Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays were the first team in Major League Baseball history to draw 4 million fans in a season.  They first accomplished the feat in 1991.  The next year, they won the first of two consecutive world championships.  Last year, they were 19th in the majors in attendance.  The biggest reason for the drop is that from 1994 to 1997, they were a mediocre to bad team, having traded away or released many of the players who got them to the pinnacle.  The for the last two years, the Jays farm system has been restocking the roster with quality players and they look poised for a run at the top this year.

Last year, the offense was led by Carlos Delgado and Shawn Green.  Green is now gone, replaced by Raul Mondesi.  They are similar players, with Green having an edge in selectivity at the plate.  The move was driven by a need to pare some salary, as it was fairly clear the GM Gord Ash was not going to match Green's asking price.  Along with Mondesi, the Jays will have speedy Shannon Stewart and Jose Cruz Jr in the outfield.  Both guys are still young, but have enormous potential.  Stewart's speed and power combination has been compared to that of Rickey Henderson.  He does a pretty good job of getting on base as well, so the comparison is not far fetched at all.  People have been predicting great things for Cruz since his days at Rice University.  His past two years in Toronto have been fairly unimpressive given the  expectations, helping Mariner fans forget that he was traded for Mike Timlin and Paul Spoljaric.  He'll probably never hit for average, but he's shown good power and an improving eye so far this spring, so there's still time for Seattle fans to put another black mark on the tenure of ex-GM Woody Williams.  Uber-prospect Vernon Wells, who went from A-ball to the majors last year and could be better than all of them, is waiting in the wings.  Delgado is one of the premier hitters in the AL, averaging an OPS of around .950 for the past two seasons.  Newly acquired Brad Fullmer is coming into his own as a first rate masher.  Last year, he averaged a double every 10 at bats in spacious Stade Olympique.  In the more hitter friendly Skydome, a good number of those will become home runs.  Shortstop Alex Gonzales is another Jay who's not fared well under the weight of expectation.  He was supposed to have become the first of the great AL shortstops but injuries and poor plate discipline have put him in the mediocre category.  If he can stay healthy and learn not to start swinging the moment he steps out of the dugout, he has the tools to join Garciaparra, Jeter and ARod at the top of the heap.  In one of the biggest steals ever, Ash traded situational lefty Dan Plesac to the Diamondbacks last year for reliever John Frascatore and shortstop Tony Batista.  Plesac for Frascatore is a fair deal.  But getting an infielder who hits 30 homers a year in the deal makes this a historically lopsided transaction.  Since the Jays already had Gonzales at short, Batista has been over to third base, where he has flourished, topping .500 in slugging for the second consecutive year.  Darrin Fletcher is a capable receiver with decent pop behind the plate.  Second baseman Homer Bush has blazing speed and has so far hit well enough to be the leadoff man.  If he slumps, he's better suited to the 8th or 9th spot as he doesn't draw many walks. GRADE: 60

Defensively, the Jays are very good in the outfield, not as good in the infield.  Mondesi, Stewart and Cruz can run most everything down and Mondesi has one of the best arms in baseball.  Stewart doesn't throw particularly well and Cruz has an average arm.  Batista has decent range at third and a passable arm.  Gonzales is occasionally spectacular, merely very good the rest of the time.  Bush is an adequate fielder with good range.  Delgado is more suited to DH, but feels strongly about participating in all aspects of the game.  He was a below average catcher when he came up.  Now he's a below average first baseman. Fletcher is good at handling pitchers, but does a below average job throwing out runners.  The rest of his game with the glove is pretty average.   GRADE: 55

Starting pitching is what is going to carry the Blue Jays to the promised land.  The Yankees signed David Wells before the 1997 season and he led them to a World Championship in 1998.  But the didn't appreciate his free spirit - he once pitched a game wearing a cap once worn by Babe Ruth - or his party-hearty nature.  So they traded him to the Blue Jays.  What they forgot is that he's a pretty darn good pitcher and one of the best lefties in the majors.  In fact, last year he out-pitched the guy he was traded for, some guy named Clemens.  Like Clemens and his fellow Yank David Cone, he turns 37 this year.  Unlike Clemens and Cone, though, he's showing no signs of decline.  It's still pretty amazing that Wells has never won 20 games in a season.  Even more amazing is that he spent half of his career as 5th starter/reliever.  The Jays have 3 young starters with terrific arms who lack nothing but experience.   Cris Carpenter, Roy Halliday and Kelvim Escobar all show signs of becoming dominant starters, each possessing a 95+ mph fastball and at least one nasty breaking pitch.  Halliday threw a one-hitter in his second major league start and Carpenter and Escobar have been almost as brilliant at times.  But like most young pitchers, they also have had their share of terrible outings.  Of the three, Escobar looks closest to making a breakthrough.  Oft-injured Joey Hamilton will start once he's healthy.  Journeyman Frank Castillo will get some starts when Hamilton is on his well worn place on the DL.  GRADE: 65

Toronto's bullpen has gone through a number of changes over the past 4 years.  They've gone through a number of candidates for closer, even trying Escobar for a year.  They've finally settled one guy and what a closer he might become.  Several managers and scouts say Billy Koch has the most unhittable stuff they've ever seen.  His fastball tops out at 101 mph with movement and he "plays catch" at 95.  He also has a very good slider and curveball.  His problem is that he doesn't have good command of any of his pitches.  So he gets behind in counts and has to soften his fastball to make sure he gets it over.  Then BAM! he gets hit.  If he ever gets control of his stuff, he'll be the first regular pitcher in major league history to post ERAs under 1.  The rest of the bullpen is pretty average.  Frascatore and Paul Quantrill are the primary set-up guys from the right side, Pedro Bourbon and LSU-alum/Colorado refugee Lance Painter take it from the left side.  Peter Munro will eventually be a part of the rotation, but for now will be a long reliever and swing man.  GRADE: 55

Just on the strength of the Plesac/Batista trade, Gord Ash has entered the pantheon of great GMs.  He's actually done a pretty good job reconstructing the Jays while building a very impressive farm system.  In fact, the Jays probably have more quality position prospects than any organization in baseball.  So if the Jays are in contention and they need to get something, they definitely have the ammo to do it.  Of course, all they really need to get what they want are a couple of mediocre relievers as long as the D-backs are around.  Jim Fregosi has no illusions about his importance as a manager.  He's stated on several occasions that if he doesn't have the horses, there's not much he can do to make a run.  When he's had the horses, he's done an average job, most notably with the 1993 Phillies.  He seems to have a good repoire with his players and that's as important as being a good game tactician over the course of the regular season.  In the post season, however, that's another story.  But if things break well for the Jays, Fregosi is good enough to get them to the playoffs, or perhaps not bad enough to prevent them from getting there.  GRADE: 60