Seattle MarinersFormer Seattle GM Woody Woodward probably did the smart thing. He retired before he had to make the decision on how to resolve the possibility that both centerfielder Ken Griffey Jr and shortstop Alex Rodriguez could leave Seattle via free agency at the end of the 2000 season. His record over the past few years was rather mottled and anything he did would probably be viewed with scorn. Better leave this problem to the new guy. The guy, Pat Gillick, offered contracts to both players. Both offers were rejected. Soon after, Griffey demanded to be traded. So rather than lose both and get only draft picks, he decided to shop Ken Griffey Jr, in hopes of shoring up some of the Seattle weaknesses and then try again to sign ARod to a more lucrative long term deal. Gillick reached a deal with the Mets but the deal was stopped by Griffey, who had 10-5 rights, which allowed him to reject any offer. Griffey not only stopped that trade, but went a step further and demanded that he would only be traded to Cincinnati, his hometown. With Gillick's hands tied, he did the best that he could: RHP Bret Tomko, CF Mike Cameron, minor league shortstop Antonio Perez and minor league pitcher Jake Meyer. Not much, considering Griffey was one of the 9 outfielders who were voted to the All-Century team. But better than nothing.
The Mariners will field a decent offensive team even without Griffey. John Olerud, a native of Washington, was signed to assume first base duties and is one of the better first baseman in the majors. No, he doesn't hit homers like McGwire or Bagwell, but he hits a lot of doubles and gets on base at a very high rate: .406 for his career. Along with Edgar Martinez and ARod, the Mariners have a very intimidating middle of the order. Jay Buhner returns from injury after missing a good part of last year. His return to full health will give the M's another long ball threat, as well as another guy who gets on base. Carlos Guillen is also returning from injury. Last year would have been his rookie year so he'll probably be struggling with adjustments for the first half of the year. However, he has a decent eye at the plate and good power, so he should be able to adjust and come on strong in the second half. David Bell is not as good a player as he showed last year. But he's not too much worse, either. Before last year, he had 14 homers and 50 doubles in roughly 850 career at bats. Last year he hit 21 homers and 31 doubles in almost 600 at bats. He might very well come close to his slugging numbers this year. Unfortunately, he'll probably come close to his on base numbers as well, which weren't that great. Which is probably why the M's signed Mark McLemore, who has good on base numbers and great position versatility. Dan Wilson returns behind the plate and will probably replicate his usual .400 slugging (good) and .315 on base (bad). Mike Cameron is known more for his defense, but he has very good speed and occasional pop. His problem has always been plate discipline, as he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough. He's mostly thought of as a leadoff hitter because of his speed, but is probably better suited for hitting 6th or 7th. Stan Javier was also brought on board this offseason to be a 4th outfielder, but could see plenty of playing time, as he is pretty good at getting on base and is a very good base stealer. The keys to the Mariner offense will be Edgar Martinez and Alex Rodriguez. Edgar is getting up in years (he's 37) and will probably show signs of decline over the next couple of years. How rapid the decline will determine how much pressure will be placed on ARod. Rodriguez has a very good chance to be the greatest shortstop ever. At 24, he's 2 years younger than Jeter and Garciaparra. His career OPS is 60 points better than Jeter's and less than 20 behind Garciaparra's. It's highly likely that in the next two years, he will blow by Garciaparra, leaving Jeter a distant memory. In a historical context, ARod's career OPS is already better than all but two of Cal Ripken's best years. Bill James projected his career numbers given a normal learning curve and ARod projected out to 689 career homers, 2206 RBI, 3955 hits, 2367 runs and 614 stolen bases. FYI, those would be good for 3rd, 3rd (5 shy of 2nd), 3rd, 1st (by more than a hundred) and 16th all time. It would also make ARod the first and only 600/600 man in history. If he plays shortstop for most of that career, there is a strong argument to be made that not only would he be the best shortstop ever, but the second greatest player ever. With this guy batting third, even with Griffey gone, the Mariners could very well be near the top of the AL in scoring. GRADE: 65+
Defensively, the M's are a good club. ARod is a very good fielder, Bell/McLemore fairly average, with McLemore being the better of the two. Guillen has better than above average range and terrific instincts for the ball and should make the transition from short stop to third rather easily. Olerud who stands 6' 5'' is tough to overthrow and he makes difficult plays in the dirt look rather routine. He should win the gold glove at first this year. Wilson is an above average catch and throw guy with quick release, quick feet and solid range. Buhner doesn't have the range he once did but still possesses the great arm. Cameron is probably the best defensive center fielder in the American League with outstanding range, good instincts and an above average arm. Left field will be a mix of Javier, McLemore and Charles Gipson, all of whom provide workman-like defense. All in all Seattle is one of the better defensive teams in the AL. GRADE: 65
It's been two years since the Mariners traded Randy Johnson for prospects. One of those prospects, Freddy Garcia, finished second in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. Garcia was overused last year by Lou Pinella and will probably suffer an off year due to injury and lack of control. But if Pinella's abuse wasn't too severe, he should emerge as one of the better pitchers in the American League. Halama, the second pitcher brought over in the trade (Carlos Guillen was the third prospect in the deal) is a solid starter and a good fit for pitcher-friendly Safeco. The Mariners' staff will be headed up by veteran crafty lefty, Jamey Moyer. Moyer is often credited with inventing the changeup - well, maybe he's not that old - but actually has only been playing since 1986. He's not the ace type pitcher most teams want in the number one spot but he'll give a quality 200-225 innings. Aaron Sele signed from Texas this offseason is a nice right-handed compliment to Moyer. Both guys possess excellent curve balls and a solid change. Bret Tomko on the other hand has the stuff to be an ace starter but perhaps not the temperament. His fast ball reaches the mid-90's, has an excellent curve ball and a hard slider but doesn't like to throw inside. The thing that all ace starters have, whether they have a Randy Johnson fast ball or a Kevin Brown sinker or a Greg Maddux change, is a willingness to back the hitter off the plate with something inside. Until Tomko comes to grips with this, he will languish at the bottom of the rotation offering occasional brilliance starts mixed with some ugly pummelings. Gil Meche showed a lot of talent last year and will probably develop into a good middle of the rotation starter. The guy everyone is waiting for is 20 year old Ryan Anderson. The "Space Needle" is a near mirror image of Randy Johnson: he's a lefty, he throws in the upper nineties and possesses a nasty, nasty, nasty slider and is not afraid to plunk a hitter. The difference between the two is that Anderson has much much better control than Johnson had at this point in his career and Anderson stands 6' 11 1/2", an inch taller than Johnson. Once he arrives the Mariners will have a fearsome rotation. GRADE: 65
The Seattle bullpen still has questions. After five years of ineptitude this is still the Mariners' Achilles heel. However, GM Pat Gillick has done a fairly good job of shoring up this weakness. He brought in Kasuhiro Sasaki to close. Japan's all-time save leader doesn't possess the blazing fastball associated with most closers. His fastball is decent but his money pitch is the splitter. In 600 career innings he has struck out 828 Japanese League batters. He also possesses remarkable control. In his ten years in the Central League he has only walked 235 batters. For his career, in 405 games he saved 229. Gillick also brought in hard-throwing lefty Arthur Rhodes. When added to last year's closer, Jose Mesa, these two will make for a very difficult 8th and 9th inning for the opposition. Halama and journeyman Paul Abbott will act as the long relievers. GRADE: 60
Former GM Woody Woodward had a mixed bag as a GM. He did bring Randy Johnson from the Expos for Mark Langston and was able to swing Garcia, Guillen and Halama for a deadline deal for Johnson. On the down side, he gave up Mike Hampton for Eric Anthony; Bill Swift, Mike Jackson and Dave Burba for about 200 at bats of Kevin Mitchell; Jose Cruz, Jr. for Paul Spoljaric and Mike Timlin; Sterling Hitchcock for Scott Sanders and numerous others what shall be euphemistically termed "bloopers". Without question he did a very good job of developing the Seattle farm system. Pat Gillick on the other hand is less of a developer and more of a builder. The Toronto and Baltimore farm systems under his guidance did not flourish but rather remained static. The major league clubs on the other hand did very well. The Blue Jays won two World Series under Gillick and the O's had one of the best records in baseball. Gillick is one of the best at making the deadline deal so if the Mariners are in the hunt, rest assured they will be better down the stretch. Manager Lou Pinella has gained a reputation as being a very good game tactician and he is also viewed with great respect in his ability to manage a team over the course of ta full season. However he is a highly emotional manager who has had some highly publicized run-ins with his players and is notorious for allowing young pitchers to ring up abusively high pitch counts. How well he treats Anderson, Mesh, Halama and Garcia could very well determine Seattle's fortunes for this year and the near future. GRADE: 65