Baltimore OriolesAs expected, Peter Angelos cleaned house this winter, placing the blame by implication that Orioles failures were due to a poor GM and a bad manager. We'll never know if those two assumptions were true because Frank Wren and Ray Miller never got to do their job. Angelos continues to meddle in the day to day baseball operations and continuously undermines the people he hires to serve as the Orioles brain trust. This year he promoted advisor Syd Thrift to the general manger's position and plucked Mike Hargrove from the unemployed list to manage. But unless he allows these two to do their job without interference, the results will be the same and next year, there'll be two more names added to his already long list of ex-GMs and ex-managers.
On paper, the Baltimore offense would make a good fantasy baseball team. Or at least an expensive one. BJ Surhoff was the O's most productive hitter last year, establishing career highs in slugging, runs and RBI. But at 35, that's about as high as he goes. Albert Belle got off to a rough start, but still managed to eclipse the .900 mark in OPS and drove in 100+ runs for the 8th straight year. In fact, his 1000 RBI since 1991 is the most over an eight-year period since Jimmie Foxx drove in 1142 from 1931-1938. Belle is 33, so he still has a few more years of this kind of production. Brady Anderson is 36 but you wouldn't know it by his numbers. Last year, he established a career high in on base (.404) and posted the second highest slugging percentage of his career. But like Surhoff, that's probably the last we'll say that. Joining the 2000 version of the Wheeze Kids are 36-year old Will Clark, 34-year old Mike Bordick, 41-year old Harold Baines and 39-year old Cal Ripken. Ripken also had a big 1999, posting the highest OPS of his storied career. While it's certainly possible for these guys to equal their production from last year, at their age it is highly unlikely. What is more likely is for them to realize the signs of aging and a drop off in production and an increased number of injuries. Delino DeShields had one his worst years as a major leaguer. He's a good candidate to bounce back. If he can avoid the injuries that seem to follow him, he's a good bet to post career best numbers in slugging (due to the park) and steal 40 bases. Charles Johnson is the last piece of the Orioles offense and, along with a healthy DeShields, the only hope to offset the inevitable drop off in production from the rest of the offense. Johnson, always an outstanding defensive player, just turned 28, an age when many catchers seem to click on offensively. The reason for this "switch on" is that much of their early career is spent learning the nuances of calling a major league game. After a few years getting things down like setting up a hitter, calming down a pitcher, influencing an ump, they can refocus their efforts on the offensive side. Anyway, Johnson has always struggled making contact but has hit the ball a mile whenever he did. This year, expect him to best his AA numbers when he hit .264 and smacked 28 bombs. The O's bench is above average, with Jeff Conine, Greg Myers, Rich Amaral and youngster Jesse Garcia. Second baseman Jerry Hairston and monster mashing first baseman Calvin Pickering are waiting in AAA in case of injuries. GRADE: 50
One thing that was always present in the great O's teams of the past was excellent defense. By definition then, this is not a great O's team. Belle and Anderson have well below average range at their positions and Surhoff is merely average. Belle possesses the only decent arm in the outfield. Bordick is a workman-like shortstop with a good range, soft hands and good instincts for the ball. DeShields has a slightly above average range but has poor footwork, leading to lots of awkward throws, and stiff hands, which leads to a lot of adventures on routine plays. At third, Ripken makes an ideal first baseman. Unfortunately, Will Clark, who was once a good gloveman, occupies that position. Ripken's range at third was third worst in the majors among regulars. Charles Johnson is the best defensive catcher in the majors outside of Texas. GRADE: 40
Another characteristic of the great O's teams was very good starting pitching. The O's are headed in the right direction on this front. Mike Mussina has the second best winning percentage of any active starting pitcher with more than 100 decisions. He's a great student of the game, master of 4 above average pitches (fastball, sinking fastball, straight change, knuckle curve) and author of one of the best responses to a stupid question in the past decade. After he was hit in the face by a line-drive off the bat of Sandy Alomar, USA Today's Mel Antonen asked Mussina what it felt like. Mussina responded, "Anyone got a bat?" Scott Erickson has been injured this spring, but is due to return sometime in May. He is a great groundball pitcher and has no-hit kind of stuff. So as long as the ball is hit to Bordick, he should be OK. The O's have three studly youngsters in Sidney Ponson, Jason Johnson and Matt Riley. Ponson has shown steady improvement in his first two years in the majors (he's only 23) and a good bet to become an All-Star in the next few years. Johnson doesn't have Ponson's upside but can be a serviceable number 3 or 4 starter. Riley is the first legitimate lefty the O's have developed since Mike Flanagan. Riley has got star written all over him, but has yet to seriously apply his tools. If he ever becomes motivated, the O's could have 4 very tough starters. For now, Riley will begin the season in AAA. In the meantime, Pat Rapp, Calvin Maduro and Jose Mercedes will divide up the starts for the 4th and 5th starters. Maduro, who was once traded with Garrett Stephenson for Todd Zeile and Pete Incaviglia, has the most upside of the three, but still struggles with overthrowing and giving up homers. GRADE: 60
Unfortunately for the O's, the starters probably can't pitch every inning this season. At some point, the bullpen will come into play and that's when they're in trouble. Mike Timlin is the designated closer, although the O's definition of closer and everyone else's seem to be two dramatically different things. Timlin has a save percentage of 69.7%. Of his 142 career opportunities, he's blown 43 of them. Last year, he only blew 9 of 36, which has to counted as a blessing. There's nothing wrong with his repertoire, which includes a mid-90's fastball and a very good slider. It's just that he has a bad habit of throwing them right over the middle of the plate. Mike Trombley also inhabits this bullpen and might see some closing opportunities. He's only blown 16 of his 50 career opportunities, although last year he was a respectable 24 for 30. Journeyman Buddy Groom and rookie BJ Ryan will hopefully provide relief from the left side. Tim Worrell will serve as the long reliever. GRADE: 40
Syd Thrift has been in baseball forever. He is a decent judge of talent. However, that may be a moot point as owner Peter Angelos has the final say in any transaction. Until he decides to stop playing fantasy baseball with real players, the GM position for the Orioles is merely a decoration. Mike Hargrove has a reputation for being a player's manager and a disciplinarian. But his teams have been notorious for making dumb mistakes in crucial situations - remember Manny Ramirez getting picked off first in Game 6 of the 1995 World Series? - so there's little evidence that his discipline pays off. In addition, he's never dispelled the notion that he is a poor game tactician. Working in his favor is that he succeeding a terrible game tactician and a manager who was not well liked by his players. GRADE: 45