San Francisco GiantsThe Giants have finished 1st or 2nd in the West every year since 1997. That may not sound like much except when you consider that their team payroll has been more than a third less than that of the Dodgers and D-backs, and $10 million less than that of the Rockies. How do they do it? Many say with smoke and mirrors, but I think there's a decent team in there camouflaged by some Bay area fog.
What has been true for the past three years will probably be true again for the Giants offense: as long as Jeff Kent and Barry Bonds are healthy, so is the Giants' ability to score runs. Ellis Burks and JT Snow add some power to the line-up, but the Giants don't score without Bonds and Kent and they don't score much if the guys ahead of them don't get on base. GM Brian Sabean's job has been pretty simple: develop or acquire players to get on base ahead of Bonds and Kent. Last year, that responsibility fell to Marvin Benard and Bill Mueller with mixed results. This year, those two will face competition from newcomers Russ Davis and Calvin Murray. Felipe Crespo is a dark horse possibility. Once the heir apparent to Roberto Alomar in Toronto, Crespo has become adept at playing several positions, has a good knowledge of the strikezone and a fair amount of talent. The Giants hope that Rich Aurilia continues his development at shortstop and hope he can become more adept defensively. They also have high hopes to find a starting catcher in either Doug Mirabelli or newly acquired Bobby Estelella. Estelella has more power, Mirabelli is the more disciplined hitter. When healthy, the Giants can score runs about as well as anyone in the league as they have good power throughout the line-up and most everyone gets on base at a respectable clip. GRADE: 65
San Francisco is a decent to below average fielding team. Sure, Barry Bonds and JT Snow win the Gold Glove award every year, and Bill Mueller is about average at third. But Marvin Benard, Jeff Kent and Rich Aurilia are below average fielders. Ellis Burks is about average when he's healthy, but continuing knee troubles could speed his return back to the AL as a DH to finish out his career. Russ Davis and Calvin Murray don't appear to be any better options defensively. Mirabelli is the more defensively sound of the two catchers but neither will conjure up thoughts of Johnny Bench. GRADE: 45
The starting pitching has been inconsistent for the past few years, largely due to youth. None of San Francisco's starters is older than 29. And all of them, with the exception of Kirk Rueter, have good to very good velocity. However, "stuff" really isn't the question when it comes to the Giants' starting fortunes. Usage is. Over the past several years, Dusty Baker has been one of the worst managers in baseball when it comes to protecting developing arms. For example, last year was Russ Ortiz' first full year as a starter at any level. But Dusty Baker allowed him to throw the 4th most pitches (3724), the second most 120+ pitch games (13) and the highest pitch per inning count (17.9) in the NL. That can't be good for a 25 year old arm. In fact, the top 3, and 4 of the top 6 in most pitches per inning were San Francisco Giant starters - Ortiz, Rueter, Estes and Hernandez. For guys who are supposed to throw 200+ innings, that is a lot of strain on their arms. Unfortunately for Giants fans, this is not a new thing for Baker. His abuse of young pitching arms is a trend dating back to the days of Salomon Torres in 1993. Ever wonder why the Giants have not developed a consistent starter from within their organization in the past 5 years? Now you know. Young Joe Nathan appears to be the next in line for the Baker treatment as the team's 5th starter. If anyone goes down, LSU alum and reconstructive surgery success Kurt Ainsworth might be called up. GRADE: 55 health-willing, 35 otherwise
The Giant bullpen has been one of the strengths of the team in the Baker era. Baker has a very good feel for changing relievers, and he has some pretty good arms in the pen this year. Closer Robb Nen is coming off surgery, but Giants personnel have been publicly optimistic that he'll be back before the season begins. If not, the closing duties will fall to the capable arm of John Johnstone. The late relief is pretty good with lefty Alan Embree and right hander Felix Rodriguez, provided they throw strikes as wildness has been a problem. Ben Weber looks promising. Lefty Aaron Fultz, coming off a very good winter season, will probably make the staff as a swingman. If any of the Giants starters blow out, he'd be a good candidate for the rotation. Even so, the pitching is thin and erratic. If the starters suffer any physical problems and/or if Nen isn't healthy, the Giants could be in for a long year. GRADE: 60 w/Nen, 50 without
Sabean has done a nice job to date of getting competent players for the stretch runs over the past 3 years, but all those trades have taken a toll. The farm system is pretty barren with only one prospect, Ainsworth, as highly regarded. If the Giants are to keep their steak alive of top 2 finishes, they will have to make it happen with what they have on their major league roster and pray they don't have any injuries. Not only is Dusty Baker is an excellent game tactician, but one of the best motivators in baseball. His teams are notably resilient and he seems to actually get his players to play beyond their appraised ability. However, his overwork of his starting staff will cost the Giants in the long run, if not sooner. GRADE: 65