2001 New York Yankees
The Yanks managed to win the World Series last year despite coming into the playoffs with the 9th best record in baseball. Part of that was due to luck: they didn't have to face Oakland's Hudson and Zito twice in the Division Series because of the tight division race in the West; nor did they have to face either of the NL's best teams, St. Louis or San Francisco. Instead, they faced Gil Heredia twice in the ALDS, a Seattle team that didn't have as much pitching depth in the ALCS and a Mets team in the World Series against which they matched up very nicely. However, last year gave some clues that the Yanks' foundation may be cracking and may need more than the midseason quick fixes that won them the division.
Offense
The Yankees offense heading into June was struggling mightily. Over the next month, GM Brian Cashman traded for 2 outfielders, 2 middle infielders and a DH. Both of the outfielders, David Justice and Glenallen Hill, posted career best numbers in pinstripes. It's unlikely that at their ages, 35 and 36 respectively, that they will continue that surge. Paul O'Neill, who is now 38, is on the decline. Centerfielder Bernie Williams is a solid player but not much more: he's topped 170 hits just twice in his 10-year career and reached 30 home runs for the first time last year. And while hitting 30 home runs used to be a big deal, last year Williams was one of 47 players to accomplish the feat; not exactly an exclusive group anymore. For the past 2 years, Scott Brosius has been one of the worst hitting third basemen in the majors. Likewise for Tino Martinez at first. If Chuck Knoblauch weren't one of the best offensive second basemen in baseball, his defensive struggles might not be so tragic. If he can overcome his throwing problems, second base will be one less problem the Yanks will have to solve. Otherwise, they face the prospect of 550+ ABs from Luis Sojo, which probably isn't a good thing. The Yanks do have 2 prospects who might be able to fill the void should Knoblauch fail to regain his confidence - D'Angelo Jimenez and Alfonso Soriano. Soriano has gotten most of the publicity but Jimenez is the much better player. Jorge Posada had a breakout year last year and was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball. However, his second half numbers show reason for concern: his OPS dropped over 100 points, his strikeout to walk ratio tumbled and his contact rate dropped below 70%. Whether that was due to fatigue from playing his first full season or other factors remains to be seen. If it was more than fatigue, with the change in the strikezone this year, his power will fall off a bit and he could struggle to keep his batting average above .250. Derek Jeter is the 3rd best offensive shortstop in the majors, which is quite an accomplishment considering his competition. Still, Jeter, Williams and Posada won't be enough to keep the Yankee offense afloat this season. They will need Knoblauch to recover and super-hitting prospect Nick Johnson to spend most of the season at either first base or DH for them to avoid the need for a major overhaul by midseason. Even then, they will probably need to make a few moves if they hope to win the championship again. RATING: 50 (60 w/Knoblauch+Johnson; 45 without)
Defense
One thing the Yanks do well at nearly every position is play defense. They might not have great range at each position but they rarely beat themselves in the field. They position themselves well, they throw to the right places and they make accurate throws. The only liability on D is Knoblauch, which is amazing because just a few years ago, he was a gold glove second baseman. Still, if he can't get his throwing problem fixed, Sojo is a fine defensive replacement. Either way, their defense will be solid. RATING: 60
Starting Pitching
A big reason for the Yankees dominance for the past 5 years (at least, on the field) is the strength and depth of their pitching. While the Red Sox may have posted better team ERAs, no team in the AL has had as much talent top to bottom as the Yanks. After their #1 starter, the Sox have been fairly weak in the rotation. Not true of the Yanks - each year they've boasted 4 or 5 really good starters. The Yanks made a big splash in November by signing free agent Mike Mussina. Mussina has been one of the best starters in the AL for nearly a decade but he hasn't been recognized as such because of the woeful Oriole teams he's played on. Roger Clemens made headlines last year more for his run-ins with Mike Piazza than with his pitching, but that didn't stop him from posting a reasonably good year. He's still a quality starter, but at 38, his best days are behind him. Nolan Ryan pitched effectively until he was 44; mere mortals usually crumble before 40. Speaking of age, who knows how old Orlando Hernandez is. Only the Yankees and STATS Inc list him as 31 years old. Most accounts have him at least 35. If he is just 31, then last year's injuries are probably no concern. If he's actually much older, then they could be the precursor of a downhill slide. Andy Pettitte, along with Cristian Laettner, might be the luckiest man in sports. Pettitte's career numbers are not those of one of the winningest pitchers in the majors over the past 5 years, and yet there he is. How does he do it? Run support and cheating. For his career he has averaged 6.27 runs of support. Last year he got 7.61 runs per game, best in the AL, 2nd best in the majors. The cheating? watch his pick-off move. It's a balk. His knee goes past his his plant leg and he waivers for just a millisecond before delivering. Both merit a balk call. Why no one calls it is anybody's guess. Probably for the same reason no one calls a ball above the belt a strike. Regardless, Pettitte is a smart pitcher who takes advantage of any detail that might benefit him, and that, ultimately, is why he wins. Dwight Gooden found the fountain of youth in the second half last year and is the front runner for the 5th spot. Even with the Mussina signing, the Yanks have some questions in the rotation: how will the new strikezone affect Pettitte? Can Gooden fill the 5th starter spot for the whole year? If not, can the Yanks find a candidate from their relatively weak farm system (in terms of pitching talent) or will this be yet another position they must repair with a trade? Will age catch up to Clemens, Gooden and/or Hernandez? If everything goes right, the Yanks will have one of the best staffs in the AL. If they don't, they'll simply be above average. RATING: 65
Bullpen
Mariano Rivera is one of the best closers in baseball. There are strong arguments that can be made that he is the best, period. This year, that assertion might be put to the test. The Yanks lost right handed set-up man Jeff Nelson to free agency and really haven't done anything to replace him. Brian Boehringer is the most likely candidate but his tendency to walk batters will not help him secure the job. There are still questions whether Ramiro Mendoza shoulder has healed. Without him, the Yankee bullpen is increasingly suspect, despite the presence of Rivera at the end. RATING: 55 (60 if Mendoza returns, 50 otherwise)
Management
Joe Torre isn't gonna win many games with his in-game strategy. He just lets his players play. Fortunately for him, when you have as much talent as the Yanks have had, that's the best strategy. It's amazing how many managers don't understand this simple concept and end up losing because they overmanage their teams. GM Brian Cashman and the rest of the Yankees front office is one of the most forward-thinking in baseball, using every means available - from advanced sabermetrics to international scouts in every nook and cranny on the globe - to acquire talent. They also have more money than anyone to acquire that talent. This is as close to an unbeatable combination as there is in sports. RATING: 80
Summary
About the only thing that can stop the Yanks from winning it all again is age and even that's a 50/50 proposition. They showed last year they can replace a quarter of the team during the season if need be. If all their older players start to fall apart this year, they may have to replace as much as a third. But with their resources, it's quite conceivable they could do it. The Red Sox have definitely improved, but if the AL Central is as competitive as it appears, the Yanks could still have the inside track to the wild card. Either way, because of their deep pockets and willingness to use them, it's hard to bet against the Yanks from making the playoffs.