Arizona DiamondbacksThe D-backs are caught between a rock and a hard place this year: they are an older team than most, their farm system doesn't have any replacements should anyone go down and Colangelo already spent his load to bring them into contention. They'll have to walk a fine line to repeat last year's success.
The offense was fueled by a number of peak years, including big seasons from Matt Williams, Jay Bell and Steve Finley. Each of those guys is at least 34 years old this year, and edging into the declining years of production. How well each of those guys can stay healthy and stave off Father Time will key Arizona's fortunes. Luis Gonzales also had a big year. He had been showing signs of just such a breakout for several years. However, he's 32 and not likely to significantly improve on last year's numbers. Phenom Travis Lee struggled last year but is a good candidate for a rebound. A number of observers said that it looked like he had completely abandoned what had gotten him to the majors in the first place: namely using his quick hands and wrists. Lee looked at film this winter, concentrated on reestablishing his technique and judging from his spring results so far, has worked out his flaws. Bernard Gilkey and David Delucci will provide quality depth if anyone goes down in the outfield. Is "Erubial Durazo" Spanish for "Steve Nebraska"? Well, maybe not. But the guy who started out as a pitcher has turned into a very good hitter.
Along those same lines, how impressive are the movies at predicting the future of baseball?!?!
1) 'Back to the Future, Part 2' was released in 1989. In the sports almanac from the "future", it listed Florida as the 1997 World Series winner. Florida hadn't even been selected as an expansion site until 1991, and didn't come into existence until 1993.
2) 'Major League' came out in 1989 as well. The Indians had not had a winning season in 3 years (one of only 4 in the previous 30) and hadn't contended for the division title since 1959. The movie Indians came to prominence on the strength of a speedy centerfielder who led the league in steals, an enigmatic right fielder who bashes tape measure home runs, a flame throwing starter and a supporting cast of good young players. In 1993, the Tribe finished 6th in the AL East, 19 games out. When baseball stopped in 1994, they were 1 game back of the White Sox (their nemesis in 'ML2', which BTW was released in the spring of 1994), led by a speedy centerfielder who led the league in steals (Lofton), an enigmatic homer happy right fielder (Belle) and a bunch of good young players. OK, 3 out of 4 ain't bad.
So this all begs the question: when will Gary Coleman be given a managerial position? For those of you who don't remember, he played a vendor's genius son who, through extenuating circumstances, ends up managing the Padres to the postseason in the 1979 "classic", The Kid from Left Field.
Anyway, back to Durazo. He had a phenomenal rise through AA and AAA, hitting over .400 at each stop, before finishing the season as Arizona's starting first baseman. There's nothing in his numbers to suggest he's not legit, so the offense should get a boost from him being in the line-up for a full season. GRADE: 60
On defense, the Diamondbacks could be in trouble, especially if they suffer any significant injuries. Manager Buck Showalter is trying Tony Womack at shortstop this year. For a guy who was not particularly good in the outfield or, before that, second base, shortstop seems like the last place you'd want to put him. There's also the possibility of moving Jay Bell back to shortstop and Womack to second, but both were average at best the last time they played there. Andy Fox is a serviceable replacement around the infield for days off, and there are questions about Hanley Frias' glove. Finley is pretty good at tracking fly balls but doesn't have the range he once did. Gonzales is below average and Travis Lee, if he wins the right field job, doesn't possess a great deal of range. At best, this team is average on defense. GRADE: 50
The starting pitching is the strength of this team. Randy Johnson is phenomenal. Had he gotten league average run support, he might have won 24 games last year. Regardless, he led the league in innings pitched, ERA, complete games and strikeouts in winning his second Cy Young award. Omar Daal has turned into a solid middle of the rotation lefty and Todd Stottlemyre is decent when healthy. Brian Anderson will capably take Andy Benes' place in the rotation. And Armando Reynoso will junkball his way through 25+ starts. Hard throwing John Patterson will start the season in AAA. If his AFL results are any indication, he will be ready for the majors should anyone go down. And that might occur sooner than expected: Todd Stottlemyre, who battled a torn rotator cuff last season did not have surgery to correct it this offseason and is a good candidate for a blow out. GRADE: 65
The bullpen was blamed for much of the Diamondbacks early season woes a year ago. By the time the season ended, they had become one of the better staffs in the bigs. However, the Diamondbacks lost former closer Gregg Olson to free agency and top setup Bobby Chouinard to criminal circumstances. Russ Springer and Brad Clontz are not quite equivalent replacements, so even with the emergence of Matt Mantei as a premier closer and Byung Hyun Kim as a setup, Arizona looks vulnerable in the middle innings. GRADE: 50
If the D-backs can stay healthy, they should be competitive. However, any significant early injuries might spell the end of their season. GM Joe Garagiola Jr hasn't shown a great deal of acumen when it comes to making trades to improve his club, short or long term. Last year, the bullpen needed help. So he traded his starting shortstop, Tony Batista, who ended up hitting 30 homers (.848 OPS) between Arizona and Toronto, for setup reliever Dan Plesac. His club struggled with the shortstop position for the rest of the season and this year they'll probably end up trying half the roster in that position. Then he traded 3 of the 100 best prospects in baseball, Brad Penny, Vladimir Nunez and Abraham Nunez to the Marlins for Mantei. While Mantei was very good for them, the bullpen wasn't strong enough to get games to him when it counted in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks were and still are short in the bullpen where Brad and Vlad would have helped. For the long term, they're out 3 potential star players. At this rate, if Matt Williams or Jay Bell get injured this year, he might trade his entire AA franchise for a replacement. Manager Buck Showalter runs a tight ship and has the reputation of being a very good game tactician. GRADE: 60