Baltimore Orioles
 

The Baltimore Orioles were a very good team 4 years ago.  It's amazing how fast and how far things can go south.  It is conceivable that the 2001 Orioles will be historically bad.  Probably not 1962 Mets bad (a team that won only 40 games) or 1899 Cleveland Spiders bad (a team that went 20-134) or 1906 Boston Beaneaters bad (a team that finished 66.5 games out of first), but pretty bad.  Think 1988 Orioles that lost 107 games and 21 in a row to start the season.
 

Offense

The Orioles hopes for respectability were dealt a serious blow when Albert Belle's career came to an end due to a degenerative hip.  He was their one legitimate offensive threat.  Chris Richard now assumes the title of #1 threat in the line-up, which probably tells everything you need to know about the Oriole's line-up: he's a 27-year old first baseman without a position and 215 career major league at bats.  The reason Richard doesn't have a position is because rather than addressing more urgent needs, the Orioles signed David Segui, a first baseman, to play the one position they have covered.  Richard will probably be moved to the outfield, which will make two players out of their natural position in the outfield.  The other is Delino DeShields, who had somewhat of a renaissance year in 2000, but was moved because of the emergence of Jerry Hairston, Jr.  Hairston is a terrific fielding second baseman who has good on base skills and might develop a modicum of power.  Mike Bordick re-upped with the O's to cover second.  Brady Anderson and Cal Ripken, both getting up in years will probably bat in the heart of the order.  Brook Fordyce will garner most of the at bats from behind the plate.  Jeff Conine will take turns in the outfield and at DH.  The O's will field a line-up of 9 hitters capable of hitting at least 10 homers.  However, with the exception of Richard, they probably won't have anyone hit more than 20.  Given the fact that they posted the third worst on base percentage of any team in the AL last year WITH Albert Belle, this lack of boppage does not bode well for the O's run-scoring fortunes.  RATING: 45
 

Defense

The O's are not a good fielding team.  They ranked 10th in putouts, 12th in assists, 11th in double plays, yet committed the 6th most errors in the AL.  Only Hairston and Segui are above average fielders in both range and sure-handedness.  RATING: 40
 

Starting Pitching

The O's lost one of the best pitchers in baseball, Mike Mussina, to free agency.  They filled his spot in the rotation with Pat Hentgen, a game pitcher who's coming off a 15-win campaign in St. Louis.  The big difference here is that Hentgen probably won't be getting the 6.21 runs per game he got in St. Lou.  Nor will he have a deep veteran bullpen closing out his games.  It's been 4 years since Hentgen posted a good year on his own merits.  Sidney Ponson has shown tremendous promise, but his workload over the past 2 years has been quite heavy for someone as young as he (24).  That kind of workload almost invariably leads to arm problems and surgery.  Jose Mercedes was a revelation in 2000, winning 14 games.  However, his secondary numbers (hits allowed/innings pitched and strikeout/walk ratios) don't really support someone with his record and ERA.  Either he became one of the greatest clutch pitchers in the last 25 years, or he was just really lucky.  Scott Erickson, who would normally be considered the ace of this staff, is out until late in the year recovering from shoulder surgery.  The rest of the rotation will consist of whoever has the hot hand that week, with Jay Spurgeon, Matt Riley and Jason Johnson being the most likely candidates.  Riley has a chance to become a very good starter, but has already had troubles with injuries.  Manager Mike Hargrove's haphazard handling of young pitchers doesn't bode well for that trend to end anytime soon.  Chuck McElroy, who has spent his career as a reliever, will be making a bid for the rotation this spring.  RATING: 40
 

Bullpen

Between Mike Trombley, Mike Timlin and Ryan Kohlmeier the O's had a closer... sort of.  After Timlin was traded to the Cards last season, Kohlmeier took over the role and fared pretty well.  But like Mercedes in the rotation, his secondary numbers don't really support his performance.  On the plus side, his minor league numbers show definite closer potential.  If Kohlmeier is for real, Trombley, Buddy Groom, and Alan Mills will offer veteran set-up support.  If he's not, then the O's bullpen situation could get ugly.  RATING: 50
 

Management

Mike Hargove got a reputation as a manager who could never win the big one.  With the teams he had in Cleveland, that reputation is not hard to understand.  Now he is faced with  a team that is MUCH less talented than those Tribe ballclubs.  Will he be able to get them to overachieve?  Um, probably not.  The O's are the only team in baseball that doesn't have a GM.  That's because the owner, Peter Angelos, fancies himself a baseball man, and he makes all the personnel decisions, occasionally taking the advice of his Executive Vice President in charge of Baseball Operations, Syd Thrift.  Thrift was a pretty good GM back in the 80's and 90's but is now handcuffed by the roto-happy owner who has managed to drive away two excellent GMs (Pat Gillick and Frank Wren) and one manager of the year (Davey Johnson) with his constant interference.  RATING: 35
 

Conclusion

Sorry O's fans, but 2001 is gonna be a long year for you.  With most of their games coming against intradivision rivals this season and all of those teams improving, the O's seem destined for a 100-loss season.  On the bright side, it's only 5 months til Ravens pre-season football.