Colorado RockiesAfter finishing in the cellar last season, owner Jerry McMorris decide it was time to clean house. So, going into this season the Rockies have a new GM (Cleveland personnel wiz Dan O'Dowd), a new manager (Buddy Bell) and practically a whole new roster through numerous trades and signings. Star outfielder and Rockie mainstay Larry Walker quipped, "I feel like I'm the one who was traded".
There is a perception that the Rockies have always had a high powered offense. In fantasy terms, this is true. But in real baseball terms, the road statistics tell the story. The Rockies have been consistently near the bottom of the league in scoring on the road. There are a number of theories as to why this is, but the most plausible is that most of the Rockies hitters just haven't been that good and Coors Field disguises this. Because of the altitude, the ball travels farther, and it travels faster to the gaps in the relatively large outfield. The outfielder have to play farther back than they normally would to protect against the extra base hits over their heads and in the process give up more hits in front of them and in the gaps. This advantage makes poor hitters into acceptable ones and good hitters into all-stars. Then why don't Rockies hitters revert to being bad hitters after they leave Coors? Well, there are a number of theories about this too, but the most plausible is that they become more successful due to the environment and thus more confident in their ability. Sorta' like letting a kid win his first time or two playing checkers rather than crushing him/her. Success breeds interest. Failure breeds apathy. OK, enough pop psychology. So what did the Rockies do this offseason to improve their offense. Well, the biggest thing they did was to get Jeff Cirillo. Always considered a good defensive third baseman, Cirillo has never been given a lot of credit offensively because he doesn't hit a lot of home runs. Coors will help his homer totals some but he will most benefit from all those line drives he scorches to the gaps. What were once long singles and occasional doubles, will now be doubles and occasional triples. He's a good contact hitter, he knows the strikezone and is very adaptable to situational hitting. In short, he'll help score runs and drive them in numerous ways. With Todd Helton and Larry Walker, the Rockies have a formidable trio in the middle of their order. The Rockies also brought on Tom Goodwin and Jeffery Hammonds. Goodwin has a reputation for being a leadoff man because of his speed, but he doesn't really get on base enough to maximize that asset. He was brought in for another reason that I'll cover later. Hammonds has a world of talent but I like to refer to him as a "tooDLs" guy, meaning he has the tools to produce a big season but the DL always keeps him from finishing. If he can stay healthy enough to get 500+ at bats, he can probably come close to the kind of seasons that Ellis Burks and Dante Bichette produced in their career years in Colorado. If he can't stay healthy, the Rockies will see more of Edgard Clemente and Darren Bragg, but less production. Although they may suffer somewhat on the defensive side, the Rockies will definitely get more offensive production from their catcher this year with newly acquired Brent Mayne likely to be the starter and either Scott Servais or rookie phenom Ben Petrick filling in. If Mike Lansing is over his back troubles, he adds a decent bat from the middle infield. If not Terry Shumpert will fill in. The question is which Terry Shumpert? Is it the one who hit .347 with 10 homers in 262 at bats last year? Or the one who hit .256 with 11 homers in his previous 260 career games at 2nd base? Shortstop Neifi Perez is still young at 25 years old, but must improve on his .311 on base percentage to become a productive hitter. GRADE: 60
The Rockies will be much better defensively than they've ever been. Cirillo has very good range at third. Neifi Perez is not all that disciplined a player but has a very good arm and good range at short. Second base is a question mark as the Rockies are in wait and see mode about incumbent Mike Lansing's back, but Terry Shumpert is a pretty decent defensive player. Todd Helton is still learning the subtleties of 1st base but he's become at least average defensively and will probably become pretty good in time. The Rockies real strength on defense is in the outfield. Larry Walker is probably the best all around player in the NL, as he does everything very well. He gets good reads on flyballs, good range and a terrific arm. Jeffery Hammonds is also a pretty good defender. He doesn't read the ball off the bat particularly well but he has such phenomenal speed that he can outrun most of his blunders. Tom Goodwin has even better speed and he generally gets good reads on the ball. However, his arm is considered well below average. But between these three, the gaps will become a much tougher place to reach. Behind the plate, both Brent Mayne and Scott Servais are decent but neither is particularly adept at throwing out runners, so keeping the opposition running game in check could be a problem. GRADE: 60
Just as the Rockies offense has been overly celebrated, their pitching has been overly maligned. However, that's not to say that they've been good. Just not as bad as everyone makes them out to be. Pedro Astacio returns as the staff ace after completing the best year of his career. Chalk him up as another guy Tommy Lasorda didn't think would amount to much (Pedro martinez, Paul Konerko, etc.) Although Astacio does not have any overpowering pitches, he does have a solid fastball and probably the most important pitch for a Coors Field pitcher: a very good change up. Breaking pitches don't break as much in the thin air and thus usually end up as mediocre fastballs spinning uselessly until the batter deposits them in Wyoming. Changes in speed, however, as opposed to elevation, are not as affected by the environment. The batter's timing is thrown off and the result is usually either a foul or a weakly hit ball. Dan O'Dowd knew this when he took over and he revamped the rest of the starting staff accordingly. He got rid of fastball/slider pitchers like Jamey Wright in favor of junkball pitchers like Scott Karl. Karl doesn't even have what can be considered a good fastball but you can probably guess what his best pitch is: a change up. O'Dowd kept Brian Bohanon for the very same reason - nothing stuff, but a good change-up. He also brought over Rolando Arrojo and Jose Jimenez. Neither has an exceptional change, but both possess decent fastballs with good sinking action, which is the next best thing to a change-up at Coors. If you can't mess up the hitter's timing, at least keep the ball down in the strikezone in order to induce groundballs and keep it out of the thin air. So the overall plan for the starting pitching is well conceived for the 81 games that the Rockies play in Colorado, but what about those 81 road games? Other than possibly Astacio, these same pitchers don't have a very good record of success. As the saying goes, it could end up as a case of robbing Peter to pay Paul. GRADE: 50
The bullpen has been revamped as well. Most of the Rockies relievers have good fastballs. None of the fastballs are overpowering, but they are good enough to keep hitters honest. Jerry DiPoto re-assumes the closing role after losing the job last year to now-departed Dave Veres. Ex-Giant setup man Julian Tavares, ex-A's closer Billy Taylor and ex-future Cardinal closer Rich Croushore will share set-up duties. Manny Aybar will continue to have the same long man/spot starter duties he had in St. Louis. Everyone in the Rockies bullpen has late game experience and O'Dowd is counting on that experience to finish out the games when the Rockies have the lead. However, it does seem kind of odd that O'Dowd would adopt the exactly opposite philosophy with his bullpen that he took with his starters. None of these guys throws a change, nor do any throw a sinker. Each one throws a breaking pitch as his second pitch. Perhaps the contrast in styles and velocity from his starters to his relievers will be enough to throw the opposing batter's timing off. GRADE: 50
This Dan O'Dowd's first stint as a GM so it's hard to tell how well he'll do when it comes crunch time and he has to go out and get what his team needs in a hurry. However, judging by his offseason moves, he has a good idea of what works at Coors and a very clear plan to what his team needs, so I suspect he'll be able to get what his club needs without opening more holes fairly efficiently. Buddy Bell is also fairly new to the managing side of the game, having managed for a only a couple of years in Detroit. His biggest strength is his rapport with his players. He is a fairly good evaluator of talent and an average game tactician. GRADE: 60