Arizona Diamondbacks
 

The Diamondbacks have made more news last year with their finances off the field than with their performance on it.  Last fall, owner Jerry Colangelo borrowed more than $20 million dollars to help cover the teams' operating losses.  Lost in all the hubbub about the D-backs going under is the fact that the amount he borrowed was exactly the same amount that every other team in baseball (other than the Devil Rays) got from the national TV contract.  As a provision for their entry into the league, the last two expansion teams were excluded from any of the national television revenue for their first 3 years.  Last year was the Diamondbacks third year of existence.

Several Diamondbacks players also made news this offseason by agreeing to defer portions of their contracts, so that Colangelo would have more maneuvering room.  What didn't make the news was that of the 10 who agreed to defer, only Luis Gonzales, Tony Womack and Brian Anderson are under 35.  By the time the Diamondbacks have to pay the deferments, it's quite likely that the other 7 will be considering retirement.  The thinking here is that by that time, the farm system will be producing adequate replacements making near minimum salary, which enable the team to better handle the deferred money.

That said, the Diamondbacks biggest obstacle on the field will be the health of their aging team.
 

Offense

Shortstop Tony Womack leads off for the team that ranked 10th in run scoring last year.  Womack is one of the fastest men in baseball.  He's also got one of the lowest on base percentages of any regular player in baseball.  For a leadoff man, that's a serious flaw.  It's also one of the reasons why a team with as much offensive talent as the D-backs score as few runs as they do.

Another reason is injury.  Last year, their clean-up hitter third baseman Matt Williams spent almost half the season on the DL.  In their division title run in 1999, he drove in 142 runs and finished among the league leaders in the NL MVP vote.  Last year, various injuries reduced his output to 47 RBI.  Much of Arizona's chances of competing are tied to the health of Williams as they do not have any adequate replacements should he be relegated to the trainer's table again.

Because of the salary restructuring, the Diamondbacks were able to sign two free agents: first baseman Mark Grace and outfielder Reggie Sanders.  Grace has been a model of consistency for almost a decade.  However, this was a puzzling roster move for several reasons.  First, while Grace has been amazingly consistent, his production is only league average at best.  Second, they already had a terrific hitting first baseman in Erubial Durazo.  If given 500+ at bats, there is little doubt that he wouldn't be among the league leaguers in offense.  Third, for a team that is so salary conscious that it asked almost half it's roster to defer salary, signing Grace for 10 times the cost of Durazo makes little sense.  And lastly, Grace's greatest value is in his glove.  But the Diamondbacks' infield is comprised of veteran players who make most of the plays that they can get to.  So it's not as though they needed a first baseman who can pick throws out of the dirt.

Reggie Sanders can be a very productive outfielder when he's healthy.  Therein lies the rub.  In a 10-year career, he has yet to play 140 games in a season.  This signing is also questionable in that the only other place Durazo could play was the outfield, and bringing Sanders in prevents him from doing that.  In essence, the D-backs are spending millions to keep their best hitter on the bench.  In Sanders defense, he gives Arizona a multi-dimensional offensive tool in that he can hit for power (.476 career slugging) and steal bases very effectively (he pilfered 21 last year with an 84% success rate).  New manager Bob Brenly might want to consider using him as a lead off hitter, as hit career on base percentage is almost 30 points higher than that of Womack.

The other two outfield spots are manned by All-Stars Steve Finley and Luis Gonzales.  In many ways they are similar.  Both found their power stroke late in their careers.  Finley's first season with more than 20 homers came when he was 31; Gonzales was 30.  Both are 6'2" lefties who hit for good average (Finley - career .275 hitter, Gonzales - .281).  And both average about 70 walks and 85 strikeouts a year.

Jay Bell was the first big signing of the D-backs back in 1998.  Many thought Colangelo was a fool for signing a 32-year old infielder coming off a career year to a long term contract.  But in 3 years, Bell has hit 76 homers and driven in 247 base runners while getting on base over 36% of the time.  And as salaries have escalated at an unimaginable rate in the past 3 years, the Bell signing is looking more and more sensible, especially since Arizona doesn't yet have any viable candidates to replace him in the high minors.

Damian Miller will be the primary catcher, but back-up Rod Barajas is the one to watch.  Miller has a modicum of power and average on base skills for a catcher.  Barajas has a power bat and hits for decent average.  If he can learn not to swing at so many bad pitches, he has enough talent to be a good offensive catcher.

The D-backs certainly have talent around the diamond.  However, age and injuries will play a major role in whether they can score enough to contend.  RATING: 55 (65 talent-wise if they can stay off the DL)
 

Defense

The Diamondback defense is a veteran one that doesn't make mistakes.  However, they do not have a single player who rates even average in range.  Mark Grace has a reputation for being a great defensive player, as does Matt Williams.  However, they are shadows of their former selves.  So instead of making errors, this defense gives up hits.  RATING: 40
 

Starting Pitching

One would think that any pitching staff headed by Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling would rank among the elite in the league.  But then, one could be wrong.  It's true that Johnson and Schilling make the most intimidating lefty-righty combination since Koufax and Drysdale, but as Gene Mauch could tell you, a pitching staff is more than just the two best pitchers. (1)  Johnson's last 4 years have drawn many comparisons to Koufax' brilliant 4-year run from 1963-1966.  Both men averaged over 300 strikeouts per season, minuscule opponents batting averages and league leading ERAs.  Curt Schilling is the first right hander to strike out 300 batters in consecutive seasons since JR Richard did it in 1978-79.  Should the D-backs make the playoffs, no team would relish the task of having to beat each one more than once.  Getting to the playoffs, however, will be the trick.  Lefty Brian Anderson has shown some promise but continues to have trouble preventing opposing hitters from tattooing mistakes.  Over the past 3 years in around 550 innings, he has given up a whopping 95 home runs.  For a pitcher that does not pitch in Coors regularly, this is a major concern.  Todd Stottlemyre has been battling shoulder and arm woes for the past 2 years, refusing to get surgery on what appears to be a severely torn rotator cuff.  He did however get his elbow repaired surgically this offseason.  However, unless he gets his shoulder fixed, he's done.  Junkballer Armando Reynoso will get regular starts in his place.  Reynoso gets by completely on guile and picking off runners - he has one of the best moves to first of any right hander in recent memory - but letting the hitter get on base so you can try to pick him off seems like a very inefficient way of pitching, unless you are Tippy Martinez.  (2)   RATING: 55 (solely on the strength of Johnson/Schilling)

(1 - In 1964, the Philadelphia Phillies led the National League pennant race by five and a half games with 11 to play.  But instead of counting on his whole staff to get him to the World Series, Mauch sent his two best pitchers, Jim Bunning and Chris Short, to the mound 3 times each with just two days rest between starts.  Bunning and Short couldn't hold up to the excessive workload and the Phillies lost 10 straight to lose  the pennant to a hard charging Cardinals team that eventually won the World Series)

(2 - Martinez once picked off three consecutive baserunners to get a save.)
 

Bullpen

Arizona has the luxury of having 2 effective closers.  Matt Mantei is the guy designated as the primary closer.  His repertoire includes a 98-mph fastball, a 90-mph slider and a nasty curve.  When Mantei needs a night off, set-up man Byung-Hyun Kim takes over.  While he doesn't have the overpowering velocity that Mantei does, the Korean sidearmer has such ridiculous movement on his pitches that they seem to defy the laws of physics.  The D-backs have a couple of graybeards in the pen who are still cagey enough to get hitters out.  Mike Morgan, who has been with 13 different teams, has settled into his role as swingman.  Greg Swindell is the primary lefty out of the pen.  Well-traveled Russ Springer provides another power arm for the middle innings.  RATING: 65
 

Management

Bob Brenly will probably do fine after coming down from the broadcast booth to the manager's hot seat this winter.  As a former major league catcher, he should be adept at handling pitchers and as a former broadcaster he will at least be aware that pitch counts are important.  Other than that, we'll just have to wait and see.  Joe Garagiola, Jr. has been the Diamondbacks GM from Day One.  His record has a little of everything - brilliant signings (Randy Johnson), dumb signings (Mark Grace), good trades (Curt Schilling for Travis Lee, Vicente Padilla and Omar Daal), dumb trades (Tony Batista for Dan Plesac) with the jury still out on others.  That said, he has been more than generous to his trading partners when dealing minor leaguers, which will come back to haunt Arizona soon.  Perhaps as soon as they face the Marlins the next time Brad Penny is on the mound and Abraham Nunez is in the outfield.  RATING: 45
 

Conclusion

While the D-backs have a talented offense, two dominating starters and a better than average bullpen, age and injury are significant obstacles to them challenging for the division.  This team will have no regular position player under 30 and only one regular starting pitcher (Anderson) under 34.  Age is also taking a toll on their defense, which while being lauded by many in the media as being above average, is actually hurting the team with it's lack of range.  The lack of quality depth in the rotation is also a significant problem.  Too many things have to go right for this team to win a fairly competitive division.