Chicago Cubs
 

In 1998, Kerry Wood burst on the scene with a near perfect, 20 strikeout performance in his 5th major league start that ignited the Cubs on a run toward a wild card berth.  Since that magical summer, the Cubs haven't been within satellite transmission range of the playoffs, finishing last in the Central division the past 2 years by a combined 60 games.  However, a number of things have happened in the past 8 months that should give the Cubs' faithful more than opening day sunny optimism that they will not only escape the basement, but that they will contend for the division in the near future.
 

Offense

Even with Sammy Sosa, the Cubs manage to score just 764 runs, good for 11th in the National League.  It certainly wasn't Sosa's fault.  He followed up 2 consecutive 60+ homer seasons with a 50 homer season, driving in 138 runners.  In addition he established career highs in batting average (.320) and on base (.406).  It's interesting to note that Sosa's career has slipped under the radar of the Hall-of-Fame watch, but coming into this season he had 386 career home runs.  Conceivably, he could finish his career with 700 home runs, especially given the  homer-happy environment in which he currently plays.  Say what you will about McGwire and Bonds, but when all is said and done, Sosa will likely hold the edge in career homers of the three.

Shortstop Ricky Gutierrez was somewhat of a revelation for the Cubs last season.  They got him for his defense but he posted career bests in on base (.375) and slugging (.401), both marks being good for a National League shortstop

The Cubs' run scoring woes weren't due to second baseman Eric Young either.  Young hit .297, slugged nearly .400 and got on base nearly 37% of the time.  More impressively, once he got on base, he stole 54 bases while getting caught just 7 times, one of the greatest base stealing performances in the history of the game.  In fact, only Jerry Mumphery, Tim Raines, Eric Davis, Tony Womack and Barry Larkin have stolen at least 50 bases in a season with a better percentage of success.  Even with as good as season as he had, he only scored 98 runs.  Which means the rest of the Cubs offense was... not good.

The front office began addressing this issue in the second half by trading for outfielder Rondell White.  White's swing is reminiscent of a young Andre Dawson, though he doesn't get quite the same result.  However, any time your team can acquire a player capable of .500 slugging and .375 on base... well, that'd be a step in the right direction.  The knock against White is that he gets injured easily, but playing most of his games on grass, as opposed to the hard turf in Montreal will go a long way toward keeping him on the field and off of the trainer's table.

The Cubs further advanced their chances this offseason by acquiring third baseman Bill Mueller and catcher Todd Hundley.  Mueller is primarily known for quality glovework, but he brings a .370 career on base percentage to the #2 spot in the order behind Young and a near-90% contact rate suited for the hit-and-run strategy that manager Don Baylor loves to employ.  Hundley brings a 100 point advantage in career OPS over incumbent Joe Girardi.  But that probably understates Hundley's offensive advantage as last year he posted an OPS in excess of .900 for the 3rd time in his career.

The Cubs also brought in Matt Stairs and Ron Coomer to platoon at first for Mark Grace, who left via free agency.  This was a puzzling move considering the Cubs had 2 or 3 good young hitters in the minors who merited a full-time shot at the position.  Stairs offers the more potent bat of the two, Coomer the better glove.  However, Julio Zuleta hit .311 with 26 homers in AAA so it's hard to understand how Stairs or Coomer would be that much better.  Eric Hinske, who was traded for reliever Mike Fyhrie this spring, might also have been an option.  A long shot option might have been to promote Hee Seop Choi from AA.  Choi is one of 10 best hitters in the minors and projects to be an excellent major league hitter along the lines of a former Cub first baseman, Raphael Palmeiro.  However, it's unlikely he would have exceeded what Zuleta could produce this year.  As it stands, unless Stairs returns to his 1998 form, the Cubs will pay millions for basically the same production they could have gotten for major league minimum.  Some things never change with the Cubs.

The Cubs have several options in center until uber-prospect Corey Patterson proves he's ready.  The "veteran" option is Damon Buford who established a career high of 15 homers last year.  Of course, his .324 on base percentage undermines the value of those 15 homers.  Another option is Gary Matthews Jr.  As you might imagine, the son of one of the best outfielders of his generation is a good defensive player.  His bat though, like Buford's, is somewhat suspect.  A dark horse in this race is Roosevelt Brown.  Brown isn't a good fielder and that will probably keep him from getting a significant number of at bats, but offensively Brown looks promising, slugging near .500 and getting on base better than .380 last season in AAA.

If Brown does eventually win an outfield job and either Stairs drinks from the Fountain of Youth or Julio Zuleta kicks down the door, the Cubs could conceivably score 100 more runs than last year.  In all likelihood, they will finish somewhere in the middle of the pack.  RATING: 50
 

Defense

Depending on who's playing, the Cubs can be anywhere from an average club to an above average club defensively.  With Matthews, Jr in center field, their regular corps makes them an above average club.  Young and Mueller both rate about average in range,  Gutierrez range is below average but he's very sure handed and rarely makes bad throws.   Both White and Sosa have good range.  Sosa has a very good arm, White's is rather average.  Girardi is a solid defensive catcher.  Hundley once had that reputation but has struggled with that aspect of the game, especially throwing out runners, ever since his shoulder surgery in 1998.  Coomer is a good defender at first, having played third base for a good portion of his career.  Stairs should be passable.  RATING: 50
 

Starting Pitching

Kerry Wood is the key to the Cubs chances of competing.  Last season, just over a year removed from Tommy John surgery, he held National League batters to a .226 average, good for 7th lowest in the majors.  He achieved this without his trademark curve ball and without his old velocity, which returned toward the end of the season.  He learned a passable change-up and to spot his fastball better.  This year, he'll return re-incorporate the curve into his repertoire, giving him a formidable selection.  If he can use the new strikezone to his advantage, he could become even more dominating than he was in his brief stint in 1998.

Jon Lieber led the National League in innings pitched last year but that accomplishment didn't show up in the wins column.  Lieber is a solid middle of the rotation starter with a decent fastball and an excellent slider as his two main pitches.  With Wood's return to full health and much of the pressure will be off Lieber, he could have his best year yet.

Kevin Tapani has been around a long time.  In fact, he was a starter for the Twins the last time they won a World Series back in 1991.  While he's not the same pitcher he was then, he's still reasonably effective and given good run support, might still win 12-15 games.  More importantly for the Cubs, he provides quality innings that will protect their thin bullpen.

The Cubs acquired Julian Tavares, who somehow managed a decent ERA in Colorado last year.  I say somehow because none of his secondary statistics - hits per inning, walks per inning, strikeout-to-walk ratio - support such a performance.  It's unlikely the Cubs will get a repeat performance from him in his first full year as a starter unless he dramatically improves in those areas.

Jason Bere began his career on the South Side of Chicago as a promising young fireballer for the White Sox in the early 90s.  Several surgeries and teams later, he's trying to re-establish himself as a legitimate starter.  His problem has been consistency.  His spring training performance was somewhat encouraging but he's still a long shot to be anything more than a shell of his former self.

The Cubs do have several very promising starters in the high minors in Mike Meyers, Juan Cruz, Ben Christiansen and Joey Nation.  Christiansen is more noted for his purposeful beaning of an opposing batter in the on-deck circle in a college game a couple of years ago than his considerable natural ability.  Cruz has the highest upside.  Twenty-two year old Ruben Quevedo is also a possibility.

Although it may be somewhat unrealistic to expect, there is a chance that the Cubs could have a solid rotation.  Wood could return to the form that made him rookie of the year.  Bere could find enough control to be a serviceable starter.  Either Tavares or a couple of the prospects could turn the corner and contribute quality innings.  These things have varying degrees of likelihood, none of which are exactly remote.  However, it's also possible that none of them come to fruition.  RATING: 50 (55 if the old Wood returns, 60 if Wood and one of the question marks steps up)
 

Bullpen

This year, like last year, the bullpen is the Cubs big weakness.  John Lieber pitched well enough to win 16 or 17 games last season.  because the bullpen blew so many leads, he ended up with 12.  So this year the Cubs front office brought in closer Tom Gordon and veteran lefty Jeff Fassero to guide their young relief corps.  Gordon is coming off shoulder surgery and experienced some problems this spring with his comeback.  He's questionable to return before late April.  In his place, Jeff Fassero has been getting the closing opportunities and converting them.  Given his struggles for the past 2 years, this is indeed encouraging as he'll give the Cubbies a second solid lefty, along with young Felix Heredia, to set up Gordon when he returns.  Kyle Farnsworth was tried as closer last September but simply didn't have the makeup for the task.  Both he and Mike Fyhrie will get the call from the right side, along with one-time wunderkind Todd Van Poppel.  If the Cubs can find someone at the end to close down the opposition in the 9th consistently, the rest of this bullpen could mature into a solid corps. RATING: 50 (60 with a healthy Gordon)
 

Management

Don Baylor has a reputation of being a player's manager.  I'm not sure what that means.  I do know he's one of the most active managers in the game employing strategy.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, he probably costs them more games than he wins for them.  He uses sacrifice bunts more than any manager.  While it's admirable that he values the little things teams can do to win games, playing for one run - which is the essence of bunting the runner over - in an era dominated by 3-run homers is a losing effort.  Baylor also doesn't have a particularly good track record of handling young pitchers, and he's one of the most frequent to ask pitchers to pitch on short rest, which increases their chance of injury.  GM Andy MacPhail track record is just as spotty.  He should be applauded for the acquisitions of Mueller, Hundley and White.  However, he pulled a page out of the Orioles play book by blocking some potentially decent young players with more expensive older versions.  RATING: 45
 

Conclusion

In a couple of years, Corey Patterson, Hee Seop Choi and several good young pitchers will join Sosa, Wood and crew to form a very talented team.  The Cubs best hope of winning at that point will be if they have more astute management.  Until then, Cubs fans can only hope that management, both on the field and in the front office, will be as economical as possible in the number of moves they make.