Florida MarlinsThree years ago, as a reward for winning the World Series, then-owner Wayne Huizenga had a hissy fit that he couldn't get a brand new stadium and gave away most of the Marlins starting players. He got a modest return on some of them, but most of them he flat out gave away. Luckily for the future of baseball in South Florida, he sold the team to financier John Henry last year, else he do something more childish like moon the fans. Henry stopped the pilgrimage of talent and GM Dave Dombrowski was allowed to begin the real rebuilding process. Last year, he absolutely swindled the GM of the Diamondbacks, almost as badly as the GM of the Blue Jays did. But the Marlins/Dbacks trade of 1999 will go down as the cornerstone building block of the Marlins' rise to power in the latter part of this upcoming decade.
Last year, the Marlins really only had one offensive threat to begin the year: outfielder Cliff Floyd. Floyd has long been viewed as having Willie McCovey/Darryl Strawberry type talent. Great power and decent to good average, above average speed. Unfortunately, he's never been healthy enough to prove one way or the other. He's given glimpses but never put it together for a season. For instance, last spring, he suffered a knee injury and missed most of April after arthroscopic surgery. He came back in May and hit .278 with 6 homers and 23 RBI. He ruptured an achilles tendon in June and didn't return until mid-September. He hit .363 with 4 homers and 16 RBI in September and October. Stretched over a full year, that becomes an very impressive year. Unfortunately, it only added up to about 2 months worth. Worse, this sort of luck has followed him around his whole career. In his second year in the majors, Todd Hundley crashed into his glove arm and shattered the bones in 3 places. Many feared that would end a very promising career. Floyd persevered on his rehab and looks like he's going to realize his enormous potential one day. The only question is when. I suspect his career path will be similar to that of Ellis Burks, who always had enormous potential when he was with Boston, but was plagued by injuries. After a brief tour in Chicago, he finally came through in Colorado with a couple of huge years, worthy of all the hype he'd endured as a youngster. Anyway, this year, the Marlins have a few more weapons on offense. Mike Lowell came over from the Yankees in exchange for Eddie Yarnall. Little did the Marlins know, their new addition had testicular cancer. So Lowell spent much of last year in life rehab, and the rest in baseball rehab. He did enjoy a September call-up where he put on an impressive display of power. Lowell is healthy this year and if his spring is any indication, it will be well worth the wait for the Marlins: Lowell gets on base, doesn't strike out much for a power hitter and has enough power to hit 25-30 homers. Another revelation for the Marlins was Rookie of the Year runner up, Preston Wilson. The nephew of Met-great Mookie Wilson has always had good power; he stroked 26 homers last year. Strikeouts are his achilles heel. In a big way. In his last year in AAA, he had 121 in 356 ABs. Last year, he had 156 in 482 ABs. He could break Bobby Bonds record of 189 if given a full season of at bats. He also doesn't draw many walks. He did hit .280 in his first year in the bigs, but that was the second highest average he'd ever posted. Most observers think he'll hit close to .260, which is fine, but he'll need to show better judgment at the plate and draw more walks. A sub.300 OBA (his minor league career average) won't keep him in the everyday line-up for very long. Shortstop Alex Gonzales is in a similar situation to Wilson. He has good power, but strikes out a lot and draws even fewer walks. The same with first base candidate Derrek Lee. The Fish have another option at first in Kevin Millar. Even though he bulked up over the winter, Millar doesn't have nearly the power of Lee, but he's a very good contact hitter and draws a healthy number of walks. Millar, who's 4 years older than the 24 year old Lee, has had a very good spring and will likely be the starter to begin the season. Mark Kotsay will start in right field. He was drafted in the first round by the Marlins in 1996. It was thought at the time that he would sail through the minors and be contributing to the major league team in no time because his game was so polished. And that's exactly what happened: he reached the majors a year later. The problem is that he doesn't really have any exceptional tools, so it's looking more and more like the Marlins spent a #1 pick on a 4th or 5th outfielder. Brant Brown will be the 4th outfielder for now. The Marlins have extraordinary utilityman Dave Berg to back up every position but catcher. He doesn't offer much offensively, but it's still amazing that he can play 7 positions reasonably well. Ever since the Marlins traded Charles Johnson for a few weeks of Mike Piazza (who brought Preston Wilson and Ed Yarnall in trade), the catching position has been an offensive black hole for the Marlins. Ramon Castro is slated to be the starter and will probably keep the job by default just because he has a little bit of power. His back up, Mike Redmond, has no power to speak of, although he does get on base. Second baseman Luis Castillo will be an important factor whether the Marlins have an average offense or the worst in the majors once again. Last year was his first where he posted an on base percentage over .320. If he can continue to lead off effectively and get on base 38% of the time as he did in 1999, his tremendous speed will account for plenty of Marlin runs. GRADE: 45
Surprisingly, Florida might have a very good defense. Alex Gonzales has often been compared to the great Ozzie Smith and Rey Ordonez in fielding ability. In fact, the Marlins dealt fielding standout Edgar Renteria because they had Gonzales. Cliff Floyd, Preston Wilson and Mark Kotsay are all above average at running down flyballs. Only Kotsay, however, has a good arm. Brant Brown is also above average with the glove. Lowell, by all accounts is an above average glove man at third and Castillo is a very good fielder with impressive range at second. Both Derrek Lee and Kevin Millar are agile around the bag at first and above average at scooping mistakes out of the dirt. Castro has a strong arm behind the plate, but is not particularly agile. Redmond is a solid backup. GRADE: 65
In 3 years, the Marlins might have the most intimidating starting pitching in baseball. But for now, they'll just have the youngest. Manager John Boles made sure staff ace Alex Fernandez didn't reinjure his shoulder last year by keeping him on a strict pitch count and resting him if he ever felt any discomfort. Consequently, Fernandez' record doesn't really show how well he pitched. It also made sure than Fernandez will be fully recovered this year and ready to log 200+ innings. Vladimir Nunez was one of the pitchers who came over in the Mantei deal. . The Cuban defector, who originally signed with the D-backs in 1996, has all the makings of a top of the roation starter - a fastball that runs in the mid 90's, a good splitter and a biting slider. His only problem is consistency. He has trouble with his release points and has bouts of wildness, both in and out of the strikezone. If he ever gets consistent mechanics, he'll be one of the top pitchers in baseball. Brad Penny also came over in the Mantei deal. Last year, he was the second most talked about pitching prospect in baseball. He's a Saberhagen clone: fastball around 94, great change-up, a good curve and excellent control. All he needs is major league experience. Boles named him the Marlins 5th starter this spring, but don't be surprised if he's the #2 or 3 guy by the end of the year. The scary thing is he's only 22. Ryan Dempster is also quite young (23). He doesn't have the upside of Penny or Nunez, but he has the makings of a quality major league pitcher. Jesus Sanchez is the only lefty in the rotation. He has very good velocity, but like Nunez, has trouble controlling his pitches. AJ Burnett is out for a while with a thumb injury but should be back by mid-season. One of the more free-spirited players in the majors - how many times have you read about his nipple ring? - he defintely has the talent to be an ace. He has a Kevin Brown-like sinking fastball and a good breaking ball, but doesn't control either one particularly well. Until he learns to spot them, he's only going to be a very exciting and frustrating pitcher. Josh Beckett probably won't pitch with the Marlins this year, but he deserved mentioning. He's touted as the next great Texas fireballer, following in the footsteps of Kerry Wood, Roger Clemens and Nolan Ryan. Who knows how he'll do, but he was rather impressive this spring. He'll probably get a brief call-up this September and an opportunity to join the rotation next year. GRADE: 55 (3 years from now: 75)
With Mantei gone to the D-backs, the Marlins needed a closer for what few games they led in the late innings. Antonio Alfonseca, the six- fingered man, got a shot at the job and did reasonably well, saving 21 of 25 chances. He has the pitches to be a good closer (good fastball, nasty slider) and has done nothing this spring to indicate that he can't handle the job. Vic Darensbourg was a closer in the minors and will handle the set-up dutues from the left side. Dan Miceli came over from the Padres to handle the right handed setup. Lefty Armando Almanza has a closer type repertoire and is an intriguing possibility should Alfonseca falter. Braden Looper, who routinely hits 98 with his fastball, was trained as a closer in college and in the minors. Some day, he will be the Marlins closer. Miceli is probably the "soft tosser" in this group and his fastball runs in the low to mid 90s. Not an easy group to hit. GRADE: 60
GM Dave Dombrowski is only the second GM the Marlins have ever had. He put the finishing touches on Carl Barger's blueprint with the '97 championship team. He does a great job of getting quality talent in trade and one day will be allowed to spend some money to put the finishing touches on another championship team. He is an excellent evaluator of talent and a savvy trader. John Boles is not a baseball guy. He was primarily a front office guy and was moved down to the field when Rene Lachemann got fired in 1996. He did a pretty good job finishing out the year, then gladly turned the reigns over to Jim Leyland in 1997. When Leyland left after 98, Boles was again asked to manage. His strength is that he's very honest and straightforward with the players. There are no hidden agendas with Boles. On the field, he's very conservative, hardly ever trying to create offense. In other situations that might not be bad, but the Marlins don't have a lot of offense and so anything a manager can do to boost it - put men in motion, hit-and-run, double steal - would certainly help. Boles has been very good about getting his starters out of games before the log too many pitches. At least he knows where the Marlin's future lies. GRADE: 60