New York MetsThe Mets have tried for two years to do what the Marlins did in 1997: beat the Braves when it counted. Both times they've failed. but each time they've gotten closer. This winter, Steve Phillips tried to get them over the top with the acquisition of OF Derek Bell and Astro ace Mike Hampton..
The Mets offense ranked 5th in runs scored last year, which is rather impressive considering the tough park they play in. However, that'll be tough to repeat. Rickey Henderson had a monster year in 1999 but at 41, probably won't come close to matching it. Yes, he's the greatest leadoff man in the history of baseball, but how many players hit .315 and steal 37 bases when they're 41? No one has ever done it. Only Davey Lopes ever stole as many as 25 bases at that age. Only Stan Musial and Cap Anson have ever hit above .315 after age 40. And only Luke Appling has ever topped Henderson's .423 OBP after age 40. As great as Rickey is, it looks more likely that he'll match the production he had from 1996-1998: .240 BA/.400 OBP/.345 SLG. Henderson has made noises about wanting to be traded. Steve Phillips has categorically denied that he'll trade Rickey, but the fact that Henderson was playing cards in the clubhouse during Game 6 of the NLCS last year after he was taken out of the game will probably loosen Phillips grip on keeping him. The Mets also lost John Olerud to free agency. Olerud provided a steady presence in front of Piazza and Ventura in the form of a .427 OBP and .463 slugging. He's being replaced by Todd Zeile, who's career numbers are .347 OBP and a .430 slugging. The Mets will also be without speed demon Roger Cedeno, who went to Houston along with P Octavio Dotel in exchange for Hampton and Bell. Cedeno was a huge boon to the offense, switching between the #2 and the #8 spot in the line-up. He provided very good on base (.396) and great speed, leading the National League in steals for much of the season, finishing with 66 and an 81% steal rate. The Mets will still have Piazza and Ventura in the heart of the order, but both are coming off years in which they reached or topped career highs in a number of categories. Many commentators believe that Edgardo Alfonzo had a career year last year, but at 26, it's hard to believe that the only direction he can go is down. While he probably won't see any more quantum jumps in his production, it's quite reasonable to assume he can come close to last year's numbers. Daryl Hamilton will once again man centerfield. He doesn't have a lot of power or a lot of speed, but he gets on base and does enough of the little things very well, like bunting and moving runners over, to still be a valuable offensive player. With the arrival of Derek Bell, "Hawaiian Punch" Benny Agbayani will be relegated to a bench role, or perhaps traded. The unfortunate thing is that he's actually a better offensive player than Bell. His OBP is 20 points higher for his career and his slugging is 80 points higher. One has to wonder what the Mets saw in Derek Bell. Agbayani could get playing time if Henderson gets traded. Likewise, hitting machine Jay Payton or journeyman slugger John Nunnally could get a shot at the spot. Payton is rather injury prone and not a particularly adept fielder, but when healthy, he can flat out rake. In the best of all possible worlds for the Mets, they find a way to get Payton and Agbayani 500 ABs apiece and Nunnally 400. As a defensive player, there are few more exciting and talented than SS Rey Ordonez. But as an offensive player, there are few who are worse. He doesn't get on base (.288 career), he doesn't hit for power (.297), he doesn't steal bases, and he's not particularly good at bunting or hitting behind the runners. And he swings at just about everything. He showed some improvement last year, but at 27, it doesn't seem likely that he'll ever improve enough to even be major league average with the bat. GRADE: 50
The Mets were two different teams on defense last year. Their infield defense was the best in the majors; their outfield, one of the worst. Ordonez and Alfonzo have excellent range and, like Vince Carter of the Toronto Raptors, seem to do something spectacular everyday that makes you say, "Wow!". Ventura is well above average at third. Olerud was quite good as well. This year, they will have Zeile at first instead of Olerud which could cause some problems. Zeile has been working this offseason with former fielding great Keith Hernandez, but even that might not make him an average fielder at first. Currently, the Mets have the same problems they had last year in the outfield: no range and no arms. Henderson, Hamilton and Bell all rank near the bottom in range and only Bell has even an above average arm. The other two have poor arms. As big as the outfield is in Shea, that's a big problem. Piazza has always been labeled as a poor defensive catcher because he doesn't throw out runners particularly well. He doesn't have good footwork and is a bit slow to get to balls that stray. However, he calls a good game and blocks the plate reasonably well, so he comes out average to slightly below average on the defensive side. GRADE: 60
The big move for the Mets this offseason was acquiring "ace" Mike Hampton. Hampton was very good last year, winning 22 decisions, and is only 26, so he may very well be an ace. But he has several things working against him repeating his success this season: 1) he was the beneficiary of nearly 7 runs of support last season. That kind of run support occurs about as often as 50 home run seasons for hitters - it happens but not very often. 2) he's playing in a more hitter friendly park with roughly the same quality infield defense but a much worse outfield defense, and 3) his walk rates are very high for a guy who doesn't strike out a lot of batters. Hampton is definitely a good pitcher, but probably not a guy who dominates the opposition: before last year, he averaged between 13 and 14 wins per 200 innings. That's probably a more reasonable expectation. Behind Hampton, the Mets will have Rick Reed, Al Leiter and Bobby Jones in the rotation. It's an interesting mix because the right handers (Reed and Jones) are extreme control pitchers and the left handers (Hampton and Leiter) are rather wild. Leiter throws as hard as any lefty starter in the league not named Johnson. And he's great fun to watch because he's so openly passionate about the game. But his control problems limit his effectiveness because he can't go deep into games, often getting lifted without a chance at the decision. Reed and Jones both have excellent change-ups and can be very effective if they are hitting their spots. But their stuff is pretty weak and if they don't have pinpoint control, they can get pummeled. Glendon Rusch has been named the 5th starter after having a very good spring. Originally selected by the Royals, he struggled for the past two years in the bigs before getting dealt to the Mets last September. He has above average stuff for a left hander and good control. He's only 25 and a very good candidate to move up in the rotation if Bobby Jones shoulder continues to bother him. Paul Wilson, once the best pitching prospect in baseball, is still trying to comeback from arm and shoulder woes that stemmed from overwork at the hands of former Met Manager Dallas Green. He pitched briefly this spring and scheduled to make his return to the majors sometime mid-season. GRADE: 60
The Mets have a very good and deep bullpen. Armando Benitez is a hard throwing closer who nearly matches Billy Wagner with Nintendo-like strikeout totals. Last year he struck out 128 of the 312 batters he faced. Setting him up will be former lefty closer John Franco and colorful right hander Turk Wendell. Franco possesses and excellent sinker and change-up, and would rather eat a live rattlesnake than throw either in a spot that a batter can handle (sometimes referred to as a "strike"). Consequently, he throws a lot of pitches and gets a lot of full counts. That's not necessarily a bad thing for a reliever unless you stop getting guys out. Wendell was groomed as the Cubs closer-to-be before getting traded to the Mets in 1997. He's the opposite of Franco - letting it all hang out and seeing if the batter can hit his stuff. Both guys usually get very good results. Veteran lefty Dennis Cook also gets occasional setup duties. Right-handed Pat Mahomes is a solid long reliever/spot starter. Lefties Rich Rodriguez, Bill Pulsipher and Bobby M. Jones will also contribute, although it may be through a trade to acquire outfield help. GRADE: 70
GM Steve Phillips does a good job of acquiring talent. Last year he got Kenny Rogers in a deadline deal, who almost took the Mets to the World Series. But there has been a growing rift between him and manager Bobby Valentine for the past year and it nearly came to a head this spring. It began when Phillips fired much of the Mets coaching staff last May when the Mets were struggling. Most of those guys had been hand-picked by Valentine. There have been several other personnel issues come up which brings the story up to date. Valentine has always been a fiery manager and has been accused of creating chaos and controversy in his own clubhouse to motivate players. He's also been accused of overmanaging games and there is evidence to support that claim. It's interesting that, until last year, his teams were always very good in stretches but found a way to miss the playoffs. If Valentine's Mets get off to a slow start, it's likely they'll be someone else's Mets by mid-summer. GRADE: 55