Atlanta Braves
 

Last year, the Braves finished one game above the Mets for their 6th straight division title.  The one game that separated the Braves and Mets was the margin  between the two teams face-to-face, as the Braves finished 7-6 against the Mets.  In 1999, the Braves had bedeviled the Mets, cleaning their clocks down the stretch, then knocking them out of the playoffs.   Last year, the Braves lost ground in the talent department with the Smoltz injury and fell in the opening round of playoffs to a tough match-up with the Cardinals.

This year, the Braves look to regain some of their talent advantage in the division with Smoltz' return.  However, it may not be only the Mets they have to worry about anymore.
 

Offense

Much has been made of Andres Galarraga's departure and his replacement by Rico Brogna at first base.  But frankly, I don't see a great deal of difference here.  Neither guy is particularly selective at the plate, nor do they make contact with a high percentage of swings. And Galarraga isn't much more of a threat to hit 30 homers at his age than Brogna is due to reduced playing time.  While Galarraga still holds an edge offensively, it's not as large as many believe.

It's quite amusing to see writers and broadcasters alike wrangle with the Rafael Furcal age issue.  On the one hand, they cite his accomplishments from last year and compare him to the likes of Ty Cobb because he is listed as a 20-year old.  On the other hand, just about everyone in baseball winks at the fact that he's probably closer to 23 as his real birth certificate suggests.  How else can you explain a Latin American not being charged with underaged drunk driving last year in Georgia when he was pulled over for DUI.  I can tell you from experience that Georgia troopers are far more interested in the law than any mitigating circumstances.  So rather than the next Ty Cobb (wink, wink), it's more likely that we are watching the next Edgar Renteria, which is still pretty good.  He starts this year with questions concerning the health of his shoulder, as he injured it playing winterball.

Third baseman Chipper Jones played last year with bone chips floating around in one of his elbows.  As painful as that is, it didn't seem to affect him too adversely as his production was almost identical to his pre-MVP season of 1998.  One significant improvement of note is his reduction in strikeouts by 30%.  Expect more of the same from the best hitting third baseman in the game.

After his dramatic entrance in 1996, homering in his first World Series at bat, becoming the youngest player ever to homer in a World Series, then doing it again in his next at bat, Andruw Jones has been relatively quiet on the media radar screen.  Vladimir Guerrero, Darin Erstad and Brian Giles have all passed him up as media darlings.  What everyone seems to forget about the quiet centerfielder is that he is younger than all of them.  With the exception of Guerrero, much younger.  What people don't seem to realize is that he's not far behind Ken Griffey, Jr at the same age - 30 points in batting average, 26 points in slugging, 16 home runs.  The difference becomes even narrower when adjusting for their home ballparks.  The wide disparity in runs and RBI they have is due to Griffey batting 2nd and 3rd to start his career, while Jones was relegated to 7th and 8th by the youth-o-phobic Bobby Cox.  Griffey made a quantum leap in production at age 23.  Jones, merely a significant improvement.  Look for more significant improvement this year as he steps closer toward becoming the next Griffey.

Brian Jordan and BJ Surhoff will play the majority of the games at the other outfield positions.  Both are solid hitters, providing decent power and acceptable on base, and both are capable of stealing a dozen bases.

Quilvio Veras will try again to make it through an entire season at second base without spending a significant amount of time on the DL.  When he's healthy, he's an excellent leadoff/#2 hitter, capable of getting on base more than 40% of the time and stealing 30 or more bases.  The problem is that the last time he played more than 140 games in a season was 1997 and at 30, he's not likely to be getting healthier.

Javy Lopez has been a solid contributor to the offense from behind the plate for 4 of the last 5 years.  Only 1999, when he had knee troubles, was he sub par.  Before his injury, there was a debate as to whether he or Mike Piazza was the best catcher in the NL.  While he didn't quite have the offensive skills that Piazza, his defensive skills were superior.  While that debate is likely over decided in favor of Piazza, Lopez should return to the offensive levels that prompted the debate in the first place.

All totaled, the Braves have a good offense when all the pieces are in place.  Unfortunately, that hasn't happened too much in recent years as Veras, Jordan and Lopez have spent significant time recovering from injuries.  Newcomer Brogna hasn't exactly been the picture of health either.  If they can stay away from the trainer's table, they could be one of the top 3 or 4 offenses in the NL.  RATING: 65 (70 if Veras, Jordan and Lopez can stay healthy)
 

Defense

Andruw Jones is the best defensive centerfielder in baseball.  On a team of predominantly ground ball pitchers, he led all centerfielders in put outs.  He also had 9 assists, even though teams rarely run on his arm.  The rest of the defensive picture isn't bad.  Surhoff and Jordan are above average defenders in the outfield in both range and arm.  Furcal and Veras are slightly above average fielders.  Chipper Jones is below average at best.  Lopez' reputation as a fine defensive catcher has taken a hit in recent years as he doesn't throw out runners very frequently, nor does his CERA lead the team.  While other pitchers don't mind him behind the plate, staff ace Greg Maddux seems to do anything possible not to pitch to him.  After watching his pitch calling in a recent spring training game with Odalis Perez on the mound, I can see why.  RATING: 60 (on the strength of their outfield)
 

Starting Pitching

The Braves have the best starting pitching in the National League; end of story, right?  Not necessarily.  If John Smoltz was completely healthy and Kevin Millwood regains his 1999 form, then, yes there's certainly a strong argument that the Braves rotation will again lead them back to the playoffs.  But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine have been the two constants in the Braves rotation for the past 8 years.  They were the winningest pitchers of the 90's and finished off the decade with 40 wins between them in 2000.  Both are still a year or two from age related declines - Maddux is 34; Glavine, 35.  But there is a concern.  In 1999, MLB started the season calling the strikezone as it will be called this season.  Both Maddux and Glavine had dreadful years by their standards.  Both are smart pitchers known for making adjustments, but a redo is not out of the question.

The two big questions in the rotation are Smoltz and Millwood.  Pitching coach Leo Mazzone thinks Millwood's mechanics got out of whack trying to pitch side to side, as Glavine and Maddux do, rather than up and own, as he did in 1999.  The higher strikezone should help him in back in that direction considerably.  His first start this season was a positive indicator.

Smoltz, however, is a big question.  He is attempting to come back from Tommy John surgery in less than a year after the procedure was performed.  The precedents for a successful return this soon are not positive. Do you know who holds the mark for best NL career ERA in the last 50 years?  Koufax?  Gibson?  Seaver?  Marichal?  Drysdale?  Carlton?  Maddux?  nope.  Jose Rijo.  In 1994, Rijo discovered that he needed Tommy John surgery.  By the spring, he was feeling like a new man and felt he could come back much faster than the recommended 12-18 months rehab.  Sound familiar?  Unfortunately, even as good as his arm felt initially, it wasn't completely healed.  He ended up shredding the repaired elbow the following year and requiring 2 more operations just to get it functioning normally.  Needless to say, his career was over.  While Smoltz has spent a little more time recuperating than Rijo did, at 34 he's also 3 years older than Rijo was.  Even if he's patient enough to let it heal properly, how much will he have this season?  If history is any indicator, it will take him at least another year to regain his top form.  But that's only if he sits when he feels pain.  For a guy who has pitched through pain for much of the past 3 years, that's a tall order.

Odalis Perez, who was slated to be the 5th starter, will likely get the nod as his replacement, although with Bobby Cox' aversion to playing young players, aging bowling fanatic John Burkett - he once bowled a perfect game - will probably get far more than his share of starts.

If Maddux and Glavine handle the strikezone change, Millwood regains his form and Smoltz stays healthy, the Braves rotation will repeat as best in the NL.  However, there is a spectre looming that times have changed. RATING: 60
 

Bullpen

John Rocker was in the news quite a bit last year.  Probably more than anyone on earth wanted.  And the negative attention he got certainly seemed to affect his level of play.  He came into last season as one of the best closers in baseball.  But for the first half of the season he was a disaster, walking 34 batters in 25+ innings, posting an ERA near 5 and getting demoted to AAA.  However, he was able to overcome the adversity in the second half, when much of the social criticism had died down, and pitch brilliantly down the stretch, not allowing an earned run from the middle of August to the end of the season.  There's no reason to expect that he'll have a relapse of last year's troubles.  He'll be set-up by veteran lefty Mike Remlinger and righty Kerry Ligtenberg.  Both are solid, but Ligtenberg is a bit prone to giving up home runs in crucial situations.  Also in the bullpen are journeymen Joe Slusarski and Marc Valdes.  The Braves picture Jason Marquis in the rotation someday, but for now he'll fill a number of roles in the bullpen, principally in long relief.  However, outside of Rocker and Remilnger, this bullpen has little quality depth.  RATING: 55
 

Management

Bobby Cox has been lauded by many as one of the great managers ever, but you'd be hard pressed to prove it.  In the late 70's he managed the Braves and never finished higher than 4th.  The year after he left, Joe Torre won the division with that team.  Cox managed teams in Toronto that were loaded with talent in the 80s and won a division title just once.  Some would say he built the Braves.  Perhaps.  Of course, one has to consider the contributions of Paul Snyder, who gave him the best farm system since the Dodgers of the 70s and supplied him with most of the talent that has carried the Braves for the past decade.  The proof in the pudding is in crunch time: the playoffs.  With as many times as the Braves have been in the playoffs, the odds indicate that the Braves should have won at least a couple of World Series.  Considering their regular season records, 3 or 4 would not have been too much to expect.  And yet they've only won once.  Yes, they've had great success accumulating wins during the regular season, but that could be symptomatic of a strong farm system (which supplies quality replacements for injuries), a smart GM who makes savvy trades to shore up weaknesses during the season or simply such an abundance of talent on the major league squad that the team is goof proof.  And when looking at the Braves, the arguments for those three factors over the past decade are FAR stronger than simply "Bobby Cox is just unlucky in the playoffs".  As for the smart GM, John Schuerholz has done a very good job of keeping most of his organization's top talent and trading the merely good talent for solid additions.  His best work has been the trades for Fred McGriff (for 3 mediocre prospects) and Denny Neagle (for Jason Schmidt and Ron Wright, neither of whom have lived up to their minor league billing).  However, numerous times he has been guilty of trying to get away with cheap solutions instead of fixing the problems.  His 1999 deal for Terry Mulholland and Jose Hernandez - he needed a shortstop with good on base and a legit starter and neither fill the bill adequately - exemplify this trait.  RATING: 50
 

Conclusion

The Braves have to be considered the favorite to repeat as division champs.  They have fewer question marks than any team in the division and teams that have that going for them usually win.  That's not to say they are a lock; there are plenty of very realistic threats to their chances.  But they are the percentage play in the NL East.