Chicago Cubs

A lot of things broke the Cubs' way in 1998, when they won the wild card.  Just as many went south last year when they struggled to 67 wins.  Rather than rolling the dice again, GM Ed Lynch has made a number of moves this offseason, perhaps his last if the Cubs don't show significant improvement.  The biggest acquisition was new manager Don Baylor, who is known for being a disciplinarian.  His new style should promote more consistent play, but it's questionable whether or not his tactical skills will undermine the improvement.

For the past 2 years, the Cubs offense has basically been Sammy Sosa, Mark Grace and Henry Rodriguez.  As you might imagine, it's pretty hard to generate any offense when you have 6 guys making outs on a pretty regular basis.  So Lynch reduced the number of outmakers by one when he traded for Eric Young.  Young has always maintained that he patterned his play after Hall of Fame second baseman Joe Morgan.  OK, so he doesn't have Morgan's power or defense, but he's short, he gets on base at a good rate and he steals lots of bases.  Having Young at the top of the order should mean an additional 50 RBI to split between the Cubs' 3-4-5 hitters.  Lynch also traded to bring in centerfielder Damon Buford.  This will not be nearly as helpful as the Young deal.  Buford, simply put, is not productive enough to play everyday.  Where in the line-up do you put a guy who has a .312 OBP and a .389 slugging percentage?  Certainly not getting 500 at bats a year.  Uber-prospect Corey Patterson is the centerfielder in waiting, but has yet to play as high as AA.  He'll start there this year and will probably man center field in Wrigley no later than the end of next year.  He has tremendous power and speed and good instincts on the basepaths.  Think Kenny Lofton with home run power.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, he probably won't be ready for the big time this year.
Lynch also brought in SS Ricky Gutierrez and catcher Joe Girardi as free agents.  These guys aren't much better than Buford, if at all.  Gutierrez brings a lifetime .335 OBP and a .334 SLG to Wrigley, while Girardi offers .316/.354.  Granted, these three players are more noted for their defense, but you have to score at least one run in order to win.  Third baseman Shane Andrews was claimed off waivers last year from the Expos and has good power.  His problem is getting on base (.295 career OBP) and strikeouts (averages 151 per 500 ABs).  He shown more patience this spring so there is a chance that he can become a productive hitter if can continue to draw walks.  Grace and Rodriguez will both continue to be productive, especially if Rodriguez can build on the patience he demonstrated last year at the plate.  He set career highs in OBP and batting average in 1999.  Grace will continue to be a fairly productive first baseman and everyone will continue to wonder how he does it without hitting home runs.  He gets on base and hits LOTS of doubles, folks. Lynch did make an intriguing trade recently with an eye on the interim centerfield problem.  He traded reliever Rodney Myers to the Padres for Gary Matthews, Jr.  "Sarge Lite", nicknamed for his father "Gary "Sarge" Matthews who patrolled center field for a number of teams including the Cubs, has always had good discipline at the plate, decent power and good speed.  If Buford doesn't work out, then the switch-hitting Matthews becomes a very intriguing possibility.  The bench has some sock with Glenallen Hill, Jeff Reed and spring slugging phenom Julio Zuleta, who might replace Grace in a year or two.  But there's not much else there.  Lastly, Sammy Sosa will continue his home run barrage on the NL, unless... Don Baylor insists that the Cubs will steal more bases this year.  He specifically indicated that Sosa would steal more.  While it's an exciting part of the game, it can be counter productive with a team's best hitters.  Why?  Two reasons in this case.  First, he's playing in one of the best hitters parks in the majors so unless he's terribly worried about double plays, risking the extra outs just isn't worth it.  And secondly, it increases the chances of hand and ankle injuries.  So is it worth losing Sosa for a week or two due to a sprained ankle just because you wanted to be able to score him on a single?  Hopefully, Baylor will realize that losing his best hitters for any stretch of time will be devastating to this offense that'll probably have enough difficulty scoring.  GRADE: 45

The Cubs defense will be a little better than last year overall.  They will get more consistent play from the shortstop with Gutierrez, who is sure handed with adequate range, and at third with Andrews.  Buford is considered a very good centerfielder, even though his range seems a bit limited.  If Matthews gets the call, he will be a very good defensive player in center.  Sosa's always had good range and a great arm and now he's hitting the cutoff man and becoming a formidable defender.  Grace will still be a very good defensive first baseman and Henry Rodriguez is getting better, although he still looks like a first baseman out there at times.  Eric Young is not particularly adept with the glove, but the Cubs didn't particularly care, considering the defense they got out of last year's second baseman and at least they're getting good offensive from that spot this year.  The biggest boost will come from behind the plate, where Joe Girardi will prove his value.  Girardi began his career with the Cubs before tours with the Rockies and then with the Yankees the last 4 years.  In 1995, Girardi's last year with the Rockies and the only year they've made the playoffs, the Rockies had an ERA of 4.96.  The next year, their ERA went up to 5.59 with basically the same pitching staff.  Over the course of a season, that works out to be about 100 extra earned runs.  A discrepancy like that might be caused by any number of reasons, but it's pretty certain that in this case, the absence of Joe Girardi played a part in it.  As a matter of fact, when Bob Watson went to George Steinbrenner saying the Yanks were gonna sign this guy, Steinbrenner looked at his offensive numbers and wasn't amused.  But Watson told him, "yeah, but this guy is gonna save us 80-100 runs with his defense and his game calling skills".  The Yanks signed him in 1996 and the rest is history... sort of.  They had a good team to begin with... but back to the Cubs.  Girardi will definitely be a huge boon to stopping the opposing running game and it would not be at all surprising to see the Cubs shave off a half run or more in team ERA this year.  GRADE: 55

The Cubs starting pitching will be much better than last years for two reasons: 1) Joe Girardi, and 2) the return of Kerry Wood.  Not since Doc Gooden's incredible rookie year has a pitcher been so dominant at such a young age.  Wood looks healthy and fully recovered from his Tommy John elbow ligament transplant surgery.  But the Cubs are being wisely cautious with him.  No one, except for National League hitters, wants to chance losing him or ruining him.  Don Baylor recently stated Wood wouldn't pitch in the regular season until June, but that might be because the Cubs have very few games in warm weather cities before June.  Regardless, if the weather is warm in Chicago in May, look for Wood to be pitching in Wrigley.  Kevin Tapani is coming off a sub par year, and should be better, but it's hard to imagine him ever winning 19 games again like he did in that magical '98 season.  One big reason is he's unlikely to get 6.25 runs of support from this Cubs' offense.  Many people in baseball have wondered why Jon Lieber hasn't won more than he has,  He has a good fastball and change and a devastating slider.  But for whatever reason, he simply hasn't learned to pitch.  If he can learn to set hitters up, he has the stuff to win a lot of games.  Ismael Valdes is sorta' in the same boat as Lieber - good stuff, bad results - although Valdes relies more on control that just pure stuff.  Lieber and Valdes both have good upside, so if Girardi can connect with them, the Cubs could, along with Wood, have 3 formidable starters.  The final spot in the rotation will be filled by one of the following spring contestants: Todd Van Poppel, Kyle Farnsworth, Andrew Lorraine or Micah Bowie.  Is it too late to go to a 4 man rotation?  If Mike Meyers continues to progress and dominate the way he did las year at 2 levels, he could be the 5th starter by June.  He doesn't have overwhelming stuff, but has excellent control of four pitches and knows how to pitch... sorta' like another Cub pitching prospect from about 15 years ago: Greg Maddux.  GRADE: 60

The Cubs bullpen was pretty bad last year, and frankly doesn't look too much better this year.  Rick Aguilera returns as the closer but he's 38 and nearing the end of his career.  The Cubs do have two decent lefties in Felix Heredia and Mark Guthrie.  The problem is from the right side.  If Kyle Farnsworth doesn't make the rotation, with his velocity, he could be a solid reliever.  Matt Karchner will be the primary right-handed setup by default.  Phillip Norton, another lefty, is staking a claim with a strong spring.  Rodney Myers, who was probably the Cubs best right hander down the stretch last year, is gone to San Diego, so the Cubs will have to figure something out before too long.  Ray King is the only other reliever they have who has any promise.  GRADE: 40

The Cubs braintrust has a spotty record over the past few years. They did get Tapani and HRod fairly cheaply, but they gave away Doug Glanville, Terry Mulholland and Jose Hernandez.  They improved the defense, but did very little to improve an offense that was ranked 13th and playing in one of the better hitter's parks in the majors.  And Ed Lynch has not shown a great deal of savvy with the deadline deal.  In fact the last time the Cubs made a good mid-season trade was made when Lynch was still playing back in 1984, when they acquired Rick Sutcliffe.  Even then, they gave up Joe Carter and Mel Hall to get him.  Don Baylor likes to make things happen on offense, so he's always putting men in motion, stealing bases, hitting and running... which is great if you play in a park where runs are hard to come by.  But Wrigley isn't one of those.  Neither was his last managerial stop, Coors.  He does bring discipline to a team desperately in need of it and he is a pretty good swing doctor, helping Andres Galarraga salvage his career and Chipper Jones to an MVP.  So maybe he can coax a little more offensive production from the Cubs than expected.  His record as a handler of pitchers is mixed.  It's further muddled by the fact that Coors is particularly harsh on pitchers because of the weather and because of the altitudes effects.  His stint in Chicago should give a better indication of how well he handles this aspect of managing.  GRADE: 45