Cincinnati RedsWithout question, the biggest splash this offseason was made by the Reds when they acquired Ken Griffey Jr. Whether it will turn out to be the most significant deal this winter is another question, but it certainly was the most talked about move. GM Jim Bowden was hailed as a genius for bringing Griffey in without significantly altering the 96-win team he had last year. In exchange for Junior, the Reds gave up centerfielder Mike Cameron (whom Griffey will replace), starting pitcher Bret Tomko and 2 prospects, only one of which is considered to have much upside. Not bad when you're getting the player widely regarded as the best in the game. Of course, it helps your leverage when that same player demands to be traded to your team and no other and would have been a free agent at the end of the year anyway.
So what does the arrival of Griffey do for the Reds? Well, it makes them better than they would have been, but how good would they have been? In the other big move this offseason for the Reds, Bowden brought run producer Dante Bichette over from Colorado in exchange for Jeffrey Hammonds and Stan Belinda. Bichette has put up very good numbers the past few years at Coors but it remains to be seen how much he can bring with him. His road numbers the past few years are not what you'd expect from a middle-of-the-order hitter. He has averaged about .270 BA/.310 OBP/.435 SLG with 9 home runs away from Coors for the past 5 years, but Bichette has always maintained he's not about big numbers other than RBI. With Griffey and Larkin hitting ahead of him, the big RBI numbers might still come. However, if he doesn't perform better than he has on the road, then the guys behind him won't get many opportunities and the Big Red offensive machine may suffer from a serious clog. The Reds also may suffer from a lack of baserunners from the lead-off spot. Pokey Reese, who's slated to lead-off, had a career high in batting average, and posted the second highest on base and slugging percentages of his career, including his minor league experience. Even with that, his on base percentage was only .330, which is fairly low for a leadoff hitter. He's probably better suited to hit down in the order. Barry Larkin and his career .376 OBP is a good candidate to take over leadoff duties if Reese struggles. Sean Casey is already one of the better hitters in the National League and should hit in the 3rd spot in front of Griffey and Bichette. Ed Taubensee has come a long way from being selected by the Reds in the 1986 draft: a Rule 5 selection by the A's in 1990, waived a year later, picked up by the Indians in 1991, traded to the Astros for Kenny Lofton (a trade for which he will probably never quiet the critics), then traded to the Reds in 1994 for Ross Powell and Marty Lister (Taubensee evened the score with that one). Like many catchers, he's come into his own offensively later in his career. At 31, he posted career highs in average, OBP and slugging and there's no reason to think that he can't continue to maintain his current levels for another couple of years. Dmitri Young is almost as well traveled as Taubensee: drafted by the Cards, traded to the Reds, selected by the Devil Rays in the expansion draft, then traded back to the Reds. And like Taubensee, Young posted career highs in slugging, and near highs in the other 2 averages. But Dmitri is only 26, so he's still got plenty of room to grow. For whatever reason, he is once again rumored to be on the trading block, this time for some front line starting pitching. If the Reds do trade him, they'd better get an ace because Dmitri Young is developing into a pretty good hitter. Third baseman Aaron Boone batted near or at the bottom of the Reds order last year and thrived in the role. He's still only 27 so there's a good chance he will improve as well. The bench is pretty decent, with veteran catcher Benito Santiago in his second stint with the Reds and outfielder Michael Tucker and 1st baseman Hal Morris. Deion Sanders is trying to make the team after a 2-year layoff to play football, but his early spring returns are not promising. The Reds do have some promising bats in the farm system that could see action this year: catcher Jason LaRue, shortstop Travis "Gookie" Dawkins and former LSU slugging hero Brandon Larson, now playing 3rd base. The Reds could have a very good offense if things break the way they did last year. However, if Young is dealt, or Bichette doesn't produce better than his road numbers or Pokey Reese comes back to earth, the Reds could have some tough holes to fill in their line-up. GRADE: 60
The Reds are the best defensive team in the majors in the middle of the field. Barry Larkin, Ken Griffey Jr and Pokey Reese have all won Gold Glove awards and deservedly so. Although Larkin's range has been declining for a couple of years now, he's still a very solid fielder at short. Reese and Griffey are still at the top of their game, although it looks like Griffey's run of 10 straight gold gloves in center might come to an end now that he's in the same league with Andruw Jones. Reese, barring a debilitating injury or a complete mental breakdown, will continue to populate his mantle with fielding awards. Boone was solid to above average in his first full year at third. The other positions, however, will be a problem for the Reds. Bichette hasn't been a good fielder in several years and at 36, he's not likely to get better. Young, while a good hitter, is a first baseman playing the outfield. Sean Casey is getting better with the glove but is far from cat-like. And Ed Taubensee, like Casey, has never been particularly adept on the defensive side, and has always had trouble throwing out runners. Last year, he threw out the lowest percentage of baserunners in the majors of any regular catcher: 13%. GRADE: 60
Last year, the Reds had only one starter win more than 11 games. For a team that won 96, that means either the starters suffered a lot of injuries or the bullpen had a lot of work. In this case, it was both. Pete Harnisch carried the starting load for much of the year but was reduced to a 6 inning starter late in the season due to concerns about his ailing shoulder. Denny Neagle spent most of the year sitting due to weakness in his shoulder, but came back with a flourish to win his last 6 decisions. Steve Parris and Ron Villone posted career highs in wins to help keep the Reds in the race. While Neagle looks healthy this year, there are still some concerns about Harnisch's health. There are definitely questions whether Parris and Villone can match their career years. Another concern for the starters will be the outfield defense. Griffey brings about the same defensive skills as Mike Cameron had in center but Bichette is a substantial step down from Greg Vaughn, although Vaughn is not much more than average. With Young's shortcomings in the field, this puts an extra demand on Griffey to cover more ground. None of the Reds starters are particularly strong groundball pitchers, so this might be of some concern. The Reds do have better depth this year, with veteran journeyman Mark Portugal, rookie phenom Rob Bell, and Cuban reclamation project Osvaldo Fernandez, who has been fairly solid this spring. But even if Neagle and Harnisch are 100% this year, none of the remaining candidates look strong enough to make this rotation a legitimate threat to the Astros. GRADE: 50
The Cincinnati bullpen was probably the biggest reason why the Reds won 96 games last year. Manager Jack McKeon got 20 wins and 46 saves from his two closers, Scott Williamson and Danny Graves. He also got over 200 innings work from them. Setup Scott Sullivan also contributed over 100 innings. And that may be the death knell of the Reds this year. Several studies have shown that most relievers who throw over 100 innings in one year are less effective the following year, by as much as 2 points in ERA. Williamson, who had an excellent spring last year, is struggling this spring and could be showing signs of a breakdown from last year's workload. Lefties Dennys Reyes and Gabe White were spared the heavy workload, and given the iffy nature of both the starting rotation and the bullpen, could see significantly more work. Scott Winchester, who came over from Cleveland with Graves in 1998, will likely round out the bullpen. If the Reds bullpen can equal it's effort from last year, they might be able to hang on in the division and wild card races. GRADE: 60
Jim Bowden is recognized as one of the most creative and successful GMs in baseball. With one of the smaller budgets in the majors, he has managed to field competitive teams almost every year he's been in Cincy. Now that the farm system is starting to produce players, he has been very cautious about trading away any of his homegrown talent for anything but a bona fide big league player. However, that has not stopped him from making very good deals for the Reds at the deadline and in the offseason. Jack McKeon has been both a manager and a GM and has enjoyed decent success as both. Last year was probably his best year of managing, getting good years from a number of previously anonymous sources. However, he may have paid a high price with his heavy usage of the bullpen. He a decent game tactician and few players have been disgruntled with his gruff, tell-it-like-it-is style. GRADE: 65