds defense has the reputation as being the best in the NL and there's certainly an argument to be made for it.  Pokey Reese was rated as the 4th best regular second baseman in the majors last year as far as range is concerned.  Griffey and Boone were in the top half.  If Ochoa performs as well in a regular role as he did in a part time role, he'll be the second best right fielder in the game.  Casey is solid at first and LaRue's reputation as a solid backstop looks founded.  However, Dmitri Young isn't particularly gifted as a fielder and whether it was due to age or injury, Barry Larkin ranked near the bottom in range last year.  Tucker makes a slightly above average defensive replacement.  Taken as a sum, the Reds won't hurt themselves on D, and if Larkin can stay fresher on grass, they will probably be good enough to camouflage the problems in the rotation.
 

Starting Pitching

Pete Harnisch was a legitimate "ace" in the mid 90's, but after several bouts with arm troubles since, he's pretty much limited to "quality innings eater" these days.  Osvaldo Fernandez and Elmer Dessens are two more of GM Jim Bowden's reclamation projects, but neither figure to come close to matching the Cardinals, Astros or Cubs #2 and 3 starters in quality starts.   Rob Bell has the talent to become the ace of the staff, but as long as he keeps giving up homers at an alarming rate, he won't be much more than a talented 4th starter.  Scott Williamson pitched very well down the stretch last year after being moved into the rotation.  But his spring and season ended early when it was determined he had a tear in his elbow that required surgery.  His injury is similar to that which Billy Wagner suffered last year.  Even if he comes back next year, there's no guarantee that Boone will recognize that he's far more useful as a starter than he is as a reliever.  Because of Williamson's injury, Chris Reitsma, who came over from Boston in exchange for Dante Bichette, will get an extended look in the rotation.  He looked dominating in spring training, but the list of pitchers successfully jumping from AA to the majors is a brief one.  RATING: 45
 

Bullpen

In 1999, the bullpen carried the Reds to a one game playoff against the Mets.  In that game, it was painfully obvious that the Reds rotation (represented by Steve Parris) was not playoff caliber. Little has changed in 2 years.  The bad news is that the bullpen may be headed in the same direction.  Closer Danny Graves is still the man at the end, but last year he gave up way too many baserunners to remain an effective closer.  If he doesn't stem the tide of walks and hits, the Reds will be looking for another closer by June.  However, if last year is merely an aberration and performs as he did in 1999, he is one of the more durable closers in the game, capable of going more than an inning frequently.  As an extreme groundball pitcher, he's induces plenty of inning- and game-ending double plays.  Accompanying Graves in the pen are hard throwing John Reidling and Mark Wohlers.  Both guys have the temperament and a good fastball for closing.  Dennys Reyes might end up in the rotation, but will start the year as the primary lefty reliever.  His minor league record indicates he might be an above average starter if given the chance, but it's unlikely that his potential will be recognized.  Scott Sullivan will again be called upon to deliver more than 100 innings of relief, a superhuman amount for a normal pitcher, but something he has done without adverse effect for 3 consecutive years.  RATING: 60
 
 

Management

Whenever I see a Reds game, Bob Boone invariably reminds me of Jon Lovitz' Master Thespian: "I'm managing!".  If Boone managed the '27 Yankees, he'd hit and run with Ruth then suicide squeeze with Gehrig.  Royals fans will remember how he "handled" a young Johnny Damon, setting his development back a couple of years with his line-up maneuverings.  He has a obsession with "managing" in a game and his track record with young pitchers is reason for serious concern, both short and long term.  The actual reason he got the job after Jack McKeon was let go was that he was the cheapest candidate available.  No lie.  The only possible positive here is that Don Gullett is still the pitching coach.  Since his hiring in 1993, Gullett has never allowed a pitcher younger than 26 throw more than 120 pitches in any start.  It wouldn't be at all surprising that he is that way due to the probability that his own career was shortened by arm problems caused by overuse at a young age.  GM Jim Bowden has an amazing knack for getting tremendous value out of reclamation projects.  He got good to great years from Jeff Brantley, Kevin Mitchell, Eric Davis, Pete Schourek and many others when no one else would give these guys much more than a birthday card.  For this reason, Ruben Rivera is destined to finally fulfill his minor league projections and become the next Mickey Mantle.  OK, maybe not.  RATING: 40 (at least 55 with anyone other than Boone)
 

Conclusion

The Reds have several excellent prospects in Austin Kearns, Adam Dunn and Jackson Melian on the way.  Unless they change managers, they won't make a difference.  Bowden can find all the unpolished gems he wants, but as long as Boone is pulling the wrong strings, they won't win.