Houston Astros

The Astros will be moving to a new ballpark this year.  There is much debate whether it will be the extremely pitcher friendly venue that the Astrodome was or a hitter's heaven.  The left field line is certainly more inviting for right handed pull hitters than the dome was.  However, the centerfield will be huge.  Another concern for hitters is that humidity has a way of killing flyballs and there are few places outside the Amazon River Basin that are more humid than Houston.  I suspect that Enron Field will be a good pitchers' park when the retractable roof is open, and a slight hitters' park when the roof is closed.

The Astros have had a very good offense for several years, powered by two of the best all-around players in the game - 2B Craig Biggio and 1B Jeff Bagwell.  Both guys play very good defense, run the bases well, hit for average and with better than average power for their positions.  It could be argued that each is the best guy at his position in the majors.  Unfortunately for the Astros in the postseason, 2 guys aren't gonna carry an offense, especially if they can be pitched around.  And that is just what has happened.  Well, that and a lot of bad luck.  But that's likely to change this year.  OF Moises Alou is healthy once again after missing a season with a knee injury and should provide a solid third bat in the heart of the order.  Ken Caminiti seems to be fully recovered from his spate of injuries last year and playing on grass should be much easier wear on his body.  Even injured last year, he hit nearly .500 against the Braves in the NLDS and almost got the Astros past the first round by himself... quality hitter #4.  The Astros have groomed 3 solid outfield prospects in the past 3 years - Richard Hidalgo, Lance Berkman and Daryl Ward.  Ward is probably the best hitter of the three, Hidalgo is easily the best fielder.  The important thing here is all of these guys can hit and all of them get on base at a decent clip.  Two of the three, along with newly acquired Roger Cedeno will share the other two spots in the outfield.  Cedeno lead the majors for much of the season in stolen bases for the Mets hitting in the eighth spot in the order and sharing time with two other outfielders.  Any one of these four is an offensive upgrade over strikeout-plagued, walk-averse Derek Bell.  The Astros should have no trouble finding 2 more quality hitters from these guys.  At catcher, the Astros will start with Tony Eusebio, but will likely work in minor league hitting machine Mitch Meluskey to the point of sharing the duties.  Tim Bogar will start the season at short and highly touted prospect defensive wiz Adam Everett, who came over in the deal that sent centerfielder Carl Everett to the Red Sox, will be his back-up or his replacement this season or next.  Down lower in the minors, the 'Stros have SS Julio Lugo on the horizon.  He's not Everett's equal defensively, so he might see a position change, but he's a very good hitter with excellent speed.  Regardless of what happens at short, the Astros' lineup will contain at least 7 quality hitters who know the importance of getting on base.  This team has a very good chance to score 900+ runs, especially if Enron follows conventional wisdom and is more hitter friendly than the Astrodome.  There doesn't appear to be any let down on offense. GRADE: 70

The Astros will be one of the better defensive teams in the league.  Biggio, Bagwell and Caminiti have all won gold gloves, although Caminiti has lost some range since his gold glove days.  Bogar is one of the better fielding shortstops in the league.  Hidalgo and Cedeno are both upgrades defensively over Carl Everett.  Derek Bell had the worst range in the majors of any regular right fielder so it's hard to imagine the Astros suffering from his absence in the field.  Tony Eusebio is a slightly above major league average defensive catcher.  Mitch Meluskey looks to be rather average in that aspect of his game.  Moises Alou and perhaps whoever ends up in right field will be the only sub par defenders that the Astros will field on a regular basis.  And unlike many teams, the Astros pitchers are generally good fielders.  GRADE: 65

The starting rotation will miss the presence of lefty Mike Hampton, who won 22 games last year.  Of course, Hampton will likely miss the 6.78 runs of support (2nd in the NL) and the gold glove defense at first that he got from the Astros.  Shane Reynolds and Jose Lima will share the "ace" duties for the Astros.  Both are extremely stingy at giving up walks and both are decent strikeout pitchers.  But that's where the similarity ends.  Reynolds is an extreme groundball pitcher and should be helped immensely by the grass infield, especially with the quality of defense he has behind him on the infield.  Lima, on the other hand, as well as slated #3 starter Scott Elarton, is a flyball pitcher and might be affected by the change of venue.  Much depends on on how well the ball travels in the thick Houston air.  Rounding out the rotation will be some mix of injury plagued Chris Holt, ex-Met fireballing phenom Octavio Dotel, who came over in the deal that sent Hampton to New York, and ex-Met fireballing phenom-turned-well-traveled-grizzled-veteran Dwight Gooden.  While he doesn't have the amazing velocity he once had, Gooden has learned how to pitch.  He has looked pretty solid this spring and as funny as it may sound given his checkered past, he might be a good influence on youngsters Elarton and Dotel.  Houston should be able to make up for the guile of lefty Mike Hampton with the overpowering stuff from the middle and bottom of the rotation.  GRADE: 65

Speaking of overpowering stuff: no one strikes out more guys or gives up fewer hits pre inning or is more intimidating with his velocity than fireballing lefty closer Billy Wagner.  Wagner struck out 1.66 batters per inning last year, breaking his own record that he set in 1998.  He allowed only 59 baserunners and held hitters to a .135 batting average.  While it's not likely that he'll continue to improve at the rate he has, it's not out of the question that he can maintain this level of dominance for a few more years, given his stuff and resilient makeup.  Remember, this is a guy who's suffered through the tragedy of his in-laws being brutally murdered several years ago, and the scare of being hit in the eye with a line drive in 1998.  There doesn't appear to be any adversity that this guy can't overcome.  Behind Wagner, the Astros will have 3 above average right-handed hard-throwers - former closer Doug Henry, ex-Marlin setup Jay Powell and Jose Cabrera.  Trevor Miller will probably be the primary left hander out of the pen.  The Astros also have some depth in the pen with prospect Wade Miller, who's having a very good spring, and veteran journeyman lefty Erik Plantenburg.  GRADE: 65

Hunsicker is probably an above average GM.  He hasn't been taken on any deals recently, although he did pay a high price for 2 months of Randy Johnson in 1998.  The theory at the time was that they needed an ace starter to go deep in the playoffs and that Johnson was the best available.  As it turned out, they needed an extra bat to get past Kevin Brown, Sterling Hitchcock and the Padres that year.  As a result of the Johnson deal, the Astros lost out on 2 good starters and a solid infield player.  In the grand scheme of things, though, Hunsicker has done a decent job of replacing talent without ever breaking the bank.  Houston has fielded very competitive teams now for 6 years while remaining in the middle of the pack, team salary-wise.  The Astros biggest asset for the past 3 years, however, has been manager Larry Dierker.  He is one of the top game tacticians in the league, one of the best leaders in the clubhouse and one of the smartest handlers of pitchers, especially young ones, in the majors and one of the very few who excels at all three.  If he sticks around long enough for the Astros' luck to turn around in the playoffs, he and the 'Stros could win a spate of World Championships. GRADE: 70