St. Louis CardinalsThe Cards have an enviable advantage over most teams: their GM Walt Jocketty actually gets along with sports agent Scott Boras. Boras has some of the biggest names in baseball as clients and is frequently successful in maximizing their income, even beyond what is generally thought possible. He has also tried on a number of occasions to completely alter the way baseball does business, even going so far as to attempt to disband the amateur draft. In 1997, Florida State centerfielder JD Drew signed on with Boras, refused to sign with the Phillies after they picked him #1 overall unless they paid him $10 million and sat out the season in an effort to be declared a free agent. Boras tried a similar tactic with Georgia Tech catcher Jason Varitek 2 years earlier. The stunt cost Varitek two years of development in the minors and probably several million in arbitration awards. How do I know this? That Georgia Tech team had 3 excellent hitters in 1994, the best of which was Varitek. Outfielder Jay Payton was considered the second best hitter, but his career has been sidetracked by numerous arm and shoulder injuries. The final member of the Yellow Jacket troika was a shortstop named Nomar Garciaparra. Anyway, Jocketty has somehow managed to keep a smooth relationship with Boras, who is often demonized by both the ownership and the media. But for whatever reason, even with Boras seemingly on their side, the Cards have yet to put it all together. Two words: healthy pitching.
The Cards come into this season with a great deal of optimism. Most of it has to do with what they've done with the pitching staff but they feel strongly they'll be a better offensive team as well. They traded for Fernando Vina, who is regarded as a good leadoff hitter and a fine defensive second baseman. However, his career OBP is only 17 points above that of last year's leadoff man, Joe McEwing. Others might point to Vina's superior speed as a big improvement. Well, Vina's finished his best year in stolen bases with 22. McEwing had 7 last year. Are 15 stolen bases going to make that big of a difference over the course of a full year? What's worse, the year Vina stole 22, he got caught 16 times. A success ratio that low actually hurts his team's offense. McEwing has roughly the same ratio, but hurts his team less because he doesn't try more often. The Cards might have an improved offense because of the growth of their young players: shortstop Edgar Renteria, third baseman Fernando Tatis and JD Drew. Renteria is developing into a solid offensive shortstop, increasing his slugging by 60 points last year. Tatis scored and drove in over 100 for the first time in his career last year. He also became the first man in the history of baseball to hit two grand slams in the same inning. Most importantly, his eye at the plate is becoming much more discerning - he more than doubled his walk rate last year while maintaining his strike out rate. Both of these players will be All Stars in the coming years. Drew was plagued by injuries and over-hyped expectations last year. Many predicted he would be the next Mickey Mantle and when he failed to live up to expectations early, he pressed. Being vilified in Philadelphia probably didn't help. Still, Drew has a great deal of talent and should realize some his sizable potential this year. But just as the offense could get better because of the development of the St. Louis' youngsters, it might just as easily get worse due to the health of it's aging veterans. Outfielders Eric Davis and Ray Lankford were plagued by injuries last year. Davis is now 38, Lankford 33. While there's still time for Lankford to regain form to his peak levels, it's fairly certain that Davis has already seen his best days and won't be much more than a 4th outfielder. The Cards signed Brian McRae as insurance, but he hasn't been overly productive since his days with the Cubs 4 years ago. Shawon Dunston and Joe McEwing are also competing for outfield spots but neither will, or should, be much more than bench players unless there are injuries. The Cards have Eli Marrero penciled in at catcher, with Mike Matheny and Rick Wilkins as possible backups. Marrero just wasn't good last year. But it should be noted that much of Marrero's offensive struggles last year were probably due to his bout with thyroid cancer in 1998. In the minors, he showed flashes of being an above average offensive player. But unless Marrero dramatically improves his offense, then Tony La Russa might be justified in batting his pitcher 8th in order. Lastly, there is Mark McGwire. If anyone needs proof that one guy can't carry a team in baseball, here it is. McGwire has created more runs over the past several years than anyone, with his high walk totals and home runs. And yet the Cards are 7 games under .500 over that period. The Cards have won only 23 more games than McGwire has homers in two years. Big Mac has been healthy now for 4 years and every year during that stretch he has bopped at least 50 homers. Before that, though, he suffered from terrible foot injuries and produced only 57 homers over 3 years. If he's healthy, he'll bop another 50 or 60 or 70 homers and get that much closer to breaking Aaron's record. But that still might not get him any closer to another World Series ring. By the way, if Big Mac can average 39 homers for 6 more years (putting him at age 42), he'll have exactly 756 homers, one more than Aaron's record. GRADE: 60
The Cardinal defense is above average to pretty good. Edgar Renteria is a very good defender at times but goes through slumps where he doesn't appear to be very involved in the game. When he's on his game, he's top notch and the Cards become a tough defense. Fernando Vina, a solid defender and very good on the pivot, is a slight upgrade defensively over Joe McEwing. The biggest impact of Vina's arrival is that it allows McEwing to become more valuable as a super utility man, playing all over the field. Tatis has average range but a strong arm and charges the ball well. At one time, Mark McGwire was a solid defensive player at first, but in recent years he's looked more and more uncomfortable with a glove. Perhaps it's his increased size or maybe it's a lack of interest in the defensive side of the game, but he's become a below average defender. With Drew and a healthy Lankford, the Cardinals will have very good coverage in the outfield. McRae and Davis both have limited range, but if Drew can cheat to their side of the outfield, they should be an above average crew because Lankford can cover so much ground. However, if Lankford gets hurt again, they could look a lot like the Reds out there - two monuments with gloves and one guy trying to cover the rest of the outfield. Although Marrero hasn't shown much on offense, he is a very solid defender. Another year away from chemo should improve his performance to very good. GRADE: 60
The Cards made a big splash this winter, acquiring 3 veteran starters: Pat Hentgen, Daryl Kile and Andy Benes. Each of them has won at least 16 games in a season in their careers with Hentgen winning 20 and the AL Cy Young award in 1996. However, Hentgen and Benes, merely .500 pitchers the last 2 years, appear to have lost a few miles an hour off their once impressive fastballs. They might both still be quality pitchers but there's no question they're not as good as advertised. Daryl Kile spent the last two years trying to throw his exceptional curveball in the thin mountain air of Colorado and getting utterly battered. If he hasn't lost complete confidence in his stuff, he is a strong candidate to regain his old form. His spring training results so far are encouraging. It seems odd to talk about an 18-game winner as a 4th starter, but that's where many people see Kent Bottenfield after his breakthrough (or was it a career?) season last year. Bottenfield had never shown the kind of aptitude he displayed last year, so it's good bet that he won't duplicate last year's success. However, he isn't a complete schlub who just got lucky one year. And just because he doesn't have very good stuff doesn't mean he can't be effective. He knows how to pitch, changing speeds and moving his pitches around, and could very well lead the Cards in wins again. Rounding out the rotation is the most heralded pitching prospect in nearly 20 years: Rick Ankiel. Ankiel had an exceptional run through the minors and is now poised to pitch every 5th day at the age of 20. He has 3 exceptional pitches: a fastball that reaches the mid 90s, an eye-popping curve and very good change-up, but has a tendency to throw a lot of pitches trying to make each one perfect. If he can relax a little and not try to strike everyone out, he could be a truly dominant lefty. LaRussa has tried to be careful with him, but does not have a good track record with young pitchers. Alan Benes and Matt Morris, two excellent young pitchers, have both undergone arm and shoulder surgery after bearing an excessive workload under LaRussa. LaRussa's record in Oakland with young pitchers is just as bleak. Even if LaRussa can restrain his enthusiasm for Ankiel's potential, it's highly unlikely that Ankiel will zoom to superstardom this year. Most pitchers his age struggle in their first exposure to the majors. Look for a year very similar to that of Paul Wilson's (another heralded rookie phenom) in his rookie year: a couple of brilliant performances nestled amongst what could charitably called "learning experiences". Morris and the younger Benes will add quality depth if they can make it back from their woes. GRADE: 60
The Cardinal bullpen will be very interesting. They dumped the two guys who closed for them last year in favor of the Rockies old closer, Dave Veres. He seems more suited to setup, as he doesn't have any one dominant pitch, nor does he have exceptional control. The rest of the bullpen is pretty average, although hard-throwing Chad Hutchinson could be an intriguing candidate for closer-in-waiting if he makes the team. He throws in the mid to upper 90's and has a devastating split finger pitch. But mostly they have a bunch of retreads like Heathcliff Slocumb, John Hudek, Paul Spoljaric and Scott Radinsky. That's not to say that none of these guys are good; each of them has had stretches of being very good. But for the most part, none are particularly noteworthy and each has struggled in recent years. Garrett Stephenson, Mike Mohler and non-roster invitee Dave Wainhouse are having good springs and might make the team. Stephenson had one good year as a starter in Philadelphia but has been batting arm injuries ever since. If he's fully recovered, he could be a huge contributor to this staff as either a spot starter or a long man. Before last year, Ex-Angel's setup Mike James was high quality, but this year remains a question mark coming back from arm surgery. GRADE: 45
Other than his incredible relationship with Scott Boras, Walt Jocketty has been a fairly average GM. He did convince Mark McGwire that St. Louis was a better place to play than southern California, but that might be more of a credit to the fans than the GM. It's also not his fault that the pitching has been injury prone over the past few years. But he did trade away Dmitri Young for injury plagued Jeff Brantley and he let Brian Jordan go to free agency in favor of signing Eric Davis. Tony LaRussa has always been highly regarded as a manager. He's had his problems with individual players, but for the most part, he has the respect of his team. However, he has some rather non-standard ideas about the composition of a successful line-up, he doesn't have a particularly good track record with young pitchers and his teams don't handle adversity particularly well. I've played the computer game named after him for a number of years. Surprisingly, his strategies work in the game about as often as they work in real life. It might be time for a programming upgrade in St. Louis. GRADE: 50
(note: just when I finished this, the Cards traded Joe McEwing to the Mets for Jesse Orosco. The loss of McEwing means Dunston will be the chief utility guy and the addition of Orosco gives the bullpen a veteran lefty presence. But Orosco is 43 now and doesn't possess the control he once had, so the impact of this trade will be minimal)
(note #2: the Cardinals just won't let me finish this division: today they traded Kent Bottenfield and Adam Kennedy for Jim Edmonds. The Cards appear to be impressed enough with garret Stephenson that they'll get him into the rotation at least until Morris or Al Benes is ready. Edmonds will now play center and Lankford and Drew will flank him. This improves the outfield defense considerably and gives the Cards some serious lumber from the left side to complement McGwire and Tatis. The Cards definitely moved closer to the Astros with this move,. but they now face the same bugaboo that has plagued them the past 3 years: if Benes or Morris don't make it back soon, they are thin in the rotation and have few alternatives if any of their new big 3 fail.)