San Diego PadresIt might be surprising to learn that over the past 4 years, the Padres have the best winning percentage of any team in the NL West (.523). Having a smart owner (John Moores), a visionary team president (Larry Lucchino) and a shrewd evaluator of talent as your GM (Kevin Towers) will do that for you. And while manager Bruce Bochy is not a particularly good evaluator of talent on the field, nor is he a good game tactician, he is a great motivator and emotional leader who generally gets his players to play to their potential. The Padres have an additional advantage in that they carry an extra hitting coach: 8-time batting champion Tony Gwynn. Still, having good players and playing them helps.
Towers tried an experiment last year: build a team on speed and contact hitting. The plan might have worked had 1) the "speed" and "contact hitting" portions of the line-up not been as injury prone and 2) the team been fully committed to it. Through the first month, Bochy was reluctant to allow speed demon Damian Jackson take over from Chris Gomez at shortstop, and Quilvio Veras, Reggie Sanders, Wally Joyner and Tony Gwynn were plagued with injuries. In May, Gomez decided his knees were bothering him so much that he needed surgery, giving Jackson his chance. The speed/contact strategy began to work in June as all the speedsters and hitters were healthy, culminating in a 14 game winning streak. But for whatever reason, Bochy decided on July 1 that his veteran shortstop, Chris Gomez, could not lose his job from an injury, despite the team's success. The Pads were 1 game out of first place at the time. Gomez was reinstalled at short and they lost 18 of their next 21, knocking them out of the race. I don't believe the Pads failure last year can be placed solely on Gomez, nor can credit for their brief success be given solely to Jackson. It's just an odd coincidence. Part of the failure can be divided between Ruben Rivera and Bruce Bochy. Rivera was completely ineffective last year at the plate except for the month of July. In July, he hit .294, got on base over 40% of the time and slugged over .600. During the other months, he was simply pitiful. And Bochy took 4 months to realize that George Arias, Dave Magadan, Carlos Baerga and Eric Owens were not good enough to be major league regulars at third base. In August, he decided to give Phil Nevin a try. Nevin didn't disappoint and now the Pads have a very good everyday third baseman.
This year, the Padre strategy will be different. Gone are Reggie Sanders and Quilvio Veras, as well as Wally Joyner. In their places are Ryan Klesko, Bret Boone and Al Martin. None of the new guys are as complete a players as the guys they replace, but they do add to the team in other ways, namely health. Contrary to what the Pads had last year, the new guys are pretty good about staying in the line-up and playing through nicks. The Pads also sacrificed on base percentage for more slugging with the moves. However, with the exception of Boone replacing Veras, none of the losses in OBP is dramatic. It should be noted that Boone will not be leading off as Veras did. He'll likely be hitting in the 6th or 7th slot in the line-up, where his on base percentage is less crucial and his slugging advantage over Veras is more beneficial. Martin, who will initially take over at lead off, also suffers by comparison to Veras in OBP, but has shown that he can be almost as productive in the role. There is some concern that Klesko will continue to struggle against lefties, but 25-year old Marlin refugee John Roskos (like Brian Daubach last year) looks like a solid candidate for a platoon role at first. In addition to those changes, Jackson should take over at shortstop full time and Carlos Hernandez will return from an injury induced one year lay-off and likely reassume starting catcher duties. The Pads currently have too many good catchers and are looking for a solution. Ben Davis has proved that he doesn't need any more seasoning in the minors and could become a star player if given the opportunity. Rule 5 pick Wiki Gonzales showed he's ready for full-time play in the bigs as well. If Hernandez, known more for his defense and savvy with pitchers, proves he's completely healthy this spring, the Pads will look to trade him and his unproductive bat. If they are unable to deal him, either Gonzales will be traded or Davis will waste some more time in AAA. Many prognosticators feel Nevin will come back to earth this year after his stellar finish. But the numbers don't really point in that direction. Whenever he has been given a chance to play regularly at third base, his natural position and the one for which he won the Golden Spikes and College World Series MVP awards, he has been very good. In 1996, he split the year at third in Detroit and with their AA farm club. He hit .293 for the year with 30 homers, an OBP over .350 (just like last year) and a slugging over .525 (just like last year). On the whole, the moves Towers made on offense are a risky gambit. At worst, this offense could be reminiscent of the recent Dodger clubs but with fewer sluggers. not pretty. On the other hand, assuming Jackson and Davis become starters, given the minor league records of the young players, it's easily conceivable that this team could field 7 hitters with on base of better than .340 and all 8 starters slugging better than .425, an almost Yankee-like line-up. wow. The Pads have a decent bench with a good pinch hitter in Magadan, infield depth with Ralph Milliard and Ed Sprague, and outfield depth with Eric Owens and rookies Kory Dehaan and Mike Darr. Injuries shouldn't hurt this team as much as they might others in this division. The key to the Pads offensive success this year will probably be Bruce Bochy. Will he be satisfied with the performance he's getting from Rivera, Davis and Jackson this spring to give them the full-time jobs? Or will he find ways to get Gomez, Hernandez, and Owens too many unproductive at bats. GRADE: 55
The Pads have several very good defensive players but several that are below average. Rivera is considered by many as the best defensive centerfielder outside of Atlanta. Phil Nevin ranks in the top 10 in the majors in range and fielding at third. Damian Jackson has unbelievable range but suffers from occasional mental lapses resulting in a lot of errors. Chris Gomez, his competition at short, is more sure handed but doesn't possess nearly the range. Shortstop duties were split fairly evenly between the two last year, with very little variation in the line-ups they played in. A situation like this is fairly rare at shortstop - it also occurred with the Brewers last year but before that, it occurred in the NL in 1993 with the Braves and before that, the 1970-71 Reds. When it occurs it gives a unique perspective for evaluating the two players. The result was fairly conclusive: the Padre groundball pitchers (or, the ones who give shortstops the most fielding chances) gave up 15% fewer non-homer hits (shortstops can't do much about homers) with Jackson behind them at short. Ben Davis and Wiki Gonzales both possess excellent arms and very good defensive skills. At the other end of the spectrum, Al Martin, Ryan Klesko and Tony Gwynn don't possess much range, although Gwynn is still a very accurate thrower. Bret Boone has a reputation for being a very good defender but his numbers over the past several years show he's rather average at everything but turning double plays. If Jackson can reduce his errors and either Davis or Gonzales assume the starting catching role, the Pads might be an above average to good fielding team. GRADE: 60 w/Jackson, 50 otherwise
The Pads traded Andy Ashby this winter, leaving them with more questions in starting pitching than they've had in 4 years. Sterling Hitchcock assumes the role as #1 starter, but injuries, especially a bone spur in his ankle, have already compromised his performance this spring and will probably plague him until he gets it surgically repaired. For several years, Matt Clement has been projected as an "ace" type pitcher. Last year was his first full year in the majors and until September, those projections looked like they'd be another couple years waiting. But in September, Clement was just short of brilliant: 32.1 innings pitched, 27 hits, 12 walks, 27 Ks, 2.23 ERA. The Pads were impressed enough to give him a 4-year deal this winter. So far this spring, that vote of confidence is paying off as he's been even more impressive than last September. While it's too optimistic to say he'll reach the upper echelon of pitchers this year, he looks poised for a very good season. Woody Williams and Brian Meadows are both pitchers with average stuff but a good working knowledge of how to move the ball around in the strikezone and how to adjust the speeds of their pitches. If they can get good defense behind them, they can be effective. Brian Boehringer, attempting to make the transition from relieving to starting, is coming off shoulder surgery. He's probably more suited to starting than relieving as he has occasional bouts with wildness in the strikezone. He and 21-year old Buddy Carlyle will compete for the 5th spot. Carlton Loewer, who came over in the Ashby deal but is out until mid-season with a broken leg, will push his way into the rotation when he returns. With a healthy Hitchcock, the Pads have a decent starting staff. If they go without him this season, either due to injury or a rumored trade, then they are pedestrian, Clement excepted. However, the Pads have several very good pitchers in the minors and 2 in particular, Adam Eaton, who also came over in the Ashby deal, and 1999 1st round pick Mike Bynum, are close and could be as good as Clement in the next few years. But for this year, the Pads might be fortunate to get 60 wins from this rotation. GRADE: 50 w/Hitchcock, 40 without
The Pads bullpen begins and ends with Trevor Hoffman. He is generally regarded as the best closer in baseball over the past 4 years and the key pitcher to the Pads success over that period. This year, it looks like he will have a potentially very good supporting staff. Steve Montgomery, yet another arm from the Ashby trade, and Donne Wall will share setup duties from the right side. Matt Whisenant will get the call from the left side. Montgomery, who was groomed as a closer in the Phillies' system, and Whisenant both have good velocity and movement. Wall doesn't possess their stuff, but, like Hoffman, does possess an excellent change-up and a complete fearlessness to throw any pitch, any time. Randy Myers' came to camp in good shape in his comeback from arm surgery, but at 37, is probably a long shot to contribute. However, if he's healthy enough to return to form, he could be helpful, either as an additional lefty or in trade. Kevin Towers developed a back up plan with the bullpen this offseason by acquiring three solid relievers via minor league free agency. Oscar Henriquez was once slated to compete with Billy Wagner for Houston's closer role before being traded to Florida for Moises Alou. Matt Dunbar and Luis Andujar were both highly touted prospects before injuries derailed their rise to the majors. Their winter league performance this year indicates they have fully recovered. All three could see significant time in the Padre bullpen this year. Will Cunnane and hard-throwing Brandon Kolb are also inviting possibilities. Regardless, the Pads have more quality arms than they have spots in the bullpen, so there's a very good chance that the Pads will have the best bullpen in the division and one of the best in baseball. GRADE: 70
GM Kevin Towers is one of the best talent evaluators in the game. But he hasn't had a great deal of success with mid-season deals. Greg Vaughn flopped in 1996 before breaking out in 1998. Randy Myers flopped in 1998. Jim Leyritz was huge in the playoffs for the Pads in 1998, but didn't do a whole lot in the stretch run for them. Regardless, the Pads didn't give up much to get any of those guys, so it probably comes out a net plus. Most of Towers success has come through winter and spring trades and free agent signings: Phil Nevin for Andy Sheets last year. In 1998, Kevin Brown for Derrek Lee, Raphael Medina and Steve Hoff. Mike Darr for Jody Reed in 1997. Signing Bob Tewksbury, Fernando Valenzuela and Rickey Henderson in 1996. If he continues to follow form, look for any deal Towers makes this spring to turn out pretty well and anything he does during the season to have little, if any, positive effect. Bruce Bochy inspires incredible loyalty in his players and because of this, his players play hard for him for every out of every game. Unfortunately, their leader doesn't always come through for them with a good strategy. He has a predilection for low percentage maneuvers (like employing the hit-and-run with the pitcher at the plate and a catcher at first base) and a tendency to waste resources in a game (like pinch run with his fastest runner, and then bunt him over). However, being a former catcher, he has a strong eye for when his pitcher is tiring and is an perhaps the best handler of young pitchers in baseball. GRADE: 65