Los Angeles Dodgers

I find it kind of amusing that every year for the past 5 years, most publications and baseball experts pick the Dodgers to win the West.  If you're keeping score, they're now 0 for 5.  The last time the Dodgers won the division was the labor-stoppage-shortened 1995 season when they edged Don Baylor's Rockies by a single game.  The year before, they beat out the Giants by 3.5 games.  Given a full season in either or both years, I'm certain the Dodgers would have found a way to fall out of first.  Last year, GM Kevin Malone pronounced that the Dodgers would meet the Yanks in the World Series.  Well, at least he was half right.  That appears to be the Dodgers' problem.

Every year, the Dodgers boast a line-up of at least 4 sluggers capable of hitting 30 homers apiece.  And every year, they finish low in the rankings of runs scored.  They got the slugging aspect of the offensive game down pat.  Half right.  Unfortunately, no one's ever on base so they end up hitting a lot of solo homers.  Last year, they continued the trend by signing Devon White to a three year deal to play centerfield.  White has one of the worst on base percentages of any regular player in the majors - .318.  This year, they're talking about working in Todd Hollandsworth into the offensive mix in center.  Unfortunately, his OBP is only .325.  The Dodgers did have one guy who had a consistently good on base at the top of the line-up.  Well, they HAD one.  Eric Young is now with the Cubs courtesy of a trade that packaged him and Ismael Valdes for Terry Adams, a young and occasionally successful reliever.  Anyway, it looks like they'll be replacing Young's career .369 OBP at the top of the line-up with either Mark Grudzialanek (.328) or Jose Vizcaino (.319).  With the exception of Gary Sheffield (.392) and Raul Mondesi replacement Shawn Green (.344), the Dodgers will have no regular player with an on base percentage of better than .335, although 3B Adrian Beltre is rapidly improving.  In addition to Young's on base, they dealt his speed, the only legitimate threat on the base paths the Dodgers had.  So the Dodgers will forgo manufacturing runs of any sort this year and hope to score all their runs via the home run, which they just might.  I guess this is where I offer my annual prediction that some Dodger player will finish the season with 35 homers and fewer than 50 RBI.  Anyway, even with the addition of Shawn Green, the Dodger offense doesn't look any better than last year's squad.  GRADE: 50

The Dodger defense was the cornerstone of the good teams of the 70's.  The Dodgers of the 90's abandoned defense in favor of homers and suffered the price.  The Dodgers of the new century might be re-learning the lessons of 30 years ago, but they certainly aren't committing to it.  Adrian Beltre is a very good defender coming into his own.  Shawn Green is also quite good.  If rookie Alex Cora can take over at shortstop instead of Jose Vizcaino, the Dodgers will have a third solid defender.  Todd Hundley clearly wasn't healthy last year.  Before his shoulder troubles he was one of the better defensive catchers in the league.  Last year was disastrous defensively as Hundley threw out a measly 18% of attempted base stealers.  Peter Gammons stated that Hundley improved his percentage as the season went on, even going so far as to say that he threw out 35% of basestealers in September.  Even if that is true and Hundley is completely back, the Dodgers still have defensive concerns in left field (where Sheffield is always an adventure), center (Hollandsworth or White - both are below average), 2nd base (Grudzialanek or Vizcaino - again both below average) and 1st base (Karros).  For a team that fields 4 groundball starting pitchers, that's not exactly a good sign. GRADE: 45

On paper, the Dodger rotation looks pretty good.  Kevin Brown is one of the best starters in the league and there're few better when a big game is one the line.  Everyone always marvels at Darren Dreifort's stuff, saying if he ever learns to throw strikes, he'll be pretty unhittable.  For the final two months last year, it looked like they were right.  In 61.2 innings in August and September, he allowed 58 hits and 15 walks (1.183 WHIP... wow!) while striking out 41 and compiling a 2.92 ERA.  Chan Ho Park struggled last year.  He never lost velocity, but did lose control of the strike zone.  Any number of theories were offered, from him worrying too much about baserunners and possibly altering his mechanics to arm fatigue from the international competition last winter.  Regardless, much is expected of him this year.  Eric Gagne advanced all the way from AA last year to perform admirably in a brief stint in the majors.  All his ratios look solid and there's very little to indicate that he was performing above his talent level.  There are still some concerns, however, as he is just a year removed from arm surgery and he did pile up a lot of innings (197.2... geez!) last year.  The last spot in the rotation will probably go to Orel Hershiser. who is back in Dodger blue after a 5 year sojourn around the majors.  How much he has left in his 41 year old arm is anybody's guess, but it's pretty safe to say that won't be benefiting from same generous run support and stingy defense that he enjoyed last year.  GRADE: 55

The bullpen of the Dodgers look pretty solid with closer Jeff Shaw at the end.  Newly acquired Terry Adams will get most of the setup duties and probably get a few opportunities to close on Shaw's days off.  Gregg Olson will help with setup as well.  Onan Masaoka and Alan Mills round out the late relief.  Matt Herges has looked promising this spring after a very good performance in the abbreviated Venezuelan League this winter.  There was talk of Carlos Perez making the rotation, but based on his performance last year and this spring, that seems highly unlikely.  He might find success in long relief... or not.  GRADE: 50

Dodger GM Kevin Malone is certainly good at paying out millions of dollars.  Three players - Brown, Sheffield and Green - command half of the Dodgers team salary.  The Dodgers, like the Giants, don't have a lot in the pipeline.  They can thank former GM Tommy Lasorda in large part for that, as he dealt future star Paul Konerko and several other quality prospects in order to make a run at 2nd place in 1998.  Even if the Dodgers find themselves in contention at the trading deadline, they may have a hard time making any deals without significantly increasing their payroll, which is already one of the highest in baseball.  Should they find something to offer, their recent history is not very assuring that they would acquire someone who could actually help the club.  On the other end of the spectrum, Davey Johnson is widely regarded as one of the best managers in history, having established the top winning percentage in the past 40 years.  He's an excellent game tactician and players always know where they stand with him.  He is somewhat of an innovator, being one of the first managers to use modern statistical breakdowns as a method of talent evaluation, and has an incredible knack for improving team offenses dramatically.  GRADE: 55