Toronto Blue Jays
 

The Blue Jays made a run at the division crown in 2000, but injuries and inexperience ultimately worked against them.  Between Raul Mondesi's elbow (which had 14 bone chips removed from it... ouch!) and the inability of Roy Halladay, Cris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar or Peter Munro to develop into solid starters sealed the Blue Jays fate.  How they fare this year will largely depend on the health and development of these same players.

Offense

Offensively, the Blue Jays have a pretty decent team.  Firstbaseman Carlos Delgado had another great year with the bat and should be a perennial MVP candidate for the next several years.  The Diamondbacks traded third baseman Tony Batista to the Blue Jays in 1999 and have been kicking themselves ever since.  Even though he doesn't draw many walks, Batista is a decent hitter with very good power.  Designated hitter Brad Fullmer finally developed into the hitter the Expo scouts envisioned when they drafted him: high average, 30 homer power.  Darrin Fletcher, another refugee from the Expos, is above average offensively for a catcher in both power and on base skills.  Left fielder Shannon Stewart is developing into a Rickey Henderson-type hitter - 20+ homers and 40+ steals every year - although his on base skills aren't quite up to Henderson levels.  Great things were predicted of right fielder Raul Mondesi as a young Dodger prospect and to some degree, he has fulfilled them.  He's had a 30/30 year (in 1997) and has developed into a considerable power threat.  However, he still has never scored or driven in 100 runs, despite being on plenty of talented teams.  Perhaps this year he can stay healthy enough to erase that stigma.  Outfield prospect Vernon Wells is waiting in the wings with a similar package of power and speed.  The Jays other outfielder, Jose Cruz, Jr, doesn't possess the speed of the others, but he has 30+ home run power.  Shortstop Alex Gonzales and second baseman Homer Bush each have some offensive skill but they epitomize what has kept this team from becoming a great offensive machine: lack of walks.  Only Delgado (123) and Cruz (71) drew more than 50 walks last year.  Compare that to the A's, who don't have as much power as the Blue Jays.  They had 6 players draw at least 50 walks and consequently scored 86 more runs.  However, with the high strike being called this year, the Jays aggressiveness at the plate might work in their favor.  If new manager Buck Martinez can teach these young hitters (only Fletcher is over 30) to be a little more selective, the Jays will have one of the best offenses in baseball.  RATING: 65
 

Defense

The Blue Jays are a good defensive team.  The only weaknesses in the field they have are Delgado at first and Fletcher behind the plate.  Delgado, who came up through the minors as a catcher, is still learning the nuances of playing first.  He's getting better and it might not be long before he's considered average.  Fletcher's biggest problem has been throwing out runners.  He's always been below average in this regard and the fact that he's working with an inexperienced pitching staff doesn't help matters.  He does have a good reputation for handling pitchers.  RATING: 60
 

Starting Pitching

For the past 5 years, the Toronto farm system has been regarded as one of the best in the majors, largely on the strength of it's pitching prospects.  But with the exception of closer Billy Koch, none of the pitchers have lived up to expectation.  Cris Carpenter and Roy Halladay have each been described as potential #1 starters, yet each has struggled mightily at the major league level.  It was thought that having an established ace on the staff, like Roger Clemens or David Wells, would ease some of the pressure on them and perhaps offer them a tutor to hasten their development.  No such luck.  From here on out, they'll have to make it on their own.  The new strikezone should help.  The Jays traded former ace David Wells to the White Sox for starter Mike Sirotka in an effort to save payroll and get younger.  Unfortunately, Sirotka's shoulder pain from last season needed surgical attention so he will not be available this season.  This will guarantee that Carpenter and Halladay will be given every chance to realize their potential.  Esteban Loaiza and Joey Hamilton will round out the rotation.  Both are talented, and like the youngsters, both have never fully lived up to expectation.  Injuries have played a part in that, but it's largely due to their own failings.  If all goes well, journeyman Steve Parris will only be the team's 5th starter.  The Toronto starting staff has as much talent as any in the majors.  Whether or not Buck Martinez can get them to realize that enormous talent will be his biggest challenge. RATING: 65 talent-wise, 50 performance to date.
 

Bullpen

Billy Koch came away from Tommy John surgery three years ago throwing harder than he did in college.  But for a guy who throws 100 mph, he gives up way too many hits.  One possible reason for this: he overthrows his fastball in an effort to hit 100 every time.  This leads to bad mechanics which causes the pitch to straighten out and also tends to leave it high, out of the strikezone.  He gets behind in the count and then feels he has to throw the ball right down main street in order to avoid walking the batter, thus giving a good pitch to hit.  If he can reign in his emotions, the higher strikezone should make him one of the most dominating closers in baseball.  Kelvim Escobar will begin the season as his primary set-up man.  He too has an impressive fastball.  Escobar was the teams' closer a few years ago before being tried out in the rotation.  If he could master a third pitch, he could be a very good starter.  As it is, he'll be a very good setup man.  Veteran Dan Plesac will hold down set-up duties from the left side.  The Jays pen could give the Red Sox' a run for title of best in the East. RATING: 65
 

Management

This will be Buck Martinez first go as a manager but he should do reasonably well.  He's a former big league catcher and many of the best managers come from those ranks.  As an analyst for ESPN the last few years, he has demonstrated both a keen knowledge of the psychology of baseball and at least a rudimentary affinity for some of the research that's being done on the game, specifically the work on the effects of pitch counts.  I expect he will have a similar impact to what Mike Scioscia had on the Angels when he took over - that team improved by 12 wins his first year there.  Gord Ash is a very smart GM who unafraid to make moves however controversial.  His only constraint is salary.  RATING: 70
 

Summary

The Blue Jays have a ton of talent on both sides of the plate but have fallen short of realizing it.  If Martinez can unlock it, this team will vie for the division crown.  Otherwise, they'll be just a few games above .500 for the 4th consecutive year.