Montreal ExposNew York art dealer Jeffery Loria bought a majority share of ownership in the Montreal Expos this past winter for $50 million and promised: 1) that the talent exodus would end, 2) that he'd get the team a new stadium and 3) that he'd build a winner in Montreal. He's still working on the stadium but, from spring indications, he's held true to the other two promises. So far he's added about $12 million in salary this year and has fired up the baseball fan base in Montreal, currently numbering around 10,000, with his slogan ,"Why not us?". Actually, why not them? The Elias Sports Bureau used to produce a baseball annual with player and team evaluations and all sorts of interesting studies that ran the gamut of identifying the true "clutch hitters" in baseball" to career comparisons and projections. Something else they came up with was a formula that identified teams likely to improve dramatically from the previous year. It stated that any team that played at least 5 games under .500 in one-run games the previous season AND posted a spring training winning percentage at least 100 points better than its regular season record the previous season would improve dramatically in the standings that year. The study ran from 1980 to 1988. During that period 21 teams met the criteria. Every one of them improved by at least 15 games in the standings. Seven teams have qualified under that criteria in the last 5 years, including the '97 Marlins. Every one of them improved by at least 13 games in the standings. The reasoning is that one-run games are often decided by a luck. The best teams almost always win the lopsided games, but the one-run games often hinge on a strike call or a non-strike call or a single ball lost in the lights. So a bad record in one run games isn't always an indicator of a bad team. And spring training records do matter. Teams that win tend to breed a winning attitude. It doesn't always work out that way. Likewise, just because a team has a good April doesn't mean they're gonna win the division. But it helps. Anyway, the Expos are one of this year's two teams that qualify under this formula. So, why not them?
The Montreal offense ranked 14th last year. Most pundits point to the fact that they drew the fewest walks in the majors as the biggest problem. They forget that they were the youngest team in the majors as well, with no full-time player older than 28. Young players tend to be impatient. That problem will take care of itself. This year, rookie centerfielder Peter Bergeron will assume the lead off spot. Bergeron has often been compared to Steve Finley in terms of talent and skills, but Finley was never this disciplined at the plate. Bergeron has averaged a .380 OBP in the minors over the past 2 years and offered a .370 OBP in his brief callup last year. His base stealing skills need some work as he gets caught way too often, but he has good speed, so there's potential for him to become an elite leadoff man. Second baseman Jose Vidro is suited to bat second in the line-up as he has excellent bat control and emerging power. Last year he hit 12 homers and 45 doubles. He hit as many as 18 homers in the minors, so a 20 homer season is not out of the realm of possibility. He's a very good candidate to become the best hitting second baseman of the first decade of this century. Think Carlos Baerga in his heyday. The big gun in the Expo lineup is right fielder Vladimir Guerrero. A lot of commentators say he's the best player no one's ever heard of, but that's simply not true. Everyone has heard of this guy because people are always talking about how no one has ever heard of him. Regardless, he's simply amazing. He possesses unbelievable tools. I've personally seen him hit a line drive to the right centerfield wall on a ball off his shoe tops for a double, and throw a guy out at third from the corner wall of the outfield, with the ball never traveling more than 10 feet above the ground and reaching the third baseman on the fly. There are stories of him hitting a bounced curve over the centerfield wall for a homer. He has very long and powerful arms that allow him tremendous plate coverage and he has extremely good hand eye coordination, so it's very hard to strike him out on a pitch he can't reach. And that might be his biggest flaw. Because he can reach out and hit a ball that's 6 inches outside, he's not particularly selective at the plate. So he gets himself out with pitches he can't do a whole lot with. If he learns to be a little more discriminating, he could be phenomenal. As it is, he's merely unbelievable. Rondell White seems rather plain by comparison, but he's an excellent hitter with good power and above average speed. He's been somewhat injury prone over the past 5 years, mostly suffering hamstring and knee problems which have robbed him of some of his speed. But he's still a good hitter. GM Jim Beattie felt he needed a veteran presence in the line-up and his answer was to trade doubles machine Brad Fullmer for more defensive minded Lee Stevens. Stevens does have average home run power for a first baseman and is pretty consistent - the past 3 years his OPS has been .850, .836 and .829. The Expos will allow Michael Barrett to settle in as third baseman this year after shuttling between there and catcher last year. Barrett was drafted as a shortstop, but has taken to playing third. He's already drawing comparisons to Scott Rolen on offense, although that seems a bit premature. Still in a year or two, fans will have a devil of a time choosing the NL representative at third for the All Star Game - Rolen in Philly, Jones in Atlanta, Tatis in St. Louis, Ramirez in Pittsburgh, Beltre in Los Angeles, Nevin/Burroughs in San Diego, Ventura in New York, Barrett in Montreal... tough, tough choices. Chris Widger is about average at catcher, although he could become a good power threat if he'd be a little more selective at the plate. The shortstop job will fall to either Orlando Cabrera or Geoffrey Blum. Blum looks like the early favorite this spring and has the higher upside offensively. Cabrera has more speed and is the better defender. Manager Felipe Alou will probably go with Blum and take his chances on defense. GRADE: 60
Defensively the Expos have talent, but due to youth or poor coaching they undermine their talent with an inordinate amount of mistakes. Lee Stevens is a very good fielding first baseman (his numbers are better than JT Snow's) and should be able to cover many of the bad throws from the youthful infield. Barrett has a shortstop's range and a strong arm. Vidro is kinda' like Jeff Kent in that he doesn't have good range or a good arm, but make the plays he should make. Cabrera is a very good defensive player, with very soft hands, good range and a good arm. His defense has even been compared to that of Rey Ordonez. If he could learn to draw walks, he would be a good enough offensive player with his speed to allow Alou to keep his defense in regularly. That might be asking a bit much. Blum has a very poor range for a shortstop and is more suited for utility work. Chris Widger has a good arm, but has such poor footwork and mechanics that his defense suffers. So why don't the Expos get Gary Carter to tutor him the way the Reds got Bench to tutor Taubensee. Taubensee was atrocious defensively, now he's merely poor. The Expos did actually sign the next best thing to Carter: Charlie O'Brien. O'Brien's days as an effective hitter are long past, but he is one of the best defensive catchers around. As well as being an innovator (he's designed and introduced the hockey goalie-type catcher's mask that's so popular these days), he is a brilliant game caller and receiver. If his wisdom could rub off on Widger the way he did with Javy Lopez, the Expos could have themselves a very good catcher. The outfield has great range and they all read the ball very well off the bat. White and Bergeron have below average arms, Guerrero has the strongest arm in the majors. White and Bergeron are polished defensively, throwing to the right bases, hitting the cutoff man, etc. Guerrero still makes a lot of mistakes due to over-enthusiasm. If he could ever reign in his exuberance and focus, he could be another Roberto Clemente on defense. GRADE: 50
When the Expos agreed to trade Pedro Martinez in 1997, they did so under the condition that they be given Carl Pavano and Tony Armas, Jr. No substitutes would be accepted. That perseverance is about to pay off. Pavano has been dominating this spring, and his shoulder and elbow look completely healthy for the first time in 3 years. Dustin Hermansen will still be the opening day starter, but Pavano will eventually be the ace. Hermansen began his career as a closer for Kent University and was drafted for that role. Two trades later (once for Quilvio Veras and once for Cliff Floyd), Alou decided he'd be more effective as a starter. Alou had made a similar conversion with Jeff Fassero. True to form, Hermansen has become a very good starter. He had a rough first half due to some physical problems last year, but came on strong after July. His early spring results bode well for a return to the form he showed in 1998, when people were talking about him becoming the next Montreal pitching sensation. Javier Vasquez had an up and down year in 1999. He had never pitched above A ball and was extremely inconsistent in the first half. The Expos sent him down to AAA for a month and a half to get some seasoning. When he returned, he was the Expos most consistent starter. Before the demotion he rarely went more than 6 innings. After, he routinely went 7+ and ended the season leading the team in complete games. Hideki Irabu came over from the Yankees in a trade that had many pundits moaning, "the Yanks robbed another small market team of it's best prospects." While it's true that Ted Lilly and Jake Westbrook are solid prospects, neither really project to be anything more than middle to bottom of the rotation starters. Irabu, on the other hand, when he's committed, can be a very good pitcher. His numbers in Japan were so dominating that many thought he was going to be a 20 game winner right off the bat. It didn't work out that way with the Yanks. For whatever reason - perhaps it was Steinbrenner calling him a fat toad - he never showed the talent he exhibited in Japan or the minors. This spring he's looked great, and at 31, may be poised for a breakout year. Rounding out the starting rotation will be Jeremy Powell. At 6'5'', 230 lbs, he's an intimidating figure on the mound. He's the least known of the Montreal starters, but might just have the highest upside. Armas, the other guy in the Martinez trade, finished the year in AA, with a brief call up to the majors. He was stellar and should be ready to join the rotation, if there's any room, by July. All 6 of these guys can rush the ball up to the plate in the low to mid 90's. All of them are G/F neutral (meaning they give up about an equal number of flyballs and groundballs) strikeout pitchers, so the average defense behind them isn't as crucial. And all of them have at least one good breaking pitch and a solid changeup. Under the right tutelage (hello, Charlie O'Brien), they might be the best top-to-bottom in the division. GRADE: 65
Ugueth Urtain Urbina. I just like saying it. Initials U.U.U. He has a brother and a sister who's initials are U.U.U. also. Apparently, his parents dug that, too. Opposing batters are not so enthusiastic. They hit just .208 against him last year. Urbina is in that class of closer with Armando Benitez, Billy Wagner and John Rocker: they strike out batters with pure gas. What makes Urbina special is that Alou likes to use Urbina the old fashioned way: he doesn't just start the ninth. Urbina led the majors in tough saves last year, coming in when things were really sticky (bases loaded no outs, etc.), when the club actually needs it's best reliever on the mound. Why more managers don't do this is beyond me. Few people know how good the rest of this bullpen is. Steve Kline did an excellent job from the left side setting up Urbina last year. He had the 3rd most holds of any lefty in the NL. Anthony Telford did an adequate job from the right side. This winter, the Expos doled out $9 million over 3 years to lefty specialist Graeme Lloyd. Lloyd's experience with the Yankees the past 3 years gives the Expos additional leadership in the pen. Scott Strickland and Miguel Batista both have excellent stuff and good control. Hard-throwing Felipe Lira has also joined the mix this spring. This is going to be a tough bullpen to face. GRADE: 65
It's hard to tell if GM Jim Beattie would do a good job with another club because every year he's been ordered to pare payroll. The Expos have a very good minor league system in place. Even with their scouting budget continually reduced, they still manage to crank out good prospects. Part of the reason is that they are consistent at every level what they teach their kids. Much like the Dodgers and Orioles used to do things, doing things the "Dodger Way" or the "Oriole Way", the Expos have established an "Expo Way". The other part of the Expo's minor league success is that every time Beattie has to dump a player because of salary, he's gotten a good return. Bergeron and ultimately Irabu were the result of dealing Carlos Perez, Mark Grudzialanek and Mike Lansing. He got potential star players for merely good ones. Now that Loria has given him the green light to spend, it'll be interesting to see how well he does trading major leaguer for major leaguer. His free agent signings (O'Brien, Lloyd) have inspired mixed reviews because those players don't appear to offer much, but what they offer, the Expos simply didn't have before. It's simply a matter of judging whether he overpaid. Felipe Alou is considered by many to be the best manager in baseball. Strong arguments can be made for others, but Alou is always recognized as one of the best. He's a good disciplinarian, an excellent game tactician, and for the young clubs he's had, a great father figure in the clubhouse. It'll be interesting to see how he deals with the veteran players they acquired. Alou is also a brilliant handler of young pitchers, mindful of pitch counts and excessive stresses on young arms. Alou last had a team this talented in 1994. That team finished with the best record in baseball and might have been the dominant team of the 90's had the work stoppage not cut the Expo's revenue stream off just as it was beginning to grow. If he has the tools, Alou can make a lot of things happen. GRADE: 70